College football betting preview: Bigger playoff means more wagers
The College Football Playoff is expanding this season from four teams to 12, and bettors have responded with wagers on a wide range of schools to win the national championship.
“One thing we’ve seen this year with the new format is the handle, as far as the future book, has been the best I’ve seen in years,” veteran Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said of the amount of money wagered.
“College football betting has kind of grown stale. But this year’s completely different with the 12 teams, and people are betting like it’s the NFL, where you get in and you have a shot.”
There are 33 teams with odds of 10-1 or less at the SuperBook to make the CFP and 12 teams with odds of 40-1 or less to win the national title.
“We’ve got some decent money on teams you’d never expect,” Salmons said. “The hottest team going for the public is Ole Miss. They’re betting Ole Miss like they know the answer.”
The Rebels, coached by Lane Kiffin, return a loaded offense led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, and have a favorable schedule.
“A lot of people think they’ll have to really screw up not to make the final 12, the way the schedule shapes up for them,” CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall said.
Georgia, which didn’t make last year’s playoff, is the 2-1 favorite to win its third national championship in four years, and Ohio State is the 3-1 second choice.
Oregon, now in the Big Ten, is tied for the 8-1 third pick with Texas, now in the Southeastern Conference. Alabama and Mississippi are tied for the fifth favorite at 16-1.
“The Big Ten and the SEC are just, heads and shoulders (above everyone else), the two dominant conferences right now,” Salmons said.
The 12-team playoff field will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions — almost certainly the Power Four winners and top Group of Five champ — and the seven highest-ranked remaining teams.
The top 12 favorites at the SuperBook to make the playoffs include five SEC squads (Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana State), four Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan), two Atlantic Coast Conference teams (Clemson, Florida State) and Notre Dame.
“Right now, the question is how many teams are the SEC going to get in?” Marshall said. “I can see four or five coming from the SEC. It’s going to have a pretty heavy SEC look.”
The Group of Five favorites to make the CFP are Liberty (+450), Boise State (+450) and Memphis (6-1).
Here is a glance at the odds to win each of the Power Four conferences and the Mountain West:
SEC
Favorites: Georgia (+180), Texas (3-1), Alabama (+650), Mississippi (8-1)
“The SEC is just so loaded,” Salmons said. “You’ve got Oklahoma and Texas now. Tennessee is a team that’s under the radar, but I think they’re really solid.
“Georgia is just on a different level than all those teams. But the schedule they play is so hard.”
The Bulldogs have road games at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss.
“They’re good enough to probably handle it, but they drew the short straw in the SEC,” Marshall said. “It’s sort of a default to say Georgia (will win the national title). But because they didn’t win last year, that might give them the impetus to do it.”
Big Ten
Favorites: Ohio State (+160), Oregon (2-1), Penn State (+450), Michigan (+750)
“Ohio State is absolutely loaded this year,” Salmons said. “They probably could field a second team that could make the playoffs. That’s how good they are.”
Marshall rates Oregon — one of four former Pac-12 teams, along with Southern California, UCLA and Washington, to join the Big Ten — slightly ahead of the Buckeyes.
“Oregon can win the league. That would not shock me,” he said. “They get Ohio State at home. Their schedule is not that rough.”
Salmons said that travel will be a big factor in Big Ten games this season and that the Ducks will have a huge home-field advantage.
“It’s going to be a lot like these NFL teams that go west to east and east to west,” he said. “They’re going to build in point spreads against teams that are traveling.”
Big 12
Favorites: Utah (3-1), Kansas State (+325), Oklahoma State (7-1), Kansas (9-1)
“There’s a lot of good teams in the Big 12, but they’re just not close to those really top-flight teams in the SEC and Big Ten,” Salmons said. “You’ve got a lot of parity there. You don’t have any great teams, that’s the problem.”
Marshall recommends a play on Iowa State to win the Big 12 at 10-1 odds behind coach Matt Campbell and quarterback Rocco Becht, last season’s Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year.
“I love Matt Campbell,” he said. “Campbell has won pretty consistently, and their defense is really solid. You can get a good price on Iowa State, and I think that’s one of the best values to win a conference.”
ACC
Favorites: Clemson (+250), Florida State (+250), Miami (Fla.) (+450)
“I would rank them Clemson, FSU and then Miami, but I think all three teams have a realistic chance to make the playoffs,” Salmons said. “The rest of them are just a dramatic drop.
“Virginia Tech should be good. They’re definitely a team that’s getting better.”
Marshall said the Hokies are worth a wager to win the ACC at 12-1.
“Virginia Tech is the one real sleeper here because they’ve got everybody back,” he said. “Virginia Tech is a realistic bet to win this league.”
Mountain West
Favorites: Boise State (-125), Fresno State (6-1), UNLV (6-1)
It’s not inconceivable that UNLV can make the CFP this season. The Rebels are 40-1 long shots to make the playoffs.
They went 9-5 last season in their first year under coach Barry Odom after losing to Boise State in the Mountain West championship and to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. UNLV has rematches with both teams this season.
“If they beat Boise and win the Mountain championship game, they definitely have a shot,” Salmons said. “They play at Kansas. Outside of that, there’s no game on that schedule that they can’t win.”
Marshall also gives UNLV an outside chance to make the CFP.
“I would not be surprised if UNLV is back in the championship game and maybe even wins it, because I think that much of Odom,” he said. “I’m not that sold on Boise. I do not think Fresno now because (coach Jeff) Tedford has retired again.
“I think it’s there for UNLV.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.