Presidential betting odds closer to toss-up as Election Day nears
Presidential election betting markets moved dramatically Saturday night and into Sunday morning as Vice President Kamala Harris continues to close the gap on former President Donald Trump.
Trump was as low as a -123 favorite Sunday at Betfair Exchange in London to win the election over Harris, a +120 underdog. Trump was as high as -210 on Wednesday. The current odds mean bettors must wager $123 to win $100 on Trump to be elected and $100 to win $120 on Harris to be elected.
“This is beginning to shape up like the 50-50 race we anticipated when the matchup was set in July,” BetOnline.ag political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said. “The betting markets were following the large amount of money being wagered on Trump, but now we’re seeing the smarter bettors come in and grab all the value that is left with Harris. I expect to see (the) odds get close to a toss-up by Election Day.”
The odds are already a virtual toss-up at electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com and Polymarket.com.
Trump’s chances have dropped from 61.2 percent on the site Oct. 28 to 51.5 percent, which equates to -106, on Sunday. Harris has seen her chances improve from 38.3 percent Oct. 28 to 48.0 percent Sunday, or +108.
Krishnamurty, also a political betting analyst for Betfair, said the main reason for the line moves Saturday night was a surprising Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll that showed Harris ahead of Trump in the state by a margin of 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Trump has dropped from a heavy -2,000 favorite to -500 to win the electoral college vote in Iowa.
“The driver was that bombshell Iowa poll,” Krishnamurty said. “Iowa is seen as a good guide for the Midwest. There is a historic correlation between the Hawkeye state and Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”
Favorites flip in swing states
Trump was the favorite to win all seven swing states on Oct. 28: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But the favorite has flipped to Harris in Michigan, Wisconsin and the key state of Pennsylvania. Harris flipped from the +110 underdog to the -140 favorite Saturday at BetOnline to win Wisconsin. She went from +125 to -120 to win Pennsylvania.
Harris beat Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent, in the final Pennsylvania poll by Muhlenberg College.
“Coupled with the early voting data signals from Pennsylvania, I make her the favorite in that state now,” Krishnamurty said. “And whoever wins Pennsylvania is the hot favorite for the presidency.”
Trump is still favored to win Nevada (-155 at BetOnline) but his chances to win the Silver State have also taken a hit.
His chances at electionbettingodds.com were 66.0 percent, or -194, on Friday to win Nevada. They dropped Sunday to 56.5 percent, or -130. Harris’ chances to win Nevada have improved from 34.0 percent (+194) Friday to 43.5 percent (+130) Sunday.
Trump dropped from a -210 favorite at BetOnline on Wednesday to win the election to -173 on Friday. He dropped to as low as -125 on Saturday night at the offshore sportsbook that isn’t regulated in the U.S.
“Could have a new favorite by tomorrow,” BetOnline brand manager Dave Mason posted on X (@DaveMasonBOL) after reporting wagers on Harris of $100,000 at +120 and $49,949 at +110.
He later posted a max bet on Trump of $125,000 to win $100,000 (-125).
The book bumped Trump to -138 on Sunday morning, with Harris at +118.
Harris is the -450 favorite to win the popular vote and Trump is +325.
Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.