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Jim Barnes’ forecast: Now is the time to bet on UNLV

It’s not easy to walk up to the betting window and wager real money on a football team that hasn’t won a game since 2019, but UNLV is worthy of a bet Saturday as a 2-point underdog at New Mexico.

For starters, look at the betting line. The Rebels, who are 0-8 this season and 0-14 under coach Marcus Arroyo, are getting fewer than 3 points on the road.

This looks like free money on New Mexico, which is 3-5 and is off a bye after a 14-3 win over Wyoming.

Of course, sportsbooks aren’t in the business of giving out free money.

UNLV has been competitive in the Mountain West this season. The Rebels had fourth-quarter leads in losses to Fresno State, Utah State and San Jose State, and UNLV also lost only by seven to undefeated Texas-San Antonio.

The Rebels were shellacked by UNR last week, but that could almost be expected after a series of heartbreaking defeats. UNLV should be refocused this week for perhaps its best chance to avoid another winless season.

New Mexico lost 38-10 to Air Force, 31-7 to San Diego State and 36-7 to Colorado State before surprising Wyoming.

It’s scary, but take the Rebels to end their losing streak.

Four other plays for Saturday:

— North Carolina -2½: A “this doesn’t look right” special, as the unranked 4-4 Tar Heels are favored over undefeated No. 10 Wake Forest. North Carolina has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country this season, with the Heisman hopes of quarterback Sam Howell up in smoke. Here’s the Tar Heels’ chance to notch a signature win and salvage something from this season. Wake Forest scores a lot but gives up a lot on defense.

— Navy +21: The Midshipmen have lost to Notre Dame by more than 21 only once in the last eight meetings. It’s difficult to cover three touchdowns against an option team that runs the clock, and that should be the case again for the Fighting Irish.

— Texas State -3½: Why stop at UNLV-New Mexico? Bet on another game between two of the worst teams in college football. Louisiana-Monroe has pulled off two big upsets at home, but the Warhawks have really struggled on the road. The Bobcats return home after a 45-0 loss at Louisiana (Lafayette), and they should be focused and ready for a rare winnable game.

— Purdue +3: Another “this doesn’t look right” special, with the Boilermakers catching only 3 points against undefeated Michigan State, newly installed at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Spartans have beaten oddsmakers’ expectations all season and may do so again, but I’ll take my chances that Purdue catches Michigan State flat after its upset of rival Michigan.

— Last week: 2-3

— Season: 21-23-1

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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