Bowl betting trends: Edge to Georgia, TCU in playoff games
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet.com). He provides the Review-Journal with college football tech notes and trends. Follow @thegoldsheet on Twitter.
Thursday
Minnesota (-10, 42½) vs. Syracuse: The Golden Gophers won and covered their last three bowls. Minnesota is 6-1-1 against the spread in its past eight games vs. nonconference opponents, and the under is on a 9-4-1 run. The Orange closed the season 1-5 straight up and ATS, and they failed to cover four straight as an underdog. Edge: Minnesota and slight to under.
Oklahoma vs. Florida State (-9½, 66½) : The Sooners won and covered two straight bowls. Oklahoma went 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS to close the regular season. The Seminoles won their last five SU (4-1 ATS) and covered eight of their final 11. Edge: Florida State.
Washington vs. Texas (-3, 67½): The Huskies went 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. The past two seasons, DeBoer’s teams are 20-5 and 3-0 as an underdog, with the over on a 9-3-1 run. The Longhorns were 8-4 ATS, with the over going 4-1 in their last five. Edge: Washington and over.
Friday
Maryland vs. North Carolina State (-1, 46½): The Terrapins did their normal fade after midseason, dropping five in a row ATS. But Maryland is 6-1 ATS its last seven games outside the Big Ten. The Wolfpack are 4-8 ATS and 1-4 ATS away from home. Edge: Slight to Maryland.
Pittsburgh vs. UCLA (-5½, 53½): The Panthers lost last year’s bowl game, dropping to 1-5 ATS in their past six bowls. The Bruins are making their first bowl appearance since 2017. UCLA is 6-2 ATS its last eight away from home. The over is 9-3 in UCLA’s games and on a 13-4 run. Edge: Over and slight to UCLA.
South Carolina vs. Notre Dame (-2½, 51): The Gamecocks won and covered five of their last seven and are 4-1 ATS against nonconference foes. The Fighting Irish were 6-6 ATS overall but 4-2 away from home. The last five Notre Dame games went over the total. Edge: South Carolina and over.
Wyoming vs. Ohio (-1½, 41½): The Cowboys won three straight bowl games and are 4-0 ATS in bowls under coach Craig Bohl. Wyoming is on a 5-0 under run. The Bobcats won seven straight and covered eight in a row prior to losing the Mid-American Conference title game to Toledo. Edge: Under and slight to Wyoming.
Clemson (-5½, 63½) vs. Tennessee: The Tigers are 11-3 SU and ATS in bowls/playoffs since 2012. Clemson went 1-3 ATS outside of the Atlantic Coast Conference but is 7-2 ATS its last nine away from home. The Volunteers went 9-3 ATS and covered all four games outside the Southeastern Conference. Tennessee went 1-1 as an underdog. Edge: Slight to Clemson.
Saturday
Kansas State vs. Alabama (-6½, 56): The Crimson Tide are 6-9 ATS their past 15 bowl/playoff games. Alabama went 1-5-1 ATS its last seven and is 1-5 ATS its last six away from home. The Wildcats are on a 12-5-1 spread surge since mid 2021 and covered their past four. Edge: Kansas State.
Iowa (-2, 31½) vs. Kentucky: This is a rematch of last year’s Citrus Bowl won by Kentucky 20-17. The Hawkeyes are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS their past four bowls, and they won and covered four of their last five in the regular season. The Wildcats won their last four bowls outright and are 3-1-1 ATS the last five bowls. Kentucky is on a 10-4-1 ATS run and was 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Kentucky is on a 12-1 under run and Iowa is 9-4 to the under since late 2021. Edge: Under and Kentucky.
Texas Christian vs. Michigan (-7½, 58½): This is the Horned Frogs’ first bowl appearance since 2018. TCU was 9-3 ATS and 2-1 as an underdog. The Frogs finished 4-1 to the under after starting 2-6. The Wolverines are 0-5 SU and ATS in bowls/playoffs. Michigan is 19-7-1 ATS since last season, and the under is on a 9-4-1 run. Edge: Slight to under and TCU.
Ohio State vs. Georgia (-6½, 62): The Buckeyes are 1-3 ATS their past four bowls/playoffs. Ohio State closed 1-4 ATS in its last five, while the over is on a 10-3 run. The Bulldogs are 17-11 ATS since last season, including a modest 7-6 in 2022. Edge: Over and Georgia.
Monday
Mississippi State (-1, 46) vs. Illinois: Zach Arnett was promoted for the Bulldogs after Mike Leach died. Mississippi State went 1-3 ATS its last four bowl games. The Fighting Illini are making their first bowl appearance since 2019. Coach Bret Bielema was 2-1 SU and ATS in bowls with Arkansas, 3-3 ATS with Wisconsin. Illinois is 13-6-1 ATS since early 2021 and also 15-7-1 to the under since Bielema arrived. Edge: Under and slight to Illinois.
Purdue vs. Louisiana State (-14½, 56): Brian Brohm will serve as interim coach for the Boilermakers, who were 4-3 ATS on the road this season but only 5-8 overall ATS and 3-3 as an underdog. Purdue is 10-5 to the over since late last season. The Tigers lost their last two outright and were 1-3 ATS their final four. LSU is 1-5 ATS away from home this season. The over is on a 6-1 run in LSU games. Edge: Over and slight to Purdue.
Tulane vs. Southern California (-2, 62): The Green Wave last appeared in a bowl game in 2020. Tulane is 11-2 ATS this season and 15-3 ATS since late 2021, including 5-0 away from home. The Green Wave covered three straight as an underdog and finished 4-0 to the over. The Trojans have not covered in five straight bowls. USC was 10-3 to the over this season and 16-6 since early 2021. Edge: Tulane and over.
Utah (-2½, 52½) vs. Penn State: The Utes are 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in bowl games, but lost the past two outright. They did cover in last year’s Rose Bowl. Utah is 15-8 ATS since early 2021 and also on a 14-9 over run. The Nittany Lions are 3-3 ATS their last six bowl games. Penn State finished 5-0-1 ATS and 8-3-1 ATS overall. Penn State is 8-4 to the over. Edge: Over and slight to Utah.