AL East betting preview capsules
This is the second in a series of MLB divisional previews from a betting perspective.
The American League East long has been considered the toughest division in baseball.
The Yankees and Red Sox have combined to win nine of the past 24 World Series, and the division also has claimed 21 of the 33 AL wild cards since the playoff spot was introduced in 1995.
Boston is in a rare rebuilding year after trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. But New York is primed to make a run at World Series title No. 28 after adding ace Gerrit Cole to a loaded squad coming off back-to-back 100-win seasons.
Los Angeles is the +350 favorite at the Westgate to win the World Series, and the Yankees are the 4-1 second choice.
“On paper, the Yankees and Dodgers clearly look like the two best teams,” Westgate sportsbook manager Randy Blum said. “But in a shortened (60-game) season, anything can happen.”
Well, almost anything. The lowly Orioles certainly won’t dethrone defending AL East champion New York, and the young Blue Jays probably won’t, either. But Blum and handicapper Micah Roberts expect the Rays, who won last year’s AL wild-card game, to contend.
Here are team-by-team breakdowns, listed in order of the teams’ odds to win the division at the Westgate:
New York Yankees
Futures odds: 4-1 to win World Series, +175 to win AL, -250 to win division
Season win total: 37
Last season: 103-59 (first in division, lost 4-2 to Houston in ALCS)
Outlook: The Yankees were one of the biggest beneficiaries of baseball suspending play because of the coronavirus. Pitcher James Paxton and MVP candidates Aaron Judge (12-1) and Giancarlo Stanton (18-1) would have missed opening day in March with injuries but are now ready to go.
Cole, the 2-1 favorite to win the AL Cy Young, anchors a starting rotation that lost Luis Severino (Tommy John surgery) but still features Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. Closer Aroldis Chapman leads arguably baseball’s best bullpen.
D.J. LeMahieu (.327, 26 home runs, 102 RBIs) will bat leadoff, and Gleyber Torres — the 8-1 second choice, behind Mike Trout (+150), to win the AL MVP — will hit third.
“Torres is the next superstar in baseball,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “The Yankees are the best team in the AL, but the big keys for them will be the health of Stanton and Judge.”
Stanton played in 18 games last season, and Judge has missed 110 games the past two years.
Despite its abundant talent, New York still might be hard-pressed to top its season win total because of a tough schedule. The Yankees will play 30 games against Tampa Bay and the solid National League East, which features the Braves, Nationals, Mets and Phillies.
Tampa Bay Rays
Futures odds: 16-1 to win World Series, 7-1 to win AL, 3-1 to win division
Season win total: 34
Last season: 96-66 (second in division, lost 3-2 to Houston in ALDS)
Outlook: The resilient, small-market Rays are coming off back-to-back 90-win seasons and feature three Cy Young candidates in Tyler Glasnow (10-1), 2018 winner Blake Snell (12-1) and Charlie Morton (25-1).
“I like the Rays to contend for the division title,” said Roberts (Sportsline.com), a former Las Vegas sportsbook director. “I’m certainly not laying 250 (with the Yankees). If I had to pick one in the East, it would be the Rays.”
Blum praised Tampa Bay for popularizing the use of “openers,” a strategy in which a reliever starts the game, and expects it to come up with other innovations in this shortened season to remain a contender.
“The Rays are a team that you can’t overlook in a situation like this,” Blum said. “Who knows what they’ll do. Everything they seem to do works.”
Boston Red Sox
Futures odds: 40-1 to win World Series, 20-1 to win AL, 10-1 to win division
Season win total: 30
Last season: 84-78 (third in division)
Outlook: Two years removed from a World Series title, the Red Sox are projected to be a .500 team. Besides dealing Betts, the 2018 AL MVP, and starting pitcher David Price to the Dodgers in a salary dump, Boston also lost ace Chris Sale for the season to Tommy John surgery.
Eduardo Rodriguez, the team’s projected ace, has tested positive for the coronavirus. He’s followed in the rotation by Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Red Sox. They still have capable hitters in Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi.
“I don’t want to count them out,” Blum said. “Devers is a young stud, and they’ve still got some pieces. But Eduardo Rodriguez as the No. 1 starter is not exactly what they had in mind.”
Toronto Blue Jays
Futures odds: 100-1 to win World Series, 50-1 to win AL, 30-1 to win division
Season win total: 28
Last season: 67-95 (fourth in division)
Outlook: Toronto should be a fun team to watch, with promising second-generation players Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Calvin Biggio.
But their pitching is suspect with a projected starting rotation of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thornton.
“That says .500 all over it,” Roberts said. “I just love their young hitters, but they don’t have much pitching. So maybe look at some overs with them.”
Baltimore Orioles
Futures odds: 300-1 to win World Series, 150-1 to win AL, 100-1 to win division
Season win total: 21
Last season: 54-108 (fifth in division)
Outlook: Four years removed from earning a wild-card berth, the Orioles are coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, and this team might be its worst one yet.
“This is one of the worst baseball teams I’ve seen in years,” Roberts said. “And I always give the benefit of a doubt.”
Renato Nunez (.244, 31, 90) is Baltimore’s top returning hitter after it probably lost Trey Mancini (.291, 35, 97) for the season because of colon cancer.
John Means and Alex Cobb will anchor the pitching staff.
“Alex Cobb, maybe every five days you can bet him,” Roberts said.
Best bets
(Based on Review-Journal analysis, informed by opinions from bookmakers and handicappers)
Futures: Rays to win division (+340 at William Hill)
Win total: Orioles under 21
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.