NFL best bets: Handicappers try to extend 11-0-1 ATS streak
The Browns and Commanders are seemingly headed in opposite directions.
Cleveland has lost and failed to cover three of its four games this season, all as favorites. Washington, on the other hand, has won three straight behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
But three-time Westgate SuperContest top-15 finisher “Dr. Alan” Dumond and VSiN.com handicapper Dave Tuley expect the Browns to bounce back this week against the Commanders.
They made Cleveland their NFL best bet as a 3½-point road underdog over Washington.
“I won with my best bet on the Commanders last week, but we bet numbers not teams,” said Tuley, who is 14-6 ATS in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge. “The Browns were -3 on the advance line at the Westgate SuperBook and now it’s flipped all the way to the Commanders -(3½). Really?
“Granted, Jayden Daniels was impressive in the 42-14 rout of the Cardinals and the Browns suffered an ugly 20-16 loss at the Raiders, but oddsmakers and the betting public have over-adjusted with this point spread and I’ll gladly take the points.”
Dumond, tied for second place in the $5,000-entry SuperContest Gold at 14-5-1 ATS, also believes the line has been overinflated. He thinks it’s mostly because of the numbers put up by Daniels, who leads the league in completion percentage (82.1).
“This has caused all the line value for this game to be with the Browns. This game is a classic buy low on the Browns and sell high on the Commanders,” Dumond said. “I feel the Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels are a fat and happy 3-1 team that is due to come down, and the Browns are a desperate and motivated 1-3 team that is due to come up.”
Here are four more NFL best bets which, including picks on Raiders games, are 11-0-1 ATS the last two weeks (home team in CAPS):
Vikings-Jets under 40½
Three-time RJ Challenge champion Doug Fitz is 10-0 ATS the last two weeks and leads the contest with a 16-4 ATS mark. The Cleveland native also likes the Browns, but made the Vikings-Jets under in Sunday’s 6:30 a.m. game in London his best bet.
“The Vikings are 1-3 to the under and the Jets are 1-2-1 to the under. Last year, five games were played in Europe and all five went under. Prior to that, seven of the last 10 European games went under,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “Neither team scores many points and both defenses are solid. I believe this recent under trend relates to the extensive travel, unfamiliar stadiums and extreme time zone difference.”
Jets (+2½) over Vikings
SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay, 13-5-2 ATS in the RJ Challenge, is banking on New York to hand Minnesota (4-0, 4-0 ATS) its first loss.
“Two teams, two states of mind,” Kornegay said. “Vikings coming off a great win over the rival Packers. The Jets have some red behinds after that embarrassing loss to Denver. I’ll take the team that’s a little hot going into this week’s first London game.”
Cardinals (+7½) over 49ERS
Ed Salmons said he and fellow SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman like Arizona to redeem itself at San Francisco.
“We made that line 6½ last week. The Cardinals played an awful game and now the game’s 7½,” Salmons said. “The Cardinals will come to play after that embarrassment.”
BEARS (-3½) over Panthers
Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw likes the Bears to win and cover their second straight game.
“Carolina is getting a little bit too much respect now. I think the Bears will handle them,” Whitelaw said. “Their defense is playing pretty well. They’re coming off a win at home.
“Carolina, because of (Hurricane Helene), has other issues going on that are more important than football. So some distractions over there.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.