Fortunate Suns favored over Giannis-less Bucks in NBA Finals

The fortunate Suns.

That’s what Phoenix has been on its playoff path to the NBA Finals, where it’s a -180 favorite over Milwaukee (+160) to win the franchise’s first league title and a 5½-point home favorite over the Bucks in Tuesday’s Game 1.

In the injury-riddled 2021 postseason, the Suns have faced the Los Angeles Lakers without Anthony Davis, the Denver Nuggets without Jamal Murray and the Los Angeles Clippers without Kawhi Leonard.

Now, Phoenix is expected to face Milwaukee without two-time reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.

“Four teams in their path were missing their top one or two players,” Westgate vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said. “It’s crazy.”

Antetokounmpo suffered a hyperextended left knee in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Atlanta and sat out the rest of the six-game series against the Hawks.

His status is uncertain for Tuesday but oddsmakers don’t expect him to play.

Before his injury, the Westgate made the Bucks -150 favorites over the Suns in a potential NBA Finals matchup. But with Antetokounmpo still sidelined, the book flipped the script and opened the series price at Phoenix -150. The betting public has since bet the number up as high as -190.

“We thought -150 was correct because we expect to see Giannis sometime in this series,” Sherman said. “There are a lot of unknowns with this. I definitely don’t expect to see Giannis (Tuesday) night and probably not in Game 2. But that’s just pure speculation.

“I think it will be situational. If the Bucks split the first two games 1-1, I don’t think we’ll see him until Game 4. But if they’re down 2-0, I think we’ll see him in Game 3.”

Sherman said sharp bettors backed Phoenix at -150 in the series and sharps also took the Suns in Game 1 at the opening number of -5. The line moved to 6 before settling at 5½ on Monday. The total is 218½.

Phoenix swept the regular season series with a pair of 1-point wins in high-scoring affairs: 125-124 at home on Feb. 10 and 128-127 in overtime on the road April 19.

Best bet

Handicapper Doug Fitz likes the Suns -5½ in Game 1.

“The Bucks are coming off a hard-fought series against the Hawks while the Suns had a bit of an easier time eliminating the Clippers,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “With Giannis likely out, the Suns should cruise in Game 1.”

NBA Finals MVP

Phoenix point guard Chris Paul is the +175 favorite to be named MVP of his first NBA Finals and Suns shooting guard Devin Booker is the +225 second choice.

“Chris Paul is the team leader and he was in the regular-season MVP conversation,” Sherman said. “He might not have the statistics Booker puts up in games but he has that MVP leadership role on the team.

“If the Suns win the title, everybody knows how he never made it to the NBA Finals, and a lot of people will look to reward him with that.”

Antetokounmpo is the +350 third choice.

“He wouldn’t be anywhere near that if he was healthy,” Sherman said. “That number takes into account him not starting the series and playing from behind to get that award.

”If the Bucks are down a couple games and he comes back and they win it, he’d be a viable candidate for it.”

Bucks forward Khris Middleton is +650 and guard Jrue Holiday is 12-1. Phoenix center Deandre Ayton is 25-1 and every other player is 100-1 or higher.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.