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Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace among best bets for Daytona 500

Denny Hamlin is the favorite in the Daytona 500 for a reason, and handicapper Micah Roberts can’t help but include him on his betting card for Sunday’s race.

Hamlin (+1,095 at Circa Sports) is going for his third straight Daytona 500 victory and fourth overall.

“Just consider that Kyle Busch has never won the Daytona 500,” Roberts said. “Neither has Brad Keselowski. Neither has Chase Elliott, Tony Stewart. Dale Earnhardt almost went a whole career without winning one until his 20th year.

“And this guy has won three in the past five years. So it’s not just luck.”

Roberts (@MicahRoberts7, Sportsline.com) has Hamlin among six selections for the race, which kicks off the NASCAR season.

Hamlin appears to have mastered a key skill at Daytona: Avoiding the “Big One,” a massive wreck that can cause huge pileups with cars tightly packed on the superspeedway.

Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said Hamlin knows how to “go toward the back and ride around where he thinks it’s safe. If one guy makes a mistake, he could take out 15 cars at once.”

Because of those big wrecks and the nature of superspeedway racing, Salmons said he doesn’t put much stock in starting position. Hamlin is starting 25th but will have ample opportunities to move up, he said.

Bubba Wallace is one of the top storylines at Daytona — and also a top contender. The only Black driver on NASCAR’s top circuit is in his first season with the new racing team formed by basketball great Michael Jordan and Hamlin.

Most important for bettors, Wallace is aligned with the Joe Gibbs team that Hamlin races for, and Hamlin probably will work with Wallace at times during the race.

“Wallace is a really good driver who has just not had the right equipment,” Salmons said. “You switch him into good equipment, and he has a realistic chance to win.”

Roberts points out that though Wallace had only three top-five finishes in three years with Richard Petty’s team, two of those came at Daytona, including being runner-up in the 500 in 2018.

Wallace’s price has dropped after Roberts saw him as high as 28-1 earlier in the week. He was 15-1 or worse at most Las Vegas sportsbooks Saturday, but the Golden Nugget was still offering 25-1. (Note: Some sportsbooks list him under Darrell Wallace Jr.)

Besides Hamlin and Wallace, Roberts said he likes Ryan Blaney (best price +1,495 at Circa), Aric Almirola (18-1 at various books), William Byron (18-1 at BetMGM and Boyd Gaming) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (26-1 at Circa).

The best prices on Las Vegans Kyle and Kurt Busch are also at Circa. Kyle Busch is 17-1, and Kurt is 32-1.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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