Best bets for UFC Fight Night 189 in Las Vegas

Santiago Ponzinibbio had his seven-match UFC winning streak snapped in January, when he was knocked out in the first round by Li Jingliang in his first loss in six years.

MMA handicapper Lou Finocchiaro likes Ponzinibbio to bounce back on Saturday in UFC Fight Night 189 at the Apex.

Ponzinibbio (28-4-0) is an even-money favorite at Circa Sports over Miguel Baeza (10-0-0) in a welterweight fight on the main card.

“This is a critical crossroads fight for him. With a loss here, he falls out of the top 10 contenders in a division that he owned for seven or eight straight fights,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “Coming off his loss, Ponzinibbio is either going to crack or fight his best fight because he knows his career is on the line.

“Even though Baeza is 10-0, he hasn’t fought the same level of competition and doesn’t have the experience of Ponzinibbio. Baeza is the younger, faster fighter, but Ponzinibbio’s desperation is going to make the difference here.”

Finocchiaro also likes the fight to go the distance, which pays +145 at the Circa sportsbook.

“I think because of Baeza’s youth and Ponzinibbio’s durability and toughness, this fight goes to a decision,” he said.

Here are Finocchiaro’s other best bets:

Dolidze, -140

In the middleweight fight before the co-main event and main event, Finocchiaro is taking his only favorite on the card in Roman Dolidze (-140) over Laureano Staropoli.

“Staropoli is moving up in weight to get to 185. He used to fight at 170, where he had a hard time making weight, and is going to be a little undersized at 185,” he said. “Dolidze is moving down from 205 to fight at 185 and when they stand next to each other in the octagon, the size difference will be substantially in Dolidze’s favor.

“Dolidze has a substantial reach difference as well and is the more well-rounded fighter. He opened at -175 and now we can get him at -140. That’s our play.”

Puelles, +175

On the first fight on the card, Finocchiaro is backing Claudio Puelles (+175) over Jordan Leavitt in a lightweight bout.

“Leavitt has been the more active fighter, but Puelles is up to the task,” he said. “They are two lefthanders, which makes for a very odd fight. To me, that means the ‘dog has more of a chance.

“Puelles is the taller man and the larger man. I like his gym, I like his size and I love his price.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.