Who to watch at the 2011 Legislature

When Sandoval quit his job as a federal judge to run for governor, he almost single-handedly rescued state Republicans from irrelevancy by giving them a credible, telegenic messenger to carry the "no new taxes" banner. He also put his credibility on the line to deliver on a promise previous Gov. Jim Gibbons couldn’t: balance the state budget for four years without any tax increases. He already is under attack for including about $1 billion in gimmicks and one-shot measures in his $5.8 billion general fund budget for 2011-13. Democrats are lining up witnesses by the hundreds to testify about the human cost of cuts to education and human services. Sandoval’s senior staff includes friends from high school and childhood years in Reno and Fallon, Chief of Staff Heidi Gansert and senior adviser Dale Erquiaga.

LEGISLATURE

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas

Focused and intense, Horsford rose toward the pinnacle of power with the often-inept Gibbons as his greatest foil. But it’s a new era and Horsford has new challenges. Sandoval is a tougher foe than Gibbons, and Horsford suffered self-inflicted political wounds in the off-season, most coming from an ill-conceived plan to offer deep-pocket donors access to Senate Democrats in exchange for campaign contributions. Two Horsford-backed Democrats also lost in the Nov. 3 elections, leaving him with a thin 11-10 majority. Still, he is charging into 2011 leading hearings in which witnesses emphasize the human cost of Sandoval’s budget-cutting proposals for children, the disabled and mentally ill.

State Senate Minority Leader Mike McGinness, R-Fallon

It’s strange to see this soft-spoken manager of a rural radio station cast in the role of cold-blooded political opportunist. But last month that’s how writers of Reno’s annual "Sheep Dip" satirical play depicted McGinness, who still pulls the occasional engineer shift during high school basketball broadcasts. They presented him with a "shaft award" for his role in the ouster of longtime state Senate Republican leader Bill Raggio of Reno, and had Raggio present the trophy wearing a coat with a knife sticking out the back. Raggio, who had lost the confidence of his caucus, left his leadership post, allowing members to vote unanimously to put the unassuming McGinness in charge. Raggio later resigned altogether. Now the melodrama is over and McGinness has to lead. That means holding enough of the caucus together to back Sandoval’s spending limits.

Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, D-Las Vegas

Oceguera, who leads the Democrats in the lower house, has long been considered a rising figure in Nevada politics. The 2011 session is his time to shine. The North Las Vegas firefighter is known for his amiable public demeanor and by insiders as a good campaigner and fundraiser. He has not yet taken a clear stance on fellow Democrats’ calls for new taxes.

Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, R-Eureka

Goicoechea is possibly the least likely person to break into Nevada’s "core group," the legislative leaders who will make the big deals come budget time. A lifelong rancher from Eureka, he doesn’t have much of a political profile statewide and is virtually unknown in Las Vegas. Among conservatives, a natural constituency for a rural Republican, he has ruffled feathers by suggesting during a televised interview in August that a vote of the people to broaden sales taxes to include groceries was a potential route out of the state’s budget crisis. He survived the kerfuffle largely on his reputation as a straight-shooter with a firm command of the issues and promises to stick with Sandoval on the tax issue.

Assemblyman Tick Segerblom, D-Las Vegas

Segerblom is among the most liberal members of the Assembly and got a big boost in influence being appointed chairman of the Committee on Legislative Operations and Elections, which will handle redistricting.

State Sen. Sheila Leslie, D-Reno

Leslie is the only northern Democrat in the state Senate. One of Nevada’s most liberal politicians, she closely tracks issues of education, water, the environment and equal rights. As chairwoman of the Revenue Committee, she will have a strong voice if Democrats seek to rewrite the way the state generates taxes.

Assemblywoman Debbie Smith, D-Sparks, chairwoman, Ways and Means Committee

After Horsford, Smith was the most outspoken member of the Legislature during pre-session committee meetings to review Sandoval’s budget. A legislator since 2000, she chairs the K-12 and capital improvements subcommittees, putting her in a position to wield great influence over the biennial budget as well as education spending and reform, three of the hottest issues facing Nevada.

State Sen. John Lee, D-North Las Vegas, chairman, Government Affairs Committee

Before legislative Democrats start plucking Republicans to build a veto-proof budget majority, they need to make sure all their own party members are on board, starting with Lee. A conservative, Lee is considered to be among several state Democrats who might run for Congress and said he is leaning against supporting a tax increase to balance the budget.

