History working against McIlroy bettors in British Open

Rory McIlroy will try to duplicate that feat this week when the 151st British Open takes place at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England. He is listed as the +575 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook and +770 at Circa Sports.

The Westgate SuperBook has McIlroy the 7-1 co-favorite with Scottie Scheffler.

“It’s very difficult when you win the week prior to a major to follow that up with a win at a major. You just don’t see that too often,” Westgate golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “When I’m handicapping this stuff myself, I prefer my guy not to win the week prior. Run well, things like that. But when you get that win, it’s so hard to double it back with the strength of these fields these days.”

McIlroy won the third of his four majors the last time the British Open was held at Royal Liverpool in 2014. That coupled with his birdie-birdie finish to win last week in Scotland pushed his odds down further.

While there is little value left in the futures market wagering on McIlroy to win, VSiN host Wes Reynolds recommends a play on McIlroy to finish in the top 10.

Reynolds, co-host of the “Long Shots” golf betting podcast, also likes Scheffler to post a top-10 finish. The world’s No. 1-ranked player was third at the U.S. Open and tied for the second at the PGA Championship after tying for 10th at the Masters.

Scheffler is +650 at Caesars and +775 at Circa to win the British Open.

“The tee-to-green play is really important, and obviously Scheffler is a starting point with that,” Sherman said. “If he was able to make some putts over the last few months, he’d be on a run like we’ve never seen outside of Tiger obviously.”

Best bets

Reynolds and Sherman have one common play in Patrick Cantlay, who is 20-1 at the Westgate to win his first major and +2050 at Circa.

Cantlay missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open, but Reynolds believes bettors should be encouraged by his second-round 67.

“Cantlay is No. 1 on the PGA Tour for total driving and keeps the ball in play, which will be vital this week,” Reynolds said.

Sherman also bet on four other golfers to win, albeit at significantly better odds than their current number. He has Rickie Fowler (25-1 at Westgate), Min Woo Lee (60-1), Talor Gooch (60-1) and Matthew Jordan (300-1), who is playing on his home course.

More plays

Reynolds also likes Viktor Hovland (20-1), Collin Morikawa (30-1), Tony Finau (60-1), Justin Rose (60-1), Hideki Matsuyama (60-1), Adam Scott (80-1) and Jason Day (80-1).

Hovland hasn’t missed a cut in more than a year and finished fourth at last year’s British Open after playing in the final group on Sunday.

“Hovland has been through the pain of near misses at major championships, so he has the scar tissue,” Reynolds said. “Furthermore, the victory at The Memorial showed that he can win big-time events under big-time pressure.”

Morikawa lost in a playoff to Fowler three weeks ago in Detroit then skipped the Scottish Open to prepare on his own. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green.

“His impeccable iron play has returned, and his distance disadvantage off the tee is mitigated this week as most players will club down off the tee,” Reynolds said.

Reynolds recommends three matchup plays, taking Brooks Koepka (-130 at South Point) over Cameron Smith, Corey Conners (-150 at WynnBet) over Ryan Fox, and Hovland (-115 at BetMGM) over Tommy Fleetwood.

The Westgate has the winning score at 268½ for the par-71 course, and Sherman believes the conditions could be conducive to see low scores. McIlroy shot 17-under to win in 2014, and Tiger Woods was 18-under in his 2006 victory when Royal Liverpool was par 72.

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.