Handicappers see live underdogs on UFC 249 card
At long last, bettors have a major American sporting event to wager on — and some live underdogs to back.
Mixed martial arts returns with UFC 249 on Saturday in Jacksonville, Florida, headlined by Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje battling for the interim lightweight title.
Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro (@GambLou) jumped on Gaethje last week as a +160 underdog and said he’s still worth a bet at his current +150 at the Westgate.
Gaethje was originally a late replacement to fight Ferguson on a card scheduled for April 18 that fell through.
“Ferguson’s advantage was the short notice, and that’s eliminated for him now,” Finocchiaro said.
Handicapper Brian Edwards (@vegasbedwards, Majorwager.com) also likes Gaethje, but only for a small bet.
Gaethje “is that guy who can beat anybody in the division with his power and chin,” Edwards said.
Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said the book had taken several bets on Ferguson, the largest for $3,500.
“Almost all of the money will come in on Saturday,” he said via text message. “I do think handle will be very good. It’s a great card, and people are very eager to bet on something.”
Edwards also said Dominick Cruz is worth a shot as a +210 underdog against bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo, despite not having fought since December 2016.
“He’s been there, done that with comebacks from long layoffs,” Edwards said, noting that Cruz came back from a three-year layoff to beat Takeya Mizugaki in 2014, then was out again for more than a year before beating T.J. Dillashaw.
Edwards acknowledged that the fighters’ careers have been on different trajectories, but there was a time when “if anyone would have Cejudo favored over Cruz, it would have been laughable.”
Finocchiaro said he just doesn’t see Cruz having much of a shot after his long layoff and with his injury history.
“I give him a lot of respect for taking the fight,” Finocchiaro said.
Finocchiaro and Edwards also differ on the round total for the heavyweight bout between Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Finocchiaro likes it to go over 1½ rounds (-115) because of the style Rozenstruik will need to use.
“He has to use speed, mobility, evasion and leg kicks to try to get deep into the fight,” Finocchiaro said.
Edwards merely points to the fighters’ records in looking at under 1½ (-105). Ngannou’s last seven victories have come in the first round, including a three-fight winning streak that has taken a total of 2 minutes, 22 seconds.
Rozenstruik is 10-0 with nine knockouts, seven in the first round.
Finocchiaro’s other best bet is on Michelle Waterson (+135) against Carla Esparza in a strawweight fight.
“She has a more well-rounded arsenal, and she’s the larger woman,” Finocchiaro said.
Finocchiaro also said the price has moved too much against Bryce Mitchell in his featherweight bout against Charles Rosa. Mitchell opened as a favorite of around -220 but is down to -160.
“I totally disagree with the move and will take the value with Mitchell,” Finocchiaro said.
Edwards also likes Mitchell at that price, and he and Finocchiaro also agree that Rozenstruik (+220) and Niko Price (+240) are worth small shots as underdogs. Price is facing Vicente Luque (-280) in a welterweight bout.
Edwards also recommends plays on Jeremy Stephens (+200) in a featherweight fight with Calvin Kattar, and under 1½ rounds (+100) in the heavyweight bout between Aleksei Oleinik and Fabricio Werdum.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.