MARCH MADNESS BAD BEATS BLOG: Favorites finally show strength
The Pac-12’s performance has been one of the surprises of the NCAA Tournament so farx.
The conference’s five entrants are undefeated in the Big Dance, and all have a reasonable shot to advance to the Sweet 16. Oregon State already clinched a berth Sunday. Southern California and UCLA are favored to join the Beavers on Monday, and Colorado is only a slight underdog to Florida State. Oregon has the toughest test, against No. 2 seed Iowa.
No. 1 seeds Gonzaga and Michigan will also try to claim their spots in the Sweet 16.
We’ll be following the action from all the NCAA Tournament games. Refresh this blog throughout the day to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, props, halftime bets and much more.
UPDATES
9:05 p.m.: That’s it for today. After two big days for underdogs, favorites struck back Monday, going 6-1 against the spread, with Florida State winning at pick’em after the Seminoles were favored leading up to the game. Oregon scored the lone outright upset at +185 against Iowa. Totals went 5-3 to the over.
Betting results for every game today — full game, first half and second half — are listed at the bottom of this story.
Thanks for reading. We’ll be back Saturday for the Sweet 16.
8:55 p.m.: Here are the Sweet 16 betting lines at the Westgate:
SATURDAY
South Region
— No. 1 Baylor (-6½, 139, -260) vs. No. 5 Villanova (+220)
— No. 3 Arkansas (-11½, 159½, -700) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (+500)
Midwest Region
— No. 8 Loyola-Chicago (-6½, 126, -275) vs. No. 12 Oregon State (+235)
— No. 2 Houston (-6, 140, -265) vs. No. 11 Syracuse (+225)
SUNDAY
(No money lines posted yet)
West Region
— No. 1 Gonzaga (-13½, 158½) vs. No. 5 Creighton
— No. 6 Southern California (PK, 138½) vs. No. 7 Oregon
East Region
— No. 1 Michigan (-3, 145½) vs. No. 4 Florida State
— No. 2 Alabama (-5, 144) vs. No. 11 UCLA
8:48 p.m.: USC was +410 to win by 11 or more. The Trojans also cover the alternate line of -7½ at +240. Largest lead over 13½ points cashed in the first half. USC’s Evan Mobley scored 10 points to go under his prop total of 16½. Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji scored eights points to go under his prop of 15.
8:45 p.m.: FINAL: Southern California 85, Kansas 51. The No. 6 Trojans dominate as 1½-point favorites, -125 ML against the No. 3 Jayhawks. The game goes over 135½ on two free throws with 46.2 seconds left. USC will face No. 7 Oregon in the Sweet 16. USC goes over its team total of 67½; Kansas stays under 66½.
8:30 p.m.: Some “to make the Sweet 16” prop results:
— Alabama (yes, -150)
— Arkansas (yes, +115)
— Florida State (yes, -135)
— Houston (yes, -300)
— Iowa (no, +225)
— Ohio State (no, +180)
— Oklahoma State (no, -150)
— Purdue (no, -110)
— San Diego State (no, -200)
— Tennessee (no, -130)
— Texas Tech (no, -170)
— Villanova (yes, +180)
— Virginia (no, -125)
— West Virginia (no, -125)
8:16 p.m.: USC remains in cruise control. The Trojans lead Kansas 58-37 with 11:57 left in the second half and are -100,000 on the live line (Kansas +3,000), spread -17½, total 138½.
7:43 p.m.: Alabama was +180 to win by 11 or more. The Crimson Tide also cover the alternate line of -12½ at +260. The largest lead of the game was over 14 points. Alabama’s Herbert Jones scores six points to go under his prop total of 12. Maryland’s Eric Ayala also goes under his prop of 16½ with 13.
7:42 p.m.: FINAL: Alabama 96, Maryland 77. The No. 2 seed Crimson Tide cruise to the cover as 6½-point favorites, -280 ML against the No. 10 Terrapins. The game sails over 138½. Alabama will face No. 11 UCLA in the Sweet 16. Both teams go over their team totals: Alabama 72½, Maryland 67½.
7:37 p.m.: Second-half line: Kansas -3, total 72.
7:35 p.m.: HALFTIME: USC 40, Kansas 21. First-half winners: USC -½, under 63.
7:15 p.m.: USC has started well against Kansas. The Trojans lead 18-10 with 7:21 left in the first half. USC is -310 on the live line (Kansas +240), spread -6½, total 123½.
