Handicapper likes Colorado State in MW tournament, Arizona in Pac-12
Only four men’s college basketball teams in the past 40 years have entered the NCAA Tournament undefeated. None won the title, as Indiana State finished 33-1 in 1979, UNLV finished 34-1 in 1991, Wichita State went 35-1 in 2014 and Kentucky ended up 38-1 in 2015.
After suffering its first loss of the season Saturday, to Brigham Young, Gonzaga (29-1) won’t have to shoulder the added weight of history in the postseason of trying to become the first unbeaten team since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers (32-0) to win the national championship.
Handicapper Doug Fitz (Systemplays.com) said he thinks the defeat will benefit the Bulldogs, who are minus-400 favorites at the Westgate to win the West Coast Conference tournament, scheduled Friday through Tuesday at Orleans Arena.
“The best thing that could’ve happened to them was losing that game. All the pressure is off now. There’s no more talk about going undefeated,” he said. “Of course, Gonzaga’s going to win the WCC. The only team that has a remote chance, year in and year out, is BYU or Saint Mary’s. But they’re the next tier down.
“Every year, (Gonzaga) wins it, and they’re a better team this year.”
The Bulldogs, 20-6-1 against the spread this season, have won four straight WCC tournament titles and 14 of the past 18. Saint Mary’s (26-3, 16-2) is the second choice at 7-2 odds, and BYU (21-10, 12-6) is 10-1.
William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich also expects Gonzaga’s loss to have a positive impact on the team.
“If anything, it will wake them up and make them work a little harder,” he said. “I fully expect them to win the conference tournament and be No. 1 in the West.”
The WCC event is the first of four conference tournaments in Las Vegas, with the Mountain West and Pac-12 tourneys to follow March 8 to 11 and the Western Athletic Conference from March 9 to 11.
“The Pac-12 is wide open. It wouldn’t surprise me if USC got hot or if Cal got hot or if Utah got hot,” Bogdanovich said. “And the Mountain West is completely wide open. Any of those teams can win it.”
Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons projects Oregon as an 8-5 favorite in the Pac-12, followed by UCLA (9-5), Arizona (7-2), California (12-1), Utah (20-1) and Southern California (40-1).
In the Mountain West, he projects UNR as a 9-5 favorite, followed by San Diego State (7-2), Boise State (4-1) and Colorado State (9-2).
“I like the way Colorado State plays and, with the conference as a whole being pretty weak this year, I think Colorado State has a pretty good chance of taking this,” Fitz said. “They’re a good point-spread team, too.”
The Rams (20-9, 12-4) have covered eight of 10 and 13 of 17 en route to a 16-7 ATS record. UNR (23-6, 12-4) has covered four straight and seven of nine and is 18-11 ATS.
Fitz likes Arizona to win the Pac-12 title over Oregon.
“Arizona is a little more balanced on both ends of the court, and Sean Miller’s a good coach,” he said. “But I don’t think any Pac-12 team has a shot at winning the whole thing. UCLA scores a ton of points but gives up a ton of points, and Oregon’s kind of the same way.
“A flashy offensive team is great for the regular season and exciting to watch, but teams like that seldom win the whole thing.”
Depending on the type of region they get, Salmons likes either UCLA or Oregon to reach the Final Four. But he doesn’t see Gonzaga making it that far.
“Being a 1 or 2 seed, Gonzaga should easily get to the Sweet 16, but based on tournament history, they’ll take a team like Gonzaga and stack that region against them, like they did to Wichita State (in 2014),” he said. “That was the hardest region in the history of the tournament. I expect them to do the same thing against Gonzaga.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.