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MARCH MADNESS BAD BEATS BLOG: Baylor-Gonzaga prop grades

Updated April 6, 2021 - 7:16 am

The college basketball season has made it to the finish line with the matchup fans have wanted to see.

Undefeated overall No. 1 seed Gonzaga takes on fellow No. 1 seed Baylor in the NCAA Tournament final today in Indianapolis. William Hill offered a prop early in the season on those two teams vs. everyone else: Will Baylor or Gonzaga win the national title? “No” opened as a -125 favorite, but “yes” closed at -170.

The “yes” bettors will have their feet up tonight enjoying the game.

We’ll be following all the action. Refresh this blog throughout the game to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, props, halftime bets and much more.

UPDATES

8:50 p.m.: That’s it for tonight. Here are the betting results for the national title game:

— No. 1 Baylor 86, No. 1 Gonzaga 70

Full-game winners: Baylor +4½, under 158½, Baylor +185 ML

First-half winners: Baylor +2½, over 74½ (Baylor 47-37)

Second-half winners: Baylor +5½, under 86½ (Baylor 39-33)

Thanks for reading all through March Madness. We’ll be back April 29 for betting on the NFL draft.

8:40 p.m.: Gonzaga-Baylor props:

General props: First made field goal will be a 2-pointer (-280), a player will score 20 or more points (yes -210, 22 by two players), total 3-pointers made under 16 (15), largest lead by either team over 13½ points.

Baylor props: MaCio Teague over 15½ points (19), under 3½ rebounds (2), under 1½ assists (0), under 2½ free throws made (1); Jared Butler over 15½ points (22), under 3½ rebounds (3), over 4½ assists (7), over 2½ free throws made (6); Davion Mitchell over 13½ points (15), over 2½ rebounds (6), under 5½ assists (5), over 1½ free throws made (2); Adam Flagler over 8½ points (13), under 2½ rebounds (2), over 1½ free throws made (4); Matthew Mayer under 8½ points (2), under 3½ rebounds (2); Mark Vital over 4½ points (6); Flo Thamba under 3½ points (3); Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua over 5½ points (6).

Gonzaga props: Drew Timme under 21½ points (12), under 6½ rebounds (5), under 3½ assists (3), under 3½ free throws made (2); Corey Kispert under 16½ points (12), under 5½ rebounds (3), over 1½ assists (2), under 2½ free throws made (0), under 2½ 3-pointers (2); Jalen Suggs over 14½ points (22), under 5½ rebounds (1), under 4½ assists (3), over 2½ free throws made (4); Joel Ayayi under 12½ points (8), under 6½ rebounds (2), under 2½ assists (1), over 1½ free throws made (2); Andrew Nembhard under 9½ points (9), over 2½ rebounds (4), under 4½ assists (4), over 1½ free throws made (5).

8:34 p.m.: Baylor covered all the alternate lines: -12½ (+750), -9½ (+600), -5½ (+400), -3½ (+270). The Bears were 9-1 to win by 10 or more at Circa and 22-1 at BetMGM to win by 16 to 20 points.

8:26 p.m.: FINAL: Baylor 86, Gonzaga 70. The Bears roll to victory as 4½-point underdogs, +185 ML. The game slows down late to stay under 158½. Baylor goes over its team total of 77½; Gonzaga stays under 81½.

8:18 p.m.: The total of 158½ remains in some doubt, sitting at 147.

8:17 p.m.: Baylor leads 82-65 with 3:18 left in the second half, and the Bears are -16½ on the live spread (live line turned off).

8:05 p.m.: It’s just not happening for Gonzaga. Baylor leads 75-59 with 7:42 left in the second half, and the Bears are -6,000 on the live line (Gonzaga +1,600), spread -11½, total 170½.

7:54 p.m.: Baylor leads 67-53 with 11:45 left in the second half, and the Bears are -1,200 on the live line (Gonzaga +700), spread -10½, total 173½.

7:48 p.m.: Baylor has re-extended the lead. The Bears are up 67-51 with 12:54 left in the second half and are -1,500 on the live line (Gonzaga +790), spread -10½, total 175½.

7:40 p.m.: Baylor leads 56-45 with 15:51 left in the second half. The Bears are -320 on the live line (Gonzaga +250), spread -5½, total 169½.

7:34 p.m.: The second half is underway.

7:22 p.m.: Some props that hit in the first half:

Baylor: Adam Flagler over 1½ free throws made (2, -120).

Gonzaga props: Corey Kispert over 1½ assists (2, -140); Jalen Suggs over 2½ free throws made (3, -130); Joel Ayayi over 1½ free throws made (2, -140); Andrew Nembhard over 1½ free throws made (5).

