Las Vegan Kyle Busch among best bets for South Point 400

The three-race round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kicks off Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but some drivers could be better off treating it as an elimination round.

NASCAR handicapper Micah Roberts, an analyst for SportsLine.com, said drivers know they need to go after the victory in Las Vegas, because the next stop at Talladega invites a lot more luck into the equation with superspeedway-style racing. After that comes the elimination race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

“The Vegas race is so important,” Roberts (@MicahRoberts7) said. “Talladega, you can’t count on anything. It’s a wild card. Your fate’s not necessarily in your hands because you could get into other people’s wrecks.”

Sunday’s South Point 400 will be won by the team that makes the right adjustment to the 550-horsepower setup in Las Vegas after a string of 750-horsepower tracks, Roberts said.

Roberts said he views Kyle Larson, Las Vegan Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski as the top tier Sunday.

Larson (3-1 at the Westgate SuperBook) is the deserving favorite, Roberts said, after winning the first Las Vegas race in March, kicking off a banner season that has included six victories, including last week at Bristol Motor Speedway. Kyle Busch is the second choice at 7-1 and is also a top contender.

“Las Vegas is a track where driver rating holds up a lot more,” Roberts said. “There’s not a lot of unforeseen wrecks. It’s usually the champions and the best of the best that win.”

Larson or Busch could easily be in Victory Lane, but Roberts said he would look at the longer odds of Hamlin (8-1) and Keselowski (22-1 at Circa Sports). Hamlin has finished third and fourth in the past two races in Las Vegas, and Keselowski is a three-time winner here.

Further down the board, Roberts said he would look at Alex Bowman (22-1 at Circa) and Las Vegan Kurt Busch (40-1), who won the South Point 400 last year.

One driver Roberts is crossing off is Kevin Harvick, who is winless this season but is still priced lower (14-1) than other contenders.

“That’s crazy,” Roberts said. “He can’t win. He doesn’t have the car.”

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.