State Sen. Ben Kieckhefer, R-Reno

Studious and alert, Kieckhefer is already getting noticed despite being a freshman. A former Associated Press reporter, spokesman for then-Gov. Jim Gibbons and for the state Department of Health and Human Services, he asked incisive, informed questions during pre-session budget hearings.

State Sen. Dean Rhoads, R-Tuscarora

Rhoads is a quiet elder statesman serving his final session in the state Senate. He rarely speaks out on issues that don’t directly affect his rural district. But he is the only remaining Senate Republican to have voted for tax increases in 2003 and 2009. The Democrats have listed him as a possible crossover vote for tax increases.

ISSUES

GAMING

Pete Ernaut and Billy Vassiliadis

Ernaut is a prominent lobbyist at R&R Partners in Reno and longtime friend and confidant to Sandoval. His clients have included the gaming — which is Nevada’s biggest industry — mining, utility and other influential industries. The Republican was chief of staff to former Gov. Kenny Guinn and one of Sandoval’s campaign advisers. He also served in the Assembly and is one of the leading GOP consultants in the state. The face of the Democratic side of R&R Partners in Las Vegas, Vassiliadis is best known for work on the company’s contract with the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. During the 2010 special session, working with the Nevada Resort Association, he accused lawmakers of short-sightedness when their frenetic search for money to solve a budget crisis led them to the gaming industry for the fourth time since 2003.

BUSINESS

Hugh Anderson, government affairs chairman, Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce

A volunteer for the chamber, Anderson’s day job is as a financial adviser for Merrill Lynch. He said chamber members are "very concerned" about Sandoval’s proposed cuts to education and social services. But the group remains "adamantly opposed" to tax increases.

MINING

Tim Crowley, president, Nevada Mining Association

Although mining is writ large in Nevada history and has a tax structure enshrined in the state constitution, the industry operates in places far flung from populous Las Vegas. The result: It’s an easy industry to vilify and a fat target for taxes, Crowley said. He is quick to point out that mining, along with gaming, is one of the few businesses in Nevada to pay an industry-specific tax. He also said that even though gold is selling high, gypsum mines are hurting. And mining for lithium and molybdenum will be critical for forging Nevada’s position as an alternative energy leader.

HIGHER EDUCATION

Dan Klaich, chancellor, Nevada System of Higher Education

Klaich has emerged as a passionate and articulate opponent of Sandoval’s plans to cut higher education spending in 2011-13 nearly 18 percent from 2009-11 levels. After a long day of testifying against proposed Sandoval cuts recently, one Reno wag tweeted Klaich that he looked positively "gubernatorial" in testimony that included support for new taxes to raise money for the system. The chancellor bolstered spirited advocacy for Nevada’s colleges and universities with a ream of statistics aimed at putting the cuts in human terms, such as more than 1,800 potential layoffs and the prospect of a 73 percent tuition increase. He also has lined up a team of pro bono lobbyists led by former Democratic Gov. Richard Bryan.

PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Gary Peck, executive director, Nevada State Education Association

Peck’s group represents more than 25,000 teachers, support staff, librarians and school nurses and has been among the most influential labor associations at past Legislatures. Although Peck is new to the association, he is no stranger to Nevada politics, having previously led the American Civil Liberties Union of Nevada. Now he is advocating for more education funding, even if it means higher taxes. He will have at his disposal the talents of longtime education lobbyist Lynn Warne, Democratic consultant Dan Hart and more than two dozen people with full- and part-time duties in Carson City.

TAX WATCHDOG

Carole Villardo, president, Nevada Taxpayers Association

Villardo has attended every legislative session since 1973 and has an encyclopedic knowledge of Nevada tax facts and history. Although she has not yet taken a stance on Sandoval’s budget, she has a record of opposing taxes that are unreasonable or inefficient.

LIBERAL ADVOCACY

Bob Fulkerson, Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada (PLAN)

In recent years, Fulkerson’s organizing efforts, along with legislative help from PLAN lobbyist Jan Gilbert, have paid off with alliances with progressive lawmakers and a strong north-south political machine that turns out protesters who call for mining, gaming and big corporations to spend more money on taxes for schools and social services

CONSERVATIVE ADVOCACY

Geoffrey Lawrence, policy analyst, Nevada Policy Research Institute (NPRI)

Newer to the scene than counterparts at liberal PLAN, NPRI doesn’t have PLAN’s lobbying chops nor its yen for loud demonstrations; but the conservative Las Vegas-based think tank is getting more attention in Carson City these days. With Lawrence as policy analyst, NPRI focuses largely on taxes and education.

Las Vegas Review-Journal