NASCAR’s new parity could produce biggest Las Vegas long shot
NASCAR’s Next Gen car appears to be serving its purpose.
Normally, handicapper Micah Roberts would be focusing on a small number of drivers as possible winners at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. But that’s not the case for Sunday’s Cup Series Pennzoil 400.
“There are legitimately 28 drivers that can win the race,” Roberts said. “It’s never been that way. This is usually a track with elite teams, elite drivers winning.”
Roberts, an analyst for SportsLine.com, said there’s a real possibility that Sunday’s race could produce the longest shot ever to win at Las Vegas. Roberts said he believes that Matt Kenseth holds the record at 20-1 for one of his victories here.
Kyle Larson is the +350 favorite at the Westgate SuperBook for the Pennzoil 400. Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Joey Logano are 7-1; Chase Elliott is 8-1; and Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick are 14-1.
The Next Gen car was designed to help level the playing field between NASCAR’s haves and have-nots by providing similar equipment for every team.
That parity has shown in the results of the first two races, as only one driver finished in the top 10 at the Daytona 500 and last week’s Wise Power 400 in Fontana, California. (Aric Almirola was fifth at Daytona and sixth at Fontana.)
So, that presents a question for Roberts as a bettor.
“When everything is equal, where’s my edge?” he said.
Roberts’ solution is to look further down the betting board to Erik Jones (30-1) and Austin Dillon (40-1). If a larger number of drivers can win, don’t take someone with a short price, he said.
Dillon was second at Fontana, and Jones was third. Larson won, but “he didn’t have the best car,” Roberts said.
Dillon has been part of a strong performance by Richard Childress Racing so far, including Reddick, who was leading at Fontana when he suffered a flat tire. Dillon’s 40-1 price is much more attractive than Reddick’s 14-1, but both should be contenders, Roberts said.
Jones has given Richard Petty’s team unlikely early success.
“The Petty and Childress cars are looking like the best out there, and that’s not something we’ve seen,” Roberts said.
Roberts said the Next Gen car has provided excitement, but as a bettor, he would like a little more certainty.
“It’s a crapshoot until we find an edge or an angle,” he said. “But I like it. I like winning money more, but I do like parity.”
Las Vegan Kyle Busch is 30-1, and Kurt Busch is 40-1.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.