Illinois surges to NCAA tourney liability for sportsbooks
The story of the college basketball season can be told by tracking futures odds.
Gonzaga and Baylor were the protagonists, then Michigan played a major role, but now the climax comes with a twist. An Illinois team lurking in the background all season might have become the most important character.
The Illini are now the 5-1 second favorites at the Westgate to win the NCAA Tournament after a late-season surge. Las Vegas sportsbooks say Illinois will be one team they have to root against in March because bettors have piled onto the Illini’s bandwagon.
“Big run on Illinois,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “No surprise.”
In May when Westgate reopened its sportsbook app after the shutdown caused by the pandemic, Illinois was 100-1 to win the title. Gonzaga was the 10-1 favorite. Baylor was the 14-1 second choice. Michigan was 80-1.
When the season started in November, Illinois’ odds had been cut to 25-1, but the Illini were still behind eight teams and tied with two others. Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan’s odds hadn’t moved.
By January, Gonzaga and Baylor had separated themselves from the pack at +250 and 4-1, respectively. Michigan now had bettors’ attention and was all the way down to 14-1 at the Westgate, but Illinois still loped along at 25-1.
But after a loss to Ohio State on Jan. 16, the Illini caught fire. Illinois went 14-1 the rest of the way, including a 76-53 romp at Michigan on March 2 and a three-game run to the Big Ten tournament title.
Illinois’ odds plummeted, while Baylor and Michigan stagnated down the stretch. Gonzaga is the strong favorite at the Westgate at +180, but Illinois is next at 5-1. Baylor and Michigan are at 8-1.
Taking bets at low single digits for most of the season, Gonzaga is not a problem for sportsbooks. Illinois is, with a ton of bets around 25-1 and a few at even longer odds before the season.
Circa Sports, the Westgate and William Hill all reported Illinois as being one of their worst results from a futures perspective.
“The public is in love with Illinois,” Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Now that we have liability with Illinois, it’s probably a little bit lower than it should be.”
Salmons said he has Baylor and Illinois power-rated the same, but Gonzaga remains four to six points ahead of them.
Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said its worst futures results would be Colorado, Connecticut, Houston, Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. The Westgate would do well on Baylor and very well on Alabama, Arkansas or Texas Tech, he said. It would lose a little bit on Gonzaga, Iowa and Ohio State.
Circa sportsbook director Matt Metcalf said, “Texas and Illinois are two teams we’ll probably be fading, and Gonzaga is a team we’re rooting for.”
Bogdanovich said William Hill does the worst on Arkansas, Illinois, Michigan and San Diego State, and the best on Georgia Tech, Iowa, Louisiana State and Oklahoma State.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said he’ll be looking to dodge relative long shots in Brigham Young and Colorado, but lots of money has been pouring in on Georgetown, which made a surprise run to the Big East title and an automatic NCAA Tournament bid.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter. Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey contributed to this story.