Tony Finau ended a five-year victory drought on the PGA Tour on Monday when he won The Northern Trust in a playoff over Cameron Smith, cashing as a 50-1 long shot.
Handicapper Wes Reynolds, co-host of VSiN’s “Long Shots” golf betting show, is looking at several golfers with shorter odds to win this week’s BMW Championship, which will feature the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup playoff standings at Caves Valley near Baltimore.
Here are Reynolds’ (@WesReynolds1) best bets, with comments on each:
Justin Thomas, 20-1
“Thomas shared the first-round lead last week with Rahm but settled for a tie for fourth place. However, he found something with his putter, as he was 11th best in the field for putting.
“The approach game was also solid at The Northern Trust, and he also has the most total strokes gained on Tom Fazio designs over the last 36 rounds. He won on a Fazio design at Quail Hollow in 2017.”
Bryson DeChambeau, 20-1
“The wedge game has been struggling of late for DeChambeau, but it showed signs of life last week in New Jersey.
“DeChambeau has always been good with the longer irons. The putter did not fire last week, but all other facets of his game looked good and he’s still the biggest hitter in the game. That will play well on this week’s big boy golf course.”
Patrick Cantlay, 24-1
“Although he is likely to make the Ryder Cup team, Cantlay surely has some motivation to lock up a spot this week.
“He also ranks first in scrambling and is in the top five in several other key categories over the last 24 rounds.”
Paul Casey, 34-1
“Casey has been the model of consistency with nine top 10s in 18 starts, including a win in Dubai for us earlier this year.
“He was brutal on the greens last week at Liberty National, but tends to rebound his next time out from dreadful putting and scrambling. The ball striking was near the top of the field in New Jersey last week.”
Hideki Matsuyama, 40-1
“Matsuyama finished runner-up three weeks ago in Memphis, just one week after the disappointment of not earning a medal at the Tokyo Olympics.
“He also has good enough form on Fazio designs, most notably a fourth-place finish at the Olympics.”
Keegan Bradley, 90-1
“Bradley has a lot to play for this week. A top-seven finish would get him into the Tour Championship and earn him invitations to the 2022 Masters, U.S. Open and British Open.
“He also ranks fourth for total driving and first for greens in regulation from 200-plus yards.”
At Circa Sports
Odds up to 30-1
Jon Rahm +640
Justin Thomas +1,550
Collin Morikawa 19-1
Rory McIlroy 20-1
Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
Xander Schauffele 21-1
Dustin Johnson 23-1
Patrick Cantlay 24-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Cameron Smith 30-1