Best doesn’t always win

Year after year, the Kentucky Derby proves one thing: The best horse doesn't have to win.

The best example in recent memory is Point Given. After losing the 2001 Derby to Monarchos, Point Given won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes convincingly. He was the best horse of his generation, just not on Derby Day.

I bring this up because of Big Brown, the 3-1 favorite in Saturday's Derby.

The bay colt looks invincible after only three career starts, all crushing wins. However, I don't think Big Brown will win after drawing post 20, the farthest outside post in a 20-horse field -- even if he is the best horse going in.

I've been to the Derby 15 times in my career. Many winning jockeys have told me the same thing: A key to winning is saving ground at some point of the race.

That doesn't mean being glued to the rail like Calvin Borel on Street Sense last year. It means not being stuck four or five wide around the turns or down the backstretch.

Big Brown can win if jockey Kent Desormeaux can tuck in close to the rail during the first run past the grandstand.

Still, it's a dicey proposition. As a bettor and handicapper, I will try to beat Big Brown. Another factor is his price. At 3-1 odds from post 20, he's a strong underlay.

Here are my top five Derby picks, in reverse order:

• Visionaire, 20-1. His Gotham win over a sloppy track at Aqueduct was remarkable. Plus, his Blue Grass finish was a lot better than it looked. Visionaire is the only horse I have in the Derby future book at 150-1 odds at Wynn Las Vegas.

• Cowboy Cal, 20-1. This Todd Pletcher-trained colt ran second to stablemate Monba in the Blue Grass. But his race was better because the Keeneland Polytrack has been death to speed horses. While I expect a fast Derby pace, Cowboy Cal as proven he does not need the lead to win.

• Colonel John, 4-1. California 3-year-olds have proven their class if Gayego and Behindatthebar are good indicators. Both shipped from California to win a Derby prep. Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John should be able to make a seamless switch from synthetic surfaces to the Churchill dirt.

• Pyro, 6-1. There's actually some value with Pyro, who has been even money or less in his last three starts. His 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass was so bad, it has chased many supporters. If you're a forgiving handicapper, Pyro could reward your loyalty.

• Derby pick: Z Fortune, 15-1. The colt's runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby was a great effort. He earned a 102 Beyer rating while racing four wide around both turns at Oaklawn. If jockey Robby Albarado can save some ground from post 6, the race shape should flatter the horse's closing style.

Steve Asmussen, who trains Pyro and Z Fortune, sent off Curlin in last year's Derby. How fitting it would be for Asmussen to win this year after watching Curlin finish third. Despite the Derby loss, Curlin proved to be the best of his generation, being honored as 2007's champion 3-year-old and Horse of the Year.

Richard Eng's horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.