7:14 p.m.: Alabama is cruising toward the cover as a 6½-point favorite against Maryland. The Crimson Tide lead 72-51 with 10:59 left in the second half and are -19½ on the live spread, total 163½ (live line not available).
6:59 p.m.: Florida State was +360 to win by 11 or more points. The Seminoles also cover the alternate line of -7½ at +220. Florida State’s M.J. Walker scores only seven points to go under his prop total of 13½. Colorado’s McKinley Wright also goes under his total of 15½ with 10 points.
6:58 p.m.: Colorado was the first Pac-12 team to lose in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA have already advanced to the Sweet 16, and Southern California is trying to punch its ticket right now against Kansas.
6:57 p.m.: FINAL: Florida State 71, Colorado 53. The No. 4 Seminoles pull away to cover in a pick’em game, -110 ML against the No. 5 Buffaloes. The game stays under 141½. Florida State will face No. 1 Michigan in the Sweet 16. The Seminoles go over their team total of 70½; the Buffaloes stay well under 69½.
6:41 p.m.: The last game of the night is about to tip off:
— No. 3 Kansas (+105) vs. No. 6 Southern California (-1½, 135½, -125), 6:45 p.m.
6:36 p.m.: Second-half line: Alabama -1½, total 75.
6:34 p.m.: HALFTIME: Alabama 46, Maryland 38. First-half winners: Alabama -3½, over 64½.
6:28 p.m.: The Pac-12 could be headed to its first loss of the tournament. Florida State leads Colorado 47-38 with 7:55 left in the second half, and the Seminoles are -1,200 on the live line (Buffaloes +680), spread -8½, total 116½.
6:23 p.m.: The largest lead of Michigan-LSU stayed under 15 points. Michigan’s Franz Wagner scored 15 points to just go over his prop total of 14. LSU’s Cameron Thomas blew away his prop of 20 with 30 points.
6:20 p.m.: FINAL: Michigan 86, LSU 78. The No. 1 seed Wolverines rally from multiple deficits to cover as 4½-point favorites, -190 ML against the No. 8 Tigers. The game goes over 147. Michigan will face the winner of No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 Colorado in the Sweet 16. Both teams go over their team totals: Michigan 76½, LSU 71½.
6:05 p.m.: Michigan is pulling away. The Wolverines lead LSU 79-70 with 3:27 left in the second half and are -20,000 on the live line (Tigers +3,000), spread -9½.
5:50 p.m.: Michigan fights back. The Wolverines take a 67-63 lead over LSU with 8:36 left in the second half. Michigan is -500 on the live line (LSU +360), spread -5½, total 168½.
5:46 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:
— No. 2 Alabama (-6½, 138½, -280) vs. No. 10 Maryland (+240), 5:50 p.m.
5:39 p.m.: LSU leads Michigan 58-55 with 11:53 left in the second half. The Tigers are -158 on the live line (Wolverines +128), spread -2½, total 162½.
5:38 p.m.: Second-half line: Colorado -1, total 73½.
5:36 p.m.: HALFTIME: Florida State 24, Colorado 20. First-half winners: Florida State PK, under 65½.
5:29 p.m.: LSU is out to a 51-45 lead over Michigan with 15:42 left in the second half. The Tigers are -205 on the live line (Wolverines +164), spread -3½, total 158½.
5:15 p.m.: Creighton was +195 to win by 11 or more. The Bluejays also cover the alternate line of -12½ at +250. The largest lead was over 14½ points. Creighton’s Marcus Zegarowski scored 20 points to go over his prop total of 17½. Ohio’s Jason Preston had an awful day with four points, way under his prop of 15½.
5:13 p.m.: FINAL: Creighton 72, Ohio 58. The No. 5 Bluejays cover as 5½-point favorites, -230 ML against the No. 13 Bobcats. The total stays well under 150. Creighton will face No. 1 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Both teams stay under their team totals: Creighton 76½, Ohio 71½.
5:01 p.m.: Second-half line: Michigan -2½, total 80½.
4:59 p.m.: HALFTIME: Michigan 43, LSU 42. First-half winners: LSU +2½, over 68½. LSU hit a shot in the final seconds to save the first-half cover after blowing an early lead.
4:46 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:
— No. 4 Florida State (PK, 141½, -110) vs. No. 5 Colorado (-110), 4:45 p.m.
