Nevada not expected to join Electoral College dropouts

Although the state Assembly passed a bill last week supporting the plan, lawmakers and lobbyists predict the bill will either die in the Senate or narrowly pass.

Even if the Senate approves Assembly Bill 413, Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons will likely veto the plan.

Gibbons won’t say if he’ll veto the bill, but spokesman Daniel Burns said the governor prefers the current system of allowing electors to choose the president.

“On the surface, electing presidents by popular vote may look more fair, but the system we have now gives smaller states like Nevada a voice,” Burns said. “If we move to a popular vote system, all smaller states essentially won’t matter.”

Under the plan pushed by the National Popular Vote organization, presidential electors would be required to vote for the candidate with the most popular votes across the nation.

With the current electoral system, electors in 48 states cast their votes for the candidate who won the most votes in their state. Maine and Nebraska divvy up electoral votes based on the number of congressional districts each candidate wins.

The candidate with the most electoral votes nationally becomes president.

To take effect, the National Popular Vote plan must get approval in enough states to capture the 270 electoral votes needed to elect a president. Washington, Maryland, New Jersey, Illinois and Hawaii have passed the plan but have just 61 votes.

None of those states had a Republican governor, and all had legislatures controlled by Democrats when the proposal became law.

“I know the math,” said Barry Fadem, president of National Popular Vote. “It’s not going to be easy.”

That’s why he intends to visit Carson City on Thursday to lobby for approval of the measure.

The bill passed the Assembly 27-14 on April 21 on a party-line vote with all Democrats backing it. The bill is expected to die in the Senate or pass by an 11-10 vote.

A hearing on the bill is scheduled for May 7 in the Senate Operations and Elections Committee, where Democrats hold a 4-3 advantage.

Democrats John Lee of North Las Vegas and Bernice Mathews of Reno are considered toss-up votes. Neither will say now how they will vote, but if either goes against the plan, the bill will likely die.

If the bill goes to a vote by all senators, Sen. Bob Coffin, D-Las Vegas, said he will vote against it because small states like Nevada would have no clout in presidential elections determined by popular vote.

The same argument was raised by Republicans in the Assembly.

“If this bill passes, then there is no use for states like Nevada,” said Assemblyman John Carpenter, R-Elko. “New York, California, Texas and Florida will elect the president.”

Assembly Minority Leader Heidi Gansert, R-Reno, questioned whether candidates would bother visiting Nevada if the president was elected by popular vote.

Fadem’s argument for the bill is that the people of Nevada and every other state his organization has polled want to elect the president, not the electors.

A Gallup Poll in Nevada in January found 72 percent favored directly electing the president, Fadem said.

Sen. Barbara Cegavske, R-Las Vegas, questioned why National Popular Vote organizers don’t try to amend the U.S. Constitution, abolish the Electoral College and then let voters directly elect the president.

“What they are doing is circumventing the Constitution,” said Cegavske, who opposes the bill. “Change the Constitution.”

Fadem acknowledged the difficulty of changing the Constitution, noting the last serious attempt to amend the document was the Equal Rights Amendment of the 1970s. But he said the Constitution already allows states to decide how to award their electoral votes.

Delegates at the Constitutional Convention in 1787 favored the Electoral College system over a popular vote because they worried voters might not have sufficient knowledge about candidates and, as a result, would support a favored son from their state or region.

They believed the electors would be knowledgeable and informed citizens who would select the best candidate, regardless of political party, or so it was thought at the time.

The Electoral College made President George W. Bush the winner in 2000, even though he lost the popular vote to Al Gore. The same thing happened in 1824, 1876 and 1888.

In Nevada, electors are picked by political parties, and hardly anyone knows their names until weeks after the November election when they gather in the state Capitol and choose the president.

Electors typically include state politicians and longtime party operatives or donors who hardly qualify as John Q. Public.

To Fadem, the best reason for backing National Popular Vote came from a man at one of their focus groups.

” ‘Shouldn’t the person with the most votes win?’ ” he asked rhetorically. “Duh. That’s the American way.”

Contact reporter Ed Vogel at evogel @reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.