NFL awards betting comes down to narrative
For sportsbooks, taking action on league award winners is different from booking a game or even a normal futures market.
There is no objective criteria. Bookmakers or bettors might believe a player should win an award, but it doesn’t mean he will. Handicapping the narrative that will capture voters’ minds is the key skill.
“Say it’s real close between a few players,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Whoever has the best story is going to win.”
That fact has been built into the markets for several NFL awards, starting with The Associated Press Coach of the Year, with New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick the +850 favorite at William Hill.
For all his success, Belichick has won Coach of the Year only three times, and he had to go 14-2 or better each time to do it.
That likely won’t be the case this year. With the departure of six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots’ expectations have been lowered. If New England manages to maintain its standard of excellence, Belichick will get most of the credit.
Caesars Entertainment director of trading Jeff Davis is bearish on the Patriots’ prospects, but still has Belichick as the 8-1 favorite.
“While I don’t like the Patriots roster this year at all, (Belichick) is still the best ever,” Davis said via email. “If he can get this roster to win 11 games against this schedule, he is the likely winner.”
Bogdanovich and Davis agreed that the coaches to avoid were the ones on teams favored to win the title, because it’s so difficult for them to beat expectations, like Belichick during this Patriots dynasty.
Davis said Caesars already had taken bets on coaches of the top teams from last season, including Kansas City’s Andy Reid, San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan and Baltimore’s John Harbaugh.
They “will likely have to go 16-0 to win the award, so we’re happy with the action,” Davis said.
Rookie of the year
No. 1 overall draft pick Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals is favored to take The Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He plays the right position and will likely have the opportunity to start immediately, bookmakers said.
The Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, who led Louisiana State to the national championship last season, ranges from +250 to +300 across the market.
Circa Sports sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said Burrow certainly deserves to be favored.
“He obviously has the ability to touch the ball and influence the game more than anyone else,” he said. “… And I think the Bengals do have a good potential supporting cast around him.”
Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the second choice at +550 at Circa and Caesars and +700 at William Hill, given his opportunity to put up numbers in a high-powered offense, bookmakers said.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would be the second choice if he were definitely starting in Week 1, bookmakers said, but for now he’s the third choice at 8-1 at Circa and 10-1 at Caesars and William Hill.
Further down the board, bookmakers pointed to running backs and wide receivers who could make a quick impact — as long as they get touches.
“You can’t be the fourth receiver (on a team) and have a chance to win. You can’t be the second running back,” Bennett said. “You have to be on the field for 75 percent or more of the snaps.”
Raider rookie receiver Henry Ruggs is potentially in that group, ranging from 12-1 at William Hill to 20-1 at Circa.
Comeback player
William Hill also has odds up for Comeback Player of the Year, with Tampa Bay tight end Rob Gronkowski and Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger the co-favorites at +350.
However, Bogdanovich said Gronkowski’s odds reflect his “big name” more than his prospects.
“I just don’t see how he’s going to make a big impact,” Bogdanovich said.
He favors players coming back from injury, including Roethlisberger and Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (+600).
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.