4:36 p.m.: LSU is still in control. The Tigers lead Michigan 29-21 with 7:26 left in the first half and are -172 on the live line (Wolverines +140), spread -3½, total 156½.
4:23 p.m.: LSU is out to a fast start. The Tigers lead 19-12 with 12:13 left in the first half. LSU won the race to 10 points at +110 and the race to 15 at +120. The Tigers are -124 on the live line (Michigan +102), spread -1½, total 153½.
4:17 p.m.: UCLA was +210 to win by 11 or more. The Bruins also cover the alternate line of -12½ at +295. Largest lead of the game goes over 14. UCLA’s Johnny Juzang scored 17 points to go over his prop total of 15½. Abilene Christian’s Kolton Kohl goes under 11½ with eight points.
4:14 p.m.: FINAL: UCLA 67, Abilene Christian 47. The No. 11 seed Bruins roll to the cover as 5½-point favorites, -250 ML against the No. 14 Wildcats. The game stays under 132½. UCLA will face the winner of No. 2 Alabama and No. 10 Maryland in the Sweet 16. Both teams stay under their team totals: UCLA 68½, Abilene Christian 63½.
4:06 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:
— No. 1 Michigan (-4½, 147, -190) vs. No. 8 LSU (+170), 4:10 p.m.
3:58 p.m.: Second-half line: Ohio -1½, total 79.
3:56 p.m.: HALFTIME: Creighton 39, Ohio 24. First-half winners: Creighton -3, under 70½.
3:49 p.m.: Creighton is building a lead. The Bluejays are up 31-22 on Ohio with 3:19 left in the first half. Creighton is -750 on the live line (Bobcats +490), spread -9½, total 144½.
3:37 p.m.: UCLA is blowing out Abilene Christian, leading 45-22 with 15:11 left in the second half. The prop for biggest lead by either team over 14 has cashed easily. Abilene Christrian pulled off a stunning upset of Texas, but it appears the Wildcats’ Cinderella run will end here.
3:34 p.m.: Creighton and Ohio are tied at 19 with 7:39 left in the first half. Creighton is -192 on the live line (Ohio +154), spread -3½, total 146½.
3:29 p.m.: UCLA opens the second half on an 8-0 run to take a 39-21 lead with 16:37 to go. The Bruins are -10,000 on the live line (Abilene Christian +2,500), spread -16½, total 116½.
3:17 p.m.: Ohio leads Creighton 5-4 with 15:47 left in the first half. Creighton is -205 on the live line (Ohio +164), spread -3½, total 146½.
3:06 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:
— No. 5 Creighton (-5½, 150, -230) vs. No. 13 Ohio (+195), 3:10 p.m.
3:05 p.m.: Second-half line: UCLA -1, total 69½.
3:03 p.m.: HALFTIME: UCLA 31, Abilene Christian 21. First-half winners: UCLA -3, under 61.
2:53 p.m.: UCLA leads 26-16 with 3:43 left in the first half. The Bruins are -650 on the live line (Abilene Christian +440), spread -9½, total 124½.
2:41 p.m.: UCLA is building a lead, and Abilene Christian has gone cold. The Bruins lead 24-12 with 7:25 left in the first half and are -1,500 on the live line (Wildcats +790), spread -12½, total 129½.
2:31 p.m.: UCLA leads 16-12 with 11:58 left in the first half. UCLA won the race to 15 at -135, but Abilene Christian won the race to 10 at +105. UCLA is -420 on the live line (Abilene +310), spread -7½, total 138½.
2:23 p.m.: UCLA leads Abilene Christian 8-7 with 15:52 left in the first half. UCLA is -265 on the live line (Abilene +210), spread -5½, total 134½.
2:12 p.m.: The next game is about to tip off:
— No. 11 UCLA (-5½, 132½, -250) vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian (+210), 2:15 p.m.
2:05 p.m.: Wrapping up Gonzaga-Oklahoma: Gonzaga was -230 to win by 11 or more. Largest lead by either team stays under 20½. Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert scores 16 points to stay under his prop total of 19; Oklahoma’s Austin Reaves scores 27 to sail over his prop of 19½.
1:57 p.m.: The higher seed won every game in the first day of the women’s NCAA Tournament on Sunday — and only four were decided by single digits — but there have been two upsets so far today. No. 13 seed Wright State (+11½, +550) defeated No. 4 Arkansas 66-62, and No. 11 seed BYU (+8, +330) defeated Rutgers 69-66. And No. 12 Belmont (+8½, +350) is leading No. 5 Gonzaga 33-32 at halftime.
