EDITORIAL: GOP road gets bumpy with Trump convictions

On Thursday, a New York jury found Mr. Trump guilty of 34 felonies in a lurid case involving allegations that he falsified business records to cover up a payment to a porn star intended to keep her quiet about a sexual liaison. It is the first time in the nation’s history that a former president has been convicted of a criminal offense. (Exhale, Bill Clinton.) The jurors sat through the testimony, pondered the evidence and rendered their judgment. That’s how the system works.

Trump supporters should save their wrath for the prosecutor who brought this creative case in the first place. Gloating Trump haters should ask themselves whether New York City would have spent time and treasure pursuing these 9-year-old charges against any other human being on the planet. Or whether prosecutors would have moved forward against Mr. Trump was he not running for the Oval Office. The answers are obvious.

What’s next is anybody’s guess. Mr. Trump will appeal — and likely has a reasonable chance of prevailing, given the way this prosecution was constructed and the case unfolded. Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York, but District Attorney Alvin Bragg argued that the offenses occurred as part of a conspiracy to influence the 2016 presidential election. Voila! The misdemeanors became felonies even though Mr. Trump was never charged with any election-related offenses. If that makes sense, congratulations, you’re a law school graduate.

The felony charges carry no mandatory sentence. Will the audacious Mr. Bragg push his luck and demand prison time? Would the judge agree to jail a 77-year-old, first-time offender with no criminal record? How far are they willing to go for a victimless offense beefed up by an election statute that, observers say, has never before been enforced? Sentencing is set for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention.

Mr. Trump has so far retained his support despite the barrage of legal boulders that Democratic prosecutors have rolled his way. His loyal base remains strong. But the former president — along with Republican Senate and congressional candidates — would surely rather be campaigning without having to address the political realities of last week’s verdict. In a close election involving a handful of swing states, Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose any potential support. Previous surveys have shown that a small number of independent or undecided voters might be less likely to back the GOP standard-bearer if he were found guilty of any crimes.

Even if Mr. Trump were to have his convictions overturned on appeal, that might come too late to mitigate the potential damage, which may reach down the ballot once Democrats begin pounding the airwaves with freshly minted attack ads. Expect to hear the word “felon” ad nauseam between now and November. Every Republican candidate — from school board to Congress — had best prep for a constant stream of “gotcha” inquiries.

The convictions will make an already vicious and contentious election even more so, further riling activists and creating deeper fissures. Talk on the right of exacting “revenge” is unhelpful and dangerous. Ultimately, it will be up to the American people to decide in November whether the legal offensive against Mr. Trump represents the legitimate pursuit of justice or an unprecedented partisan crusade to cripple an opposition candidate.