VICTOR JOECKS: Why GOP presidential candidates are avoiding Nevada

On Saturday, DeSantis spoke at the Basque Fry, an annual event in Northern Nevada. More than 2,500 people attended. That’s a massive crowd, especially given that people had to buy tickets.

What’s remarkable is that DeSantis is the only major presidential candidate to visit Nevada this cycle. It’s his second time here, too. In March, he held a rally in Las Vegas as part of his book tour.

In theory, Nevada should be a state worth wooing. On the Republican side, it will vote third among states, after Iowa and New Hampshire. Those two states can’t keep the candidates away. South Carolina, which is scheduled to go fourth, has already had numerous events with presidential candidates.

Former President Donald Trump, the front-runner, hasn’t been here either. That’s not surprising, however. He hasn’t done much campaigning anywhere unless you count his Truth Social ramblings.

By this time in 2015, Nevada had received visits from more than half a dozen Republican candidates, with some coming before they announced. This included Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

Even Jeb Bush mustered up the energy to do a Nevada event.

Like this year, there were a large number of plausible Republican candidates in 2015. But that race was much more wide open. In mid-June 2015, Bush led the field in the polling average with less than 13 percent. There were five other candidates polling at 8 percent or better. Trump had just announced his candidacy. His polling would take off midsummer on his way to winning the nomination.

Looking back, it’s easy to think that Trump’s victory was inevitable. But it didn’t feel that way at the time. This year, Trump is the two-time Republican nominee and has a significant polling lead. It’ll be an upset if he doesn’t win. DeSantis is the only other candidate who consistently breaks double digits.

That means candidates such as Nikki Haley or Mike Pence need a strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire. Candidates who don’t do well in either state will probably drop out before Nevada announces its results.

Another reason for the lack of visits is that Trump did especially well in Nevada in 2016. He won nearly 46 percent of the vote. That was one of his highest percentages in any state while the race was competitive. Trump does especially well among voters without a college degree, and Nevada has a larger share than most states.

A perceived pro-Trump bias among the state GOP doesn’t help. It’s currently suing the state to allow Nevada Republicans to hold a caucus instead of a primary. Some may think that would benefit Trump, who has the most passionate base of support. But it could help the more-organized DeSantis campaign.

There is some regional bias here, too. Nevada is farther away than South Carolina and more removed from the D.C. and New York media hubs.

Regardless of the reason, this vacuum presents an opportunity that only DeSantis appears ready to fill. It’s much easier to campaign against people who don’t show up.

Victor Joecks’ column appears in the Opinion section each Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Contact him at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on Twitter.