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Here’s your breakdown of Saturday’s Final Four
NO. 1 GONZAGA (36-1) vs. NO. 7 SOUTH CAROLINA (26-10)
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
When: 3:09 p.m.
TV/Radio: KLAS-8; KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM).
Series: First meeting.
Final Four history: Gonzaga and South Carolina are both making their first trip to the national semifinals.
How they got here: As the top seed out of the West Region, Gonzaga eliminated South Dakota State, Northwestern, West Virginia and Xavier, with the closest call a 61-58 victory against the Mountaineers in the Sweet 16. South Carolina is a living, breathing, kicking Cinderella in March. Champions of the East Region, it beat Marquette before taking out higher seeds in No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Baylor and No. 4 Florida.
Backcourt: Here’s the thing — Gonzaga has a bunch of guys who can make 3-pointers (its four primary perimeter players all have at least 40 this season), and South Carolina is really good defending from deep, limiting opponents to the eighth-lowest percentage nationally. Look for the Gamecocks to be physical in fighting over screens and not going under them to allow uncontested jumpers. Sindarius Thornwell (21.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg) is the SEC Player of the Year, and no one arrived in Arizona playing at a higher level than the South Carolina senior. Gonzaga goes as does the play of junior point guard Nigel Williams-Goss, the Findlay Prep product whose leadership has been stellar all season. The key could come from supporting players, be it Josh Perkins and Jordan Matthews making 3s for the Zags or Duane Notice and PJ Dozier limiting such chances for the Gamecocks. Edge: South Carolina.
Frontcourt: You can assume much of the point spread that favors Gonzaga by 6½ trends in the direction of the trees, given the presence of 7-footers Prezmek Karnowski and Bishop Gorman alumnus Zach Collins. You figure South Carolina will have few answers to slow the Zags inside and would need terrific efforts from the starting frontcourt of Maik Kotsar and Chris Silva to do so. There is also Johnathan Williams, who played well enough for Gonzaga in San Jose last week to be named the West Region’s Most Outstanding Player. If the Zags control tempo and force South Carolina to play big, it won’t be good news for the Gamecocks. Edge: Gonzaga.
Possible unsung hero: Rakym Felder, South Carolina. He is a 5-10 freshman point guard who comes off the bench and shoots with range. It will take all of South Carolina’s defensive skill to slow the Zags’ backcourt, and Felder’s energy could prove big when chasing shooters.
Did you know?: This is the third SEC team the Zags have played this season. Gonzaga beat Florida (77-72) and Tennessee (86-76).
Key stat: Adjustments? In four tournament wins, South Carolina has outscored opponents 194-142 in the second half.
Quote to note: “We’re fine. Guys from Northwestern said we should have been nervous. Guys from West Virginia said we should have been nervous. Guys from Xavier said we should have been nervous. We’re not nervous. We’re just going out there and we’re going out to play.” — Gonzaga senior guard Jordan Mathews.
Bottom line: Lost in all the talk about South Carolina’s defense — and it is really good — is the fact Gonzaga offers the country’s top-rated defensive efficiency side. This has the feel of Gonzaga-West Virginia in the Sweet 16, a game destined to be close but one we can’t see the Zags losing. In the end, the edge for Gonzaga up front seems too much.
Prediction: Gonzaga 70, South Carolina 66.
NO. 1 NORTH CAROLINA (31-7) vs. NO. 3 OREGON (33-5)
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
When: Approximately 5:45 p.m.
TV/Radio: KLAS-8; KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM).
Series: North Carolina leads 4-0.
Final Four history: North Carolina is making its 20th appearance, far more times than the other three teams combined; Oregon is making its first trip since winning the 1939 national championship.
How they got here: A top seed, North Carolina emerged as South Region champions by defeating Texas Southern, Arkansas, Butler and Kentucky. Oregon carried the Pac-12 banner out of the Midwest Region with wins against Iona, Rhode Island, Michigan and top-seeded Kansas.
Backcourt: Oregon needs Tyler Dorsey to continue tearing up March. The team’s top scorer in the Madness — the sophomore guard has gone for 20-plus in seven straight games dating to the conference tournament at T-Mobile Arena — is aided by the presence of Findlay Prep product Dillon Brooks, a junior who averages 16.3 points and 3.1 rebounds. North Carolina bothered Kentucky stars De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk for most of an Elite Eight win, but it needs junior guard Joel Berry II to overcome what has been nagging injuries and inconsistent shooting to counter Oregon’s strength. North Carolina is all about playing fast, hoping its first look in transition leads to baskets seconds after gaining possession. Oregon is all about controlling a more measured tempo. Whichever side dictates pace should advance to Monday’s final. Edge: Oregon.
Frontcourt: This is when Oregon could use injured senior forward Chris Boucher. North Carolina can destroy teams on the glass, scoring on 42 percent of its offensive rebounds. On the other side, Oregon has been dead-flat average in defensive rebounding, which means the Ducks could be in a world of hurt if they don’t get bodies on a bunch of athletic Tar Heels. There are few tougher matchups in college than North Carolina junior forward Justin Jackson, the ACC Player of the Year who as a 6-8 forward averages 18.2 points and 4.7 rebounds while shooting 38 percent on 3s. Jordan Bell played terrific (11 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks) in an Elite Eight win against Kansas, and the Oregon junior forward needs a similar effort against a bigger North Carolina starting lineup. Edge: North Carolina.
Possible unsung hero: Isaiah Hicks. It’s critical the 6-9 senior forward for North Carolina stays out of foul trouble, given he probably will be handed the responsibility of defending Brooks. If the Ducks go small and play Brooks at power forward, Hicks’ ability to limit the Oregon star could go a long way in advancing the Tar Heels.
Did you know?: Bell has five straight NCAA games of 12-plus rebounds. The last player to do so was Hakeem Olajuwon in 1985.
Key stat: North Carolina has the highest offensive efficiency rating (121.4) of all Final Four teams. It’s the fourth highest since such ratings began being charted for points-per-possession in 2001-02.
Quote to note: “Jordan Bell is a maniac down there. He never stops. He goes for every single loose ball. He tries to block every shot. Great team. It will be a hard task to slow them down.” — North Carolina star Justin Jackson.
Bottom line: Which side is going to force the other to play more its style? Figure that out, and you figure out the winner. North Carolina just wants to beast others on the boards, while Oregon would prefer to play small and force you to match bigger bodies on quicker ones. So why can’t we get past that part about all those second-chance points for the Tar Heels?
Prediction: North Carolina 79, Oregon 73.