NFC team-by-team betting breakdown: Contender or pretender?

Dumond analyzes all 16 NFC teams, designating each squad as a contender or pretender. A contender is expected to vie for a playoff spot, and a pretender is not. (Odds to win Super Bowl at Westgate SuperBook in parentheses:)

NFC East

— Dallas Cowboys (20-1): Haven’t we seen this movie before? That’s the question Cowboys fans are asking themselves after a third straight 12-win regular season and early playoff exit. It’s now been 28 years since this iconic franchise has been to an NFC championship game and won the Super Bowl. If Dallas delivers another sequel of this bad movie this season, owner Jerry Jones may finally fire coach Mike McCarthy and ship quarterback Dak Prescott out of Big D. That said, the Cowboys have enough talent to compete for the NFC East title. Contender.

— New York Giants (100-1): Heading into last year, there was optimism for the Giants, who were coming off their first winning season and playoff appearance since 2016 under NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll. However, NFL stands for Not For Long, and the Giants regressed, going 6-11. Quarterback Daniel Jones started only six games after signing a four-year contract extension. He threw two touchdown passes and six interceptions as New York went 1-5. Oddsmakers don’t expect the Giants to improve much this season, as their win total is 6½. Pretender.

— Philadelphia Eagles (16-1): The Eagles started 10-1 last season before falling apart down the stretch. They went 1-5 in their final six games to cede the NFC East crown to the Cowboys before getting blown out by the Buccaneers in their wild-card game. The fall guys were offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and defensive coordinator Sean Desai. Their two very capable replacements are offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Quarterback Jalen Hurts set career highs in passing yards (3,858) and touchdown passes (23), but also threw a career-high 15 interceptions. The Eagles should compete for the NFC East title. Contender.

— Washington Commanders (100-1): Ron Rivera was fired as coach after failing to produce a winning record in four seasons in Washington. Last season was especially horrendous as the Commanders finished 4-13 and were last in the NFL in turnover differential (-14), scoring defense (30.5 points per game allowed) and point differential (-189). Quarterback Sam Howell threw a league-high 21 interceptions. New coach Dan Quinn has a complete rebuild on his hands. Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, will be Washington’s eighth Week 1 starting quarterback in as many years. Pretender.

NFC North

— Chicago Bears (30-1): For the third time in the last eight NFL drafts, the Bears selected a quarterback in the first round. They’re hoping No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is the charm. He’s been described as a generational talent, so the excitement level is off the charts that Chicago just might have gotten it right this time after trading former first-round pick Justin Fields to the Steelers. The Bears also drafted wideout Rome Odunze, a Bishop Gorman product, in the first round. He’ll join forces with veteran receivers D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen to give Chicago a dangerous passing attack. The Bears, with a season win total of 9, should be much improved and in the mix for the NFC North title. Contender.

— Detroit Lions (10-1): Last year at this time, the Lions were the trendy pick to be a Super Bowl contender. Unlike a lot of preseason predictions, that one happened to be right. Detroit has made a steady climb under coach Dan Campbell, from 3-13-1 in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022 to 12-5 and their first NFC North title in 30 years last season. The Lions earned their first two playoff victories since 1991 before blowing a 24-7 halftime lead in a 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship. Detroit’s high-powered offense should continue to thrive behind quarterback Jared Goff, who was second in the NFL in passing yards (4,575) last season. The Lions drafted cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw with their first two picks to bolster their defense. After coming so close to punching their first ticket to the Super Bowl, the Lions are poised to make another deep playoff run. Super Bowl Contender.

— Green Bay Packers (16-1): Last season, for the first time since 1993, the Packers had a Week 1 starting quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. Quarterback Jordan Love had some early struggles, but he played at a high level down the stretch as Green Bay won seven of its last 10 games to earn a playoff spot. The Packers beat the Cowboys on the road in their wild-card game before falling short to the 49ers in a 24-21 loss in the divisional round. Expect Love to continue his stellar play this season. Contender.

