AFC team-by-team betting breakdown: Raiders a contender or pretender?

Dumond analyzes all 16 AFC teams, designating each squad as a contender or pretender. A contender is expected to vie for a playoff spot, and a pretender is not. (Odds to win Super Bowl at Westgate SuperBook in parentheses):

AFC West

— Denver Broncos (300-1): Coach Sean Payton went 8-9 in his first season in Denver despite finishing -56 in point differential and benching quarterback Russell Wilson late in the season. Rookie Bo Nix will be the Broncos’ 14th starting quarterback since Hall of Famer Peyton Manning retired after helping Denver win the Super Bowl in 2015. The Broncos are projected to suffer their eighth straight losing season and are underdogs in 15 games. Pretender.

— Kansas City Chiefs (+450): The Chiefs’ dynasty is like a runaway freight train that none of the other 31 NFL teams can stop: eight straight AFC West titles, four AFC crowns in the past five years and three Super Bowl championships, including back-to-back Lombardi Trophies. While most of the credit rightfully goes to two-time NFL MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs’ defense, led by pass rushers Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, can’t be overlooked. Will they become the first NFL team to three-peat as Super Bowl champions? Don’t bet against them. Super Bowl contender.

— Los Angeles Chargers (60-1): After three seasons and too many coaching blunders to count, coach Brandon Staley was finally fired. In steps Jim Harbaugh, who left Michigan after guiding the Wolverines to the national title. The Chargers lost eight games by four points or less last season. With Harbaugh making better decisions, they should be able to turn some of those losses into wins. The Chargers parted ways with running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But they are set at quarterback with Justin Herbert and still have good weapons with running back Gus Edwards and wideout Joshua Palmer. On defense, the Chargers have a fearsome pass rush led by Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Contender.

— Raiders (100-1): You have to give the Raiders’ brass their props. When they realized they made mistakes with coach Josh McDaniels and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, they promptly 86ed both of them. Antonio Pierce stepped in as interim coach and led the Raiders to a 5-4 record down the stretch. He was rewarded for his leadership by being named Raiders coach. Gardner Minshew won the preseason quarterback competition with Aidan O’Connell, but Minshew won’t be able to hand the ball to running back Josh Jacobs, who has taken his talents to Green Bay. His production will be missed. The Raiders still have star receiver Davante Adams, and rookie tight end Brock Bowers is expected to make an immediate impact. Maxx Crosby returns to lead the defense with new addition Christian Wilkins at defensive tackle. The Silver and Black have some good pieces in place, but not at the most important position. Minshew has a 15-22 career record as a starter. Pretender.

AFC East

— Buffalo Bills (20-1): For the third time in four years, the Bills’ Super Bowl hopes were dashed in the playoffs by the Chiefs. Buffalo has won four straight AFC East titles and earned five consecutive playoff berths, but that success has not translated to the postseason. Now the question is whether Buffalo’s Super Bowl window has closed. The Bills have never looked more vulnerable after losing star wideout Stefon Diggs, and they face stiff competition in the division from the Dolphins and Jets. The good news is that quarterback Josh Allen is still in his prime and coach Sean McDermott has a track record of success. Super Bowl contender.

— Miami Dolphins (25-1): Y2K was 24 years ago, and that was the last time the Dolphins won a playoff game. The good news for Miami fans is that coach Mike McDaniel has the Dolphins moving in the right direction, posting back-to-back winning seasons and playoff appearances. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a career year in which he led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) and started all 17 games for the first time in his career. Miami will compete for the AFC East crown and is a good bet to make the playoffs and end its postseason win drought. Contender.

— New England Patriots (300-1): The Hoodie has left the building. Coach Bill Belichick has taken the last vestiges of the Patriots’ dynasty with him after 24 years that produced 17 AFC East crowns, nine Super Bowl appearances and six Super Bowl championships. The Patriots went 4-13 in Belichick’s forgettable final season. In steps rookie coach Jerod Mayo and a new quarterback in either veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye. The reset button has been pushed in New England, and wins will be at a premium in this rebuilding year. The Patriots are projected as underdogs in all 17 games. Pretender.