1:50 p.m.: There was plenty of spread drama late. Gonzaga backers benefited from a late flagrant foul that gave the Bulldogs two free throws and the ball. Then, leading by 16, Gonzaga missed a shot but got the offensive rebound with six seconds left and dribbled out the clock.
1:47 p.m.: FINAL: Gonzaga 87, Oklahoma 71. The No. 1 Bulldogs extend their lead in the final minutes to cover as 15½-point favorites, -1,800 ML against the No. 8 Sooners. The game also slips over 156 in the final minutes. Gonzaga will face the winner of No. 5 Creighton and No. 13 Ohio in the Sweet 16. Both teams just went over their team totals: Gonzaga 84½, Oklahoma 69½.
1:36 p.m.: Oklahoma is headed toward the cover at least. Gonzaga leads 79-70 with 2:03 to play. The total of 156 is also in doubt.
1:21 p.m.: Gonzaga will likely win this game, but the spread of 14½ to 15½ remains in doubt. The Bulldogs are -13½ on the live spread, total 159½.
1:09 p.m.: Gonzaga leads Oklahoma 66-51 with 11:06 left in the second half. The Bulldogs are -17½ on the live spread, total 162½ (no line line available).
12:58 p.m.: Gonzaga is extending its advantage. The Bulldogs lead Oklahoma 55-39 with 15:26 left in the second half. Gonzaga is -100,000 on the live line (Sooners +3,000), spread -20½, total 156½.
12:50 p.m.: The second half of Gonzaga-Oklahoma is underway.
12:30 p.m.: Second-half line: Gonzaga -6, total 82.
12:28 p.m.: HALFTIME: Gonzaga 46, Oklahoma 34. First-half winners: Gonzaga -9½, over 74½.
12:09 p.m.: Gonzaga has moved out to a 33-28 lead on Oklahoma with 5:50 left in the first half. The Bulldogs are -4,500 on the live line (Sooners +1,300), spread -14½, total 166½.
11:56 a.m.: Oklahoma continues to hang with Gonzaga. The Sooners lead 21-19 with 11:55 left in the first half. Gonzaga is -1,300 on the live line (Sooners +730), spread -11½, total 168½.
11:47 a.m.: Oklahoma starts well and wins the race to 10 at +195 and the race to 15 at +240, leading Gonzaga 16-12 with 15:43 left in the first half. Gonzaga is still -1,200 on the live line (Oklahoma +680), spread -11½, total 170½.
11:40 a.m.: BetMGM reported several six-figure bets on today’s games:
— $360,000 to win $300,000 on Kansas +2
— $330,000 to win $300,000 on Alabama -5
— $224,400 to win $204,000 on Abilene Christian +5
— $168,300 to win $153,000 on Florida State -1
— $165,000 to win $150,000 on Oregon +5
Big bets for Monday's tourney games (@BetMGM)
• $360K to win $300K on Kansas +2
• $330K to win $300K on Alabama -5
• $224,400 to win $204K on Abilene Christian +5
• $168,300 to win $153K on Florida State -1
• $165K to win $150K on Oregon +5— John Ewing (@johnewing) March 22, 2021
11:36 a.m.: The next game is about to tip off:
— No. 1 Gonzaga (-15½, 156, -1,800) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (+950), 11:40 a.m.
11:24 a.m.: Oregon was +850 to win by 11 or more. The Ducks also cover the alternate line of -2½ (+220). Oregon’s Eugene Omoruyi scores 17 points to just go over his prop total of 15. Iowa’s Luka Garza smashes his prop of 23½ with 36 points in the loss.
11:14 a.m.: FINAL: Oregon 95, Iowa 80. The No. 7 seed Ducks roll to victory as 5-point underdogs, +185 ML against the No. 2 Hawkeyes. The game cruises over 150. Oregon will face the winner of No. 3 Kansas and No. 6 Southern California in the Sweet 16. Both teams go over their team totals: Oregon 72½, Iowa 76½.
10:57 a.m.: No late Iowa run. Oregon leads 84-66 with 6:42 left in the second half. The Ducks are -100,000 on the live line (Hawkeyes +3,000), spread -15½, total 178½.
