Betting favorite gets bump on eve of U.S. presidential election
Former President Donald Trump withstood a weekend surge by Vice President Kamala Harris and remains the betting favorite to win the presidency on the eve of the election.
Trump plummeted from a -210 favorite last week at BetOnline to -125 on Saturday. He shot back up to a -159 favorite Monday over Harris, the +138 underdog.
The current odds mean bettors must wager $159 to win $100 on Trump to be elected president and $100 to win $138 on Harris to win the election.
BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that isn’t regulated in the U.S., reported its biggest election bet yet of $128,700 on Trump at -130 before bumping up his price.
“Trump train was sputtering a couple days ago, but picking up steam again,” BetOnline brand manager Dave Mason posted on X (@DaveMasonBOL).
Trump also climbed from -125 to -147 at London-based Betfair Exchange.
“While the weekend saw a gamble on Kamala Harris, the opposite has been true of the last 24 hours,” Betfair said in a post on its website Monday morning. “Trump touched (-125) after favorable polling for the Democrats but has since been backed in to a current (-147).”
Trump’s chances also improved Monday at electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, Polymarket.com and Kalshi.com.
Trump’s chances dropped to 51.5 percent (-106) on Sunday, but they increased to 55.8 percent Monday night (-126). On the flip side, Harris saw her chances drop from 48.0 (+108) on Sunday to 43.7 (+128) on Monday night.
The favorite flipped again in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. After Harris flipped from a +125 underdog to a -120 favorite over the weekend at BetOnline to win the electoral college vote in the state, Trump regained the role of -145 favorite to win Pennsylvania.
Trump remains the favorite to win Nevada, but his odds have dipped from -155 to -135.
According to Oddschecker.com, which aggregates odds and takes bets from 25 of the United Kingdom’s biggest bookmakers, the betting is closer at this stage than before any U.S. election in two decades.
Oddschecker also noted that in the past 13 presidential elections, only once has the betting underdog on election day gone on to become president (Trump in 2016).
The site reported that the Betfair Exchange has had more than 170 million pounds, or $220 million, traded on the U.S. election winner market. That makes it the second-most wagered political event in history behind the 2020 U.S. election, which had 2 billion pounds, or $2.6 billion, traded on the market.
Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.