VICTOR JOECKS: Why Biden is thrilled Trump won Iowa

On Monday, Trump cruised to victory in the first 2024 Republican presidential contest. He earned 51 percent of the vote. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second at 21.2 percent, finishing a couple points ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

The most obvious takeaway is that Trump has all but clinched the nomination. DeSantis invested heavily in Iowa. He earned high-profile endorsements, including Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats. Yours truly thought Republican voters would break late and carry DeSantis to victory. Even though he overperformed his polling by 5.5 points, it didn’t happen.

Haley and her team spent the weeks predicting a second-place finish. She limped into third, even with Democrats and independents bolstering her. Democrat crossover voters should help her in New Hampshire. But Haley’s path to the nomination remains nonexistent. You can’t win the Republican primary by consolidating 25 percent of the vote. Her chances of becoming Trump’s VP selection, however, still looks promising.

Now, dig a little deeper. Biden has been explicit about his desire to face Trump. At a campaign event last month, he said, “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running.”

Trump solves Biden’s biggest political problem, which is that Biden is a terrible president. From inflation to Afghanistan to an onslaught of illegal immigrants, he has been a disaster. Voters know it. His job approval rating is under 40 percent and 17.6 percentage points underwater in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Biden can’t get people excited to vote for him, but he does think they’ll be motivated to vote against Trump. It worked in 2020. Since Trump became the face of the Republican Party in 2016, Republicans underperformed in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Note to Republican voters: That’s a pattern.

There’s a real likelihood that Trump will be a convicted felon and possibly in jail before Election Day. The election subversion case in Washington, D.C., is especially concerning, even though the case is a farce. A jury there is likely to convict Trump simply because the area is so heavily Democrat.

While the polling looks promising for Trump right now, it shows he would lose a major chunk of support if he is convicted. At this point, his best hope is to delay the trials until after the election. Plus, the polling will shift as the media refocuses its attacks from DeSantis to Trump.

Democrat-run states changed the voting rules in 2020. Ballot harvesting is legal in many states, including Nevada. Trump is quick to point out the flaws in these changes, and many of his critiques are correct. But he has yet to articulate a plan to adjust to this reality.

Biden is such a disaster that a Trump victory remains a possibility. But Biden would have had a much harder time beating DeSantis or Haley. That’s why the biggest winner coming out of Iowa is Biden.

Victor Joecks’ column appears in the Opinion section each Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Listen to him discuss his columns each Monday at 7 a.m. with Kevin Wall on AM 670 KMZQ Right Talk. Contact him at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on X.