— Minnesota Vikings (100-1): The Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games in 2022 en route to a 13-4 record and the NFC North title. As expected, Minnesota regressed last season, going 7-10 with eight losses by seven points or less. The Vikings parted ways with quarterback Kirk Cousins and drafted Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. But McCarthy will miss the season after surgery on his torn right meniscus. Quarterback Sam Darnold and his 21-35 NFL career record as a starter will be behind center in Week 1. For that reason alone … Pretender.

NFC South

— Atlanta Falcons (40-1): Head-scratching. That describes two of the most important offseason moves made by the Falcons. After coach Arthur Smith was fired following Atlanta’s third straight 7-10 season, the Falcons chose Raheem Morris and his 21-38 NFL career coaching record over Bill Belichick, whose resume is second to none. Then, after Atlanta signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to a $180 million, four-year contract, it spent its No. 8 overall draft pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Even with the questionable moves, the Falcons have enough talent to compete for the NFC South title. Contender.

— Carolina Panthers (300-1): Two words used to describe NFL teams are dynasty and dysfunction. The former applies to the Chiefs, and the latter applies to the Panthers. Carolina went 2-15 last season and has suffered six straight losing seasons. For the third time in the last five years, the Panthers fired their coach during the season, this time giving Frank Reich his pink slip after only 11 games. Now they have to pay Reich $36 million not to coach. The quarterback play of 2023 No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young was so bad that buyer’s remorse has already set in and the Panthers are reviewing North Carolina’s lemon laws. Rookie coach Dave Canales has inherited a dumpster fire. Pretender.

— New Orleans Saints (100-1): The Saints improved from 7-10 to 9-8 in coach Dennis Allen’s second year in New Orleans, which missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Quarterback Derek Carr’s first season in the Big Easy was uneven, as he went from being booed at times for his poor play to playing his best football of the year down the stretch as New Orleans won four of its final five games. The Saints parted ways with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael after 18 seasons, and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, former passing-game specialist for the 49ers. New Orleans hopes the change will result in better play from Carr and reinvigorate its rushing attack with running back Alvin Kamara. Look for the Saints to be in the mix for the NFC South title. Contender.

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (80-1): The Bucs won five of their final six games last season to capture their third consecutive NFC South crown. Quarterback Baker Mayfield had the impossible task of replacing Tom Brady. He responded with a career year, recording career highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdown passes (28). Tampa Bay beat the Eagles 32-9 in their wild-card game before falling short to the Lions in the divisional round. The Bucs re-signed Mayfield, wideout Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David, and should once again compete for the NFC South championship. Contender.

NFC West

— Arizona Cardinals (100-1): The Cardinals went 4-13 last season under rookie coach Jonathan Gannon, but the bar has been set a bit higher this year with a win total of 7. Reasons for optimism include quarterback Kyler Murray’s return to health after starting only eight games last season, and the arrival of rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. Look for the Cardinals to improve this season, just not enough. Pretender.

— Los Angeles Rams (30-1): The Rams have been like a yo-yo the past three years, going up, down and up again. They won the 2022 Super Bowl, fell to 5-12, then rebounded with a 10-7 record and playoff berth last season. The Rams are a coin flip to have a winning record this season, as their win total is 8½. Future Hall of Fame defensive end Aaron Donald retired, but coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford are back, along with one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Contender.

— San Francisco 49ers (5-1): The 49ers had their chances in the Super Bowl, squandering a double-digit lead in regulation and a three-point lead in overtime in their 25-22 loss to the Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. San Francisco will try to avoid the dreaded “Super Bowl loser” jinx, as the 2018 Patriots are the only team since 1994 to make it back to the Super Bowl the season after losing it. The 49ers have the talent to make another Super Bowl run with nine Pro Bowlers returning, led by reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey. Super Bowl contender.

— Seattle Seahawks (60-1): Pete Carroll is gone after a 14-year run as Seahawks coach that that included five NFC West crowns, two NFC titles and the only Super Bowl championship in franchise history. New rookie coach Mike MacDonald has his work cut out for him in a tough division. Quarterback Geno Smith took a step back last year, and the Seahawks will take a step back this season. Pretender.