— New York Jets (30-1): Four plays. That’s how long it took for the Jets’ 2023 season to implode when quarterback Aaron Rodgers went down with a season-ending Achilles injury in their opener against the Bills, leaving long-suffering New York fans to wonder if the team is cursed. The Jets haven’t had a winning season since 2015 and haven’t made the playoffs in 13 years, the longest drought in the NFL. New York has a playoff-caliber defense. Rodgers just needs to stay upright behind a revamped offensive line. Contender.

AFC North

— Baltimore Ravens (10-1): Inexcusable. That word best describes Baltimore’s head-scratching offensive play-calling in last season’s home loss to the Chiefs in the AFC championship game. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing but inexplicably abandoned the run in a 17-10 defeat in which they finished with only 16 rushes and 37 passes. That’s the main reason the Ravens watched the Super Bowl at home, as their No. 1-ranked scoring defense shut out the Chiefs in the second half. Reigning NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson will have more help in the backfield with the addition of running back Derrick Henry, and the Ravens return nine of 11 starters on defense. Super Bowl contender.

— Cincinnati Bengals (14-1): The Bengals went 9-8 last season, but all that got them was a last-place finish in the ultracompetitive AFC North. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow was limited by injuries to only 10 games for the second time in his four-year career. If Burrow can stay healthy, the Bengals are prime candidates to go from worst to first in their division. The explosive receiver combo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is still one of the best in the league. On defense, defensive end Trey Hendrickson is coming off his best season, finishing second in the league in sacks with 17½. Super Bowl contender.

— Cleveland Browns (40-1): Thirty-six and counting. That’s the number of starting quarterbacks the Browns have had since the 2000 season. The Browns used five starting quarterbacks last season alone. Deshaun Watson started only six games for the second straight year. Despite the quarterback dysfunction and loss of running back Nick Chubb, Cleveland still won 11 games and earned a wild-card playoff berth last season behind NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski, NFL Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco and NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. The Browns have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. If Watson can regain his past form, Cleveland can advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Super Bowl contender.

— Pittsburgh Steelers (50-1): Consistency. That’s the word that best describes coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure in the Steel City, where he has guided the Steelers for 17 straight years without a losing season. With less-than-stellar quarterback play last season, Pittsburgh still managed to win 10 games and secure a wild-card berth. The No. 6-ranked scoring defense, led by NFL sack leader T.J. Watt (19), kept the Steelers in many of their games. The biggest change this season will be at quarterback, where Kenny Pickett was shown the door and Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are battling to see who will be QB1. Oddsmakers are a bit skeptical that Tomlin can extend his streak of .500 or better seasons, as the Steelers’ win total is 8. We agree. All good things come to an end. Pretender.

AFC South

— Houston Texans (14-1): The Texans stunned everyone last season by improving from 3-13-1 to 10-7, winning the AFC South and blowing out the Browns in their wild-card game. Rookies spearheaded the dramatic turnaround, led by first-year coach DeMeco Ryans, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year quarterback C.J. Stroud and Defensive Rookie of the Year defensive end Will Anderson. Some regression is expected, but the Texans will once again contend for the AFC South crown. Contender.

— Indianapolis Colts (100-1): Former UNLV quarterback Shane Steichen did yeoman’s work guiding the Colts to a 9-8 record in his rookie year as coach after losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to a season-ending shoulder injury after only four games. Richardson is healthy and has good weapons in running back Jonathan Taylor and wideout Michael Pittman Jr. Rookie defensive end Laiatu Latu should make an immediate impact on a defense that gave up an AFC-worst 415 points last season. Contender.

— Jacksonville Jaguars (60-1): Quarterback Trevor Lawrence signed a $275 million, five-year contract extension, tying him with Joe Burrow and Jordan Love as the NFL’s highest-paid player. Not bad for a career record of 20-30 as a starter and one playoff win. The Jaguars are eager to bounce back from their 1-5 collapse last season that flushed their 8-3 start down the drain and cost them a playoff berth. Jacksonville still has posted back-to-back winning seasons under Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson, and the AFC South is up for grabs. Contender.

— Tennessee Titans (100-1): The Titans parted ways with coach Mike Vrabel, running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill after a disappointing 6-11 season. Their replacements are rookie coach Brian Callahan, former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard and second-year quarterback Will Levis. Tennessee is in complete rebuild mode and favored in only one game this season. Pretender.