Books lose on 2019 baseball season win totals
Bettors who wagered on the Mets to go over their 2019 season win total (85½) had to sweat it out into extra innings of their 162nd game.
But they were rewarded in dramatic fashion Sunday when Dominic Smith hit a walk-off three-run homer in the 11th inning to lift New York to a 7-6 win over the Atlanta Braves as the Mets finished 86-76.
It was that type of fortunate 2019 season for most baseball win total bettors as they dealt Las Vegas sportsbooks a loss on the popular props.
“We got beat up on those pretty bad,” The Mirage sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said. “The good teams were really good and the bad teams were really bad. The good teams they bet over went over and the bad teams they bet under went under.”
The four lowest win totals went under and four of the five highest win totals went over.
Yankees Over
The Westgate’s largest loss was on the New York Yankees, who won 103 games to fly over the highest win total in the majors (97).
“The Yankees Over was definitely a very bad one for us,” Westgate sportsbook manager Randy Blum said. “There’s really nothing you can do. You’re going to get Yankees Over money every year.”
The Astros (96½, 107-55) and Dodgers (92½, 106-56) also soared over their numbers. The Indians (91, 93-69) topped their total as well, though they missed the playoffs.
The Red Sox (93½, 84-78) and Cubs (87½, 84-78) are popular public teams that both went under. But bettors actually loaded up on Chicago to go under this season, in part, because Baseball Prospectus’ popular PECOTA computer system forecast the Cubs to finish with 79 wins.
“People saw that on TV and were betting the under,” Blum said.
Orioles Under
The books also lost big on the Orioles Under. After Baltimore finished 47-115 in 2018, bettors pounded the Orioles Under this season. The total opened at 59½ and was bet down to 57½. Baltimore finished 54-108.
“It was all under money on Baltimore,” Blum said.
As awful as the Orioles were, they weren’t the worst team in baseball this year. That distinction belongs to the Detroit Tigers, who went 47-114 to finish 21 wins below their total (68).
“Everyone wanted to talk about how bad the Orioles were, but the Tigers were a much worse team this year,” Blum said.
The Miami Marlins (63½, 57-105) and Kansas City Royals (69, 59-103) also easily cashed under tickets.
The biggest winner for the Westgate was the Angels (82, 72-90), who finished 10 games below their win total.
“We didn’t like them at all and took a position where we’d need the under,” Blum said. “Mike Trout is the greatest player in the game, but it’s the same old story every year with them and their pitching.”
The Westgate also positioned itself to win on the Mariners Under (73½, 68-94). But it lost on the White Sox (74, 72-89) and Blue Jays (74, 67-95) after inducing under money on both young teams.
“We started the White Sox in the upper 70s because we thought they were going to get (Manny) Machado,” Blum said. “We’re still believers in the White Sox’s young talent but unfortunately it didn’t work out.
“We liked the Blue Jays in the preseason. We knew they had a lot of young talent, but unfortunately they went way under.”
The Padres (78½, 70-92) went under after adding Machado. The Phillies (89, 81-81) went under after signing Las Vegas resident Bryce Harper.
Twelve of the 18 teams with the highest totals went over, including the Washington Nationals (89, 93-69), St. Louis Cardinals (88½, 91-71), Milwaukee Brewers (86½, 89-73), Atlanta Braves (86, 97-65), Tampa Bay Rays (84½, 96-66), Minnesota Twins (84, 101-61) and Oakland Athletics (81½, 97-65).
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Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.