10:46 a.m.: Another Big Ten team is about to bite the dust. Oregon leads Iowa 75-57 with 11:50 left in the second half. The Ducks are -5,000 on the live line (Iowa +1,500), spread -14½, total 182½.
10:37 a.m.: Oregon remains in control. The Ducks lead Iowa 67-57 with 14:40 left in the second half and are -375 on the live line (Hawkeyes +285), spread -6½, total 185½.
10:30 a.m.: Oregon cashes the prop for largest lead by any team over 14½ points, leading 67-51 with 17:44 left in the second half.
10:07 a.m.: Oregon’s Eugene Omoruyi and Iowa’s Luka Garza are well on their way to hitting their points props — not surprising in this high-scoring game. Omoruyi has 10 points (prop total 15), and Garza already has 22 (prop 23½).
10:02 a.m.: Second-half line: Iowa -5½, total 82.
10 a.m.: HALFTIME: Oregon 56, Iowa 46. First-half winners: Oregon +2½, over 71½, Oregon +150 ML.
9:39 a.m.: It’s a tight offensive showcase in the first half. Iowa and Oregon are tied at 36 with 6:16 left in the first half. Iowa is -180 on the live line (Oregon +146), spread -3½, 178½.
9:27 a.m.: Oregon leads 21-19 with 11:42 left in the first half. Iowa is -172 on the live line (Oregon +140), spread -3½, total 164½.
9:23 a.m.: Oregon also wins the race to 15 at +120, leading 17-13.
9:19 a.m.: Oregon hits the prop on the first team to score 10 points at +105 and leads Iowa 12-11 with 14:51 left in the first half. Iowa is -220 on the live line (Ducks +176), spread -4½, total 157½.
9:05 a.m.: The first game is about to tip off:
— No. 2 Iowa (-5, 150, -215) vs. No. 7 Oregon (+185), 9:10 a.m.
9 a.m.: Here are the biggest line moves this morning:
Iowa-Oregon total from 147½ to 150
UCLA-Abilene Christian total from 132 to 133
8:45 a.m.: Here’s today’s schedule, listed by region:
WEST REGION
— No. 7 Oregon 95, No. 2 Iowa 80
Full-game winners: Oregon +5, over 150, Oregon +185 ML
First-half winners: Oregon +2½, over 71½ (Oregon 56-46)
Second-half winners: Oregon +5½, under 82 (Oregon 39-34)
— No. 1 Gonzaga 87, No. 8 Oklahoma 71
Full-game winners: Gonzaga -15½, over 156, Gonzaga -1,800 ML
First-half winners: Gonzaga -9½, over 74½ (Gonzaga 46-34)
Second-half winners: Oklahoma +6, under 82 (Gonzaga 41-37)
— No. 5 Creighton 72, No. 13 Ohio 58
Full-game winners: Creighton -5½, under 150, Creighton -230 ML
First-half winners: Creighton -3, under 70½ (Creighton 39-24)
Second-half winners: Creighton +1½, under 79 (Ohio 34-33)
— No. 6 Southern California 85, No. 3 Kansas 51
Full-game winners: USC -1½, over 135½, USC -125 ML
First-half winners: USC -½, under 63 (USC 40-21)
Second-half winners: USC +3, over 72 (USC 45-30)
EAST REGION
— No. 11 UCLA 67, No. 14 Abilene Christian 47
Full-game winners: UCLA -5½, under 132½, UCLA -250 ML
First-half winners: UCLA -3, under 61 (UCLA 31-21)
Second-half winners: UCLA -1, under 69½ (UCLA 36-26)
— No. 1 Michigan 86, No. 8 LSU 78
Full-game winners: Michigan -4½, over 147, Michigan -190 ML
First-half winners: LSU +2½, over 68½ (Michigan 43-42)
Second-half winners: Michigan -2½, under 80½ (Michigan 43-36)
— No. 4 Florida State 71, No. 5 Colorado 53
Full-game winners: Florida State PK, under 141½, Florida State -110 ML
First-half winners: Florida State PK, under 65½ (Florida State 24-20)
Second-half winners: Florida State +1, over 73½ (Florida State 47-33)
— No. 2 Alabama 96, No. 10 Maryland 77
Full-game winners: Alabama -6½, over 138½, Alabama -280 ML
First-half winners: Alabama -3½, over 64½ (Alabama 46-38)
Second-half winners: Alabama -1½, over 75 (Alabama 50-39)
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.