U.S. travel growth expected to slow in 2013

U.S. travel will rise in 2012 by
36 million to 2.04 billion trips, which is a
1.8 percent increase over 2011, an all-time high. In 2013, travel is expected to grow at a slower pace than the last few years, at a rate of 1.1 percent, which results in an additional 23 million trips, according to the U.S. Travel Association’s 2013 travel forecast.

“Right now the economy is in a sluggish mode,” said David Huether, senior vice president of research and economics for the U.S. Travel Association.

Using the economy as a backdrop to better understand the factors that can hurt the travel industry, Huether on Thursday cited reasons why travel spending, although strong recently, probably will moderate in the future.

For one thing, he said, orders for durable goods rose 9.9 percent in September, but dropped 13.1 percent in August. And September’s boost was primarily because of a rebound in aircraft bookings, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

Huether also said business confidence is falling and consumer spending is growing at a faster clip than disposable income.

“I think that’s an unsustainable path,” Huether said.

Travel spending is expected to grow by 4.7 percent in 2012 to $852 billion, and 2013 spending growth is projected to slow a bit to 3.6 percent.

“The economy is likely to be stuck in a low gear ,” Huether said.

But, that doesn’t necessarily mean bad news.

Since 2009, 283,000 jobs have been added within the travel industry. The level of GDP is up 2.2 percent above the beginning of the recession, and exports are up 13 percent from the fourth quarter 2007. And, consumer confidence rose to its highest level in five years in October. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased in October to 72.2, up from 68.4 in September.

“There’s some positive fundamentals,” Huether said, “but there’s a significant amount of concern.”

However, in general, travel industry growth is still climbing at a “healthy,” albeit slower pace, said Huether.

The international share of travel spending is expected to increase 14.6 percent in 2012, and in 2013 international travelers will account for 15 percent of all travel spending in the United States. In 2014 the international share is expected to grow to 15.5 percent.

“International spending is becoming more and more important to the industry going forward,” Huether said.

Contact reporter Laura Carroll at
lcarroll@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4588.