Kentucky basketball piling up wins for bettors

Las Vegas Review-Journal

5 years ago

Kentucky guard Ashton Hagans (0) drives the baseline against Texas A&M forward Emanuel Mill ... — Kentucky guard Ashton Hagans (0) drives the baseline against Texas A&M forward Emanuel Miller (5) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Kentucky forward EJ Montgomery (23) grabs a rebound against Texas A&M during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Kentucky forward Nick Richards (4) dunks over Texas A&M forward Josh Nebo (32) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Texas A&M guard Savion Flagg (1) tries to steal the ball from Kentucky guard Immanuel Quickley (5) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Kentucky head coach John Calipari talks to his team during a timeout against Texas A&M during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Texas A&M guard Wendell Mitchell (11) blocks a shot attempt by Kentucky guard Immanuel Quickley (5) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Kentucky guard Immanuel Quickley (5) reacts with teammate Nick Richards (4) after a foul call during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Texas A&M Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Some computers don’t love Kentucky, but the Wildcats have been cashing tickets for bettors.

Kentucky, No. 8 in The Associated Press poll, is on a 6-1 run against the spread entering Saturday’s home game against No. 15 Auburn.

The Wildcats (23-5) are projected as 5-point favorites over the Tigers (24-4), according to the analytics website kenpom.com, whose lines tend to match sportsbooks’ eventual numbers. Las Vegas books won’t post lines on Saturday’s games until Friday afternoon.

Oddsmakers haven’t quite been able to catch up to the Wildcats’ recent surge. Kentucky beat Florida by six as a 5-point favorite Saturday and defeated Texas A&M by nine as a 6-point favorite Tuesday.

Two of the major publicly available power ratings still aren’t high on Kentucky. The Wildcats are No. 27 on kenpom and No. 23 in ESPN’s BPI. Jeff Sagarin’s system has Kentucky at No. 6, though.

Auburn has won and covered its last two games, against Tennessee and Mississippi, both by a half point, after losing two straight.

Some other notes on Saturday’s games:

— No. 9 Maryland, fresh off a win in the final seconds Wednesday at Minnesota, will try to complete a season sweep of No. 24 Michigan State in College Park, Maryland. The Terrapins pulled off a 67-60 upset of the Spartans on Feb. 15 as 6½-point road underdogs. Maryland is projected as a 3-point favorite by kenpom.

— No. 12 Villanova is projected as a 9-point favorite over Providence, and handicapper Brian Edwards (@vegasbedwards, MajorWager.com) said he would be looking to back the underdog Friars at a line of 5 or higher.

“Providence is 6-3-1 ATS with five outright wins in its last 10 as an underdog, and Villanova is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home,” he said.

Providence is sitting firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, projected as one of the last four teams in the field Thursday on ESPN’s Bracketology.

— The only other game pitting ranked teams Saturday is No. 16 Penn State at No. 18 Iowa. The Hawkeyes are projected as 3-point home favorites. The Big Ten race remains tight. Maryland is in the lead, two games ahead of Penn State and Michigan State. Iowa is sixth but only a game out of second. Penn State defeated Iowa 89-86 as a 2½-point home favorite Jan. 4.

— No. 5 San Diego State will try to stay on track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in the regular-season finale at UNR. The Aztecs (27-1) struggled in their next game after losing their first game to UNLV on Saturday, rallying for a 66-60 victory over Colorado State on Tuesday but failing to cover as 13½-point home favorites.

San Diego State is projected as a 7-point favorite against the Wolf Pack, who are on a six-game winning streak.

The Mountain West tournament starts Wednesday at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter. Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey contributed to this story.