NFL betting breakdown: Week 11
NFL BREAKDOWN
Dionne D’Amico, Sportsmemo.com, @1stladyofvegas
Raiders (2-7) at Broncos (3-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Broncos -2½, 41
Analysis: The Raiders had high hopes for this season, but after three straight losses dropped their record to 2-7, it is highly unlikely they will make the playoffs. But I feel this will take a lot of pressure off the team. One of the bright spots for the Raiders the last few years is that they have dominated Denver, winning seven of the last eight meetings, including the last three. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels certainly takes a lot of joy in beating the Broncos after he was tossed aside from the team in 2010. No matter how good the Denver defense is, it can’t compensate for an offense averaging a paltry 14.6 points per game. Eventually your stop unit is going to get overworked and tired. Look for the Raiders to take advantage of a spent Denver defense here and get a much-needed win while earning their coach a little bit of payback.
By the numbers: TheBroncos are 4-13 against the spread in their last 17 against AFC teams. … The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Denver.
Pick: Raiders 20, Broncos 16
Panthers (3-7) at Ravens (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -13, 42
Analysis: The Carolina offense switched to a ground attack that gave it success in a Week 10 win over Atlanta. However, the Panthers will have no success this week against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. Baker Mayfield will be back under center for the Panthers. But it really doesn’t matter who will be calling the plays for Carolina, as it won’t be able to keep pace on the scoreboard with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s fourth-ranked scoring offense (26.1 ppg). Look for the Ravens to decimate the Panthers on the ground, control the clock and get their fourth straight win and third consecutive cover.
By the numbers: The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six following a straight-up win. … Carolina is on a 1-6 spread slide on the road. … The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Pick: Ravens 34, Panthers 17
Browns (3-6) vs. Bills (6-3), at Detroit
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -7½, 49½
Analysis: If this contest would have been played at Buffalo in the snow, I would’ve leaned to Cleveland. But since the game was moved indoors to Detroit’s Ford Field, Bills QB Josh Allen can work his magic without issues from Mother Nature. The Browns have a powerful running attack with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But they have to face an angry Bills defense that has allowed a total of 53 points in back-to-back losses as Buffalo has slipped into a tie for second place in the AFC East with the Jets. I see Buffalo turning things around and getting back on track here.
By the numbers: The Bills are on a 6-2-2 cover streak following a straight-up loss. … Buffalo is 10-2-2 ATS against teams with a losing record.
Pick: Bills 28, Browns 17
Eagles (8-1) at Colts (4-5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -7, 46
Analysis: Normally, I would look to play a team like Philadelphia after it suffered its first loss of the season following eight straight victories. However, maybe there is some truth to the whispers that most of the Eagles’ success has been because they haven’t faced the highest level of opposition. With Eagles DT Jordan Davis sidelined, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is poised to have another performance like last week, when he rumbled for 147 rushing yards in a win over the Raiders. Giving interim coach Jeff Saturday’s rejuvenated Colts this many points is an early Christmas present.
By the numbers: The Eagles are 1-5 ATS on the road. … Philadelphia is on a 5-11 spread slide in November.
Pick: Eagles 24, Colts 20
Commanders (5-5) at Texans (1-7-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -3, 41
Analysis: Washington has won four of five while going 4-0-1 ATS, with its lone blemish a 20-17 loss to the Vikings that was a push ATS. Taylor Heinicke will be making his fifth start, and coach Ron Rivera has his team getting better with each contest. The Commanders are not flashy, but they do play solid football. Houston has the worst record in the NFL at 1-7-1. This is a team with very little talent, playing with no motivation, and a coach in Lovie Smith who hasn’t led a winning team in over a decade. The Texans pose almost no threat offensively. This line is short. Look for Washington to notch another victory and another cover.
By the numbers: The Commanders are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up win. … Washington is 4-1-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.
Pick: Commanders 24, Texans 20
Jets (6-3) at Patriots (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Patriots -3½, 38
Analysis: Since the beginning of October, the only blemish on the Jets’ record has been an Oct. 30 home loss to the Patriots. I know New England has dominated New York, winning 13 straight meetings, but the Patriots have offensive line issues, and the revenge factor will play a big part in Sunday’s game. The Jets enter this contest brimming with confidence after their 20-17 win over Buffalo. That carries over into this game. The line is 3½, and that hook is huge. This game is decided by a field goal.
By the numbers: The Jets are 4-0 ATS on the road. … New York is 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Patriots 20, Jets 17
Lions (3-6) