Gas prices falling ahead of Thanksgiving. How low can they get?

Travel club AAA says prices at the pump have already declined 13 cents a gallon nationally compared to last week and should fall further.

“Gas prices could ultimately fall 20-30 cents per gallon,” AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins said in AAA’s weekly Gas Price Update. “The downturn is being driven by strong refinery output, which led to a big gain in gasoline supplies.”

Thanksgiving is traditionally a major driving holiday as millions of Americans strap themselves in for long journeys to dine with out-of-town family members. AAA expects 49 million people to travel by car during the holiday weekend, making it one of the busiest Thanksgivings in the last 20 years.

The national average per-gallon price for regular unleaded was $3.61 on Wednesday, down from $3.80 a gallon a month ago.

Factored into the national average are much-higher prices in western states, including California at $5.16 and Nevada at $4.77. Consumers in 11 states across the South are paying less than $3.30 per gallon.

Gas prices in Southern Nevada have steadily dropped over the past few weeks, but especially so in the last week.

The average price of regular unleaded fuel on Wednesday was $4.73 per gallon. That price is down 7 cents from the day before and 26 cents lower than one week ago. The price is 30 cents lower than what drivers were paying a month ago.

Despite the recent decline in price, drivers will be paying far more than they did during the Thanksgiving holiday last year when the average price in Las Vegas was $3.95 a gallon.

Statewide the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded Wednesday was 6 cents lower than Tuesday’s average and 21 cents lower than last week. Last year, the average price in Nevada was $3.97 per gallon.

“The drop is due to lower demand, typical for winter when days are shorter and weather gets crummier,” said AAA spokesman John Treanor. “Domestic gasoline stocks are also up, that increase in supply is another major factor in lower costs.”

Those who are members of wholesale clubs, such as Costco, can find even cheaper prices. The Costco in Henderson was selling regular unleaded gas at $4.15 per gallon, according to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at the price-comparison website GasBuddy.com.

The price of gas is expected to continue to fall and prices in Las Vegascould even sink below an average of $4 per gallon by Christmas, DeHaan said.

“It is possible at the rate the price is falling now,” DeHaan said. “But all it takes is one refinery issue to send prices back up.”

The news is even better nationwide. Tens of thousands of stations around the country are already selling gas under $3 per gallon, and thousands more will join in the next few weeks, “barring a dramatic turnaround,” DeHaan said.

“It’s not impossible that if oil markets hold here, we could see a national average of $2.99 around Christmas, certainly the gift that every motorist is hoping for,” De Haan said in his weekly gas price blog.

“Drivers shouldn’t be in a rush to fill up as prices will come down nearly coast-to-coast into the heavily traveled Thanksgiving holiday,” he added.

DeHaan attributed the declines to the falling price of oil futures amid lingering concerns of an economic slowdown. Traders are likely expecting global oil supplies to increase because of continuing COVID-19 shutdowns in China.

The per-barrel price of U.S.-produced oil has plummeted from $87.90 a barrel on Nov. 14 to below $80 Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gasoline inventories in the U.S. increased by 2.2 million barrels last week, which is still about 5 percent lower than the five-year average, last week’s report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.

Contact Mick Akers at makers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2920. Follow @mickakers on Twitter.