7:15 p.m.: Live line at halftime: Baylor -200 (Gonzaga +160), spread -3½, total 170½.

7:12 p.m.: Second-half line: Gonzaga -5½, total 86½.

7:11 p.m.: HALFTIME: Baylor 47, Gonzaga 37. First-half winners: Baylor +2½, over 74½, Baylor +145 ML.

7:01 p.m.: Gonzaga is trying to trim the lead. Baylor is up 38-26 with 3:46 left in the first half, and the Bears are -290 on the live line (Bulldogs +225), spread -5½, total 162½.

6:50 p.m.: All Baylor so far. The Bears lead 31-14 with 7:50 left in the first half and are -550 on the live line (Gonzaga +390), spread -8½, total 159½.

6:40 p.m.: Baylor leads 23-8 with 11:42 left in the first half. The Bears are -400 on the live line (Gonzaga +300), spread -7½, total 160½. Baylor wins the race to 15 points at +115 and the race to 20 at +120.

6:38 p.m.: Baylor leads 23-8 and already cashes the prop for largest lead by either team over 13½.

6:34 p.m.: Baylor leads 16-4 with 14:25 left in the first half. The Bears are -162 on the live line (Gonzaga +132), spread -2½, total 158½.

6:29 p.m.: Fast start for Baylor. The Bears lead 11-1 with 15:30 left in the first half and are -142 on the live line (Gonzaga +116), spread -2½, toal 154½. Baylor wins the race to five points at -105 and the race to 10 at +100.

6:22 p.m.: Baylor’s Davion Mitchell hits the first basket at odds of +650 at BetMGM and William Hill, then he hits the first 3-pointer at odds of +680. The first basket was a 2-pointer at -280.

6:20 p.m.: William reported two six-figure bets on the game: $110,000 on under 159 and $105,000 on Gonzaga -4½, both at -110 odds.

6:17 p.m.: The game is about to tip off. Closing line at the Westgate:

— No. 1 Gonzaga (-4½, 158½, -195) vs. No. 1 Baylor (+185), 6:20 p.m.

6 p.m.: The line has held steady today at Gonzaga -4½, but the total has dipped recently from 159½ to 158½. BetMGM confirmed two opposing bets on the total. One person bet $330,000 bet to win $300,000 on over 159½; another bet the same amount on under 159½.

5:55 p.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for tonight’s game:

— No. 1 Gonzaga (-4½, 158½, -195) vs. No. 1 Baylor (+185), 6:20 p.m. (line from Westgate)

Team totals: Gonzaga 81½, Baylor 77½.

Alternate lines: Gonzaga -19½ (+750), -15½ (+450), -10½ (+230), -7½ (+140); Baylor -12½ (+750), -9½ (+600), -5½ (+400), -3½ (+270).

Alternate totals: Over 166½ (+190), under 152½ (+210).

General props: First made field goal will be (2-pointer -280/3-pointer +235), will any player score 20 or more points (yes -210/no +180), total 3-pointers made 16 (under -120), largest lead by either team 13½ points, will the game go to overtime (no -2,000/yes +1,000), first to score five points (Gonzaga -115/Baylor -105), first to score 10 points (Gonzaga -120/Baylor +100), first to score 15 points (Gonzaga -135/Baylor +115), first to score 20 points (Gonzaga -140/Baylor +120).

Gonzaga props: Drew Timme 21½ points (under -120), 6½ rebounds (over -130), 3½ assists, 3½ free throws made (over -140); Corey Kispert 16½ points (over -130), 5½ rebounds (under -130), 1½ assists (over -140), 2½ free throws made (over -150), 2½ 3-pointers (over -130); Jalen Suggs 14½ points (over -120), 5½ rebounds, 4½ assists (over -150), 2½ free throws made (over -130); Joel Ayayi 12½ points (over -130), 6½ rebounds (over -120), 2½ assists (under -140), 1½ free throws made (over -140); Andrew Nembhard 9½ points (over -120), 2½ rebounds (under -130), 4½ assists (over -130), 1½ free throws made.

Baylor props: MaCio Teague 15½ points, 3½ rebounds (over -140), 1½ assists (over -165), 2½ free throws made (under -150); Jared Butler 15½ points (over -120), 3½ rebounds, 4½ assists (under -140), 2½ free throws made (under -120); Davion Mitchell 13½ points (over -120), 2½ rebounds (under -130), 5½ assists, 1½ free throws made (under -120); Adam Flagler 8½ points (under -130), 2½ rebounds (under -120), 1½ free throws made (over -120); Matthew Mayer 8½ points (over -130), 3½ rebounds (over -130); Mark Vital 4½ points; Flo Thamba 3½ points (over -125); Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua 5½ points (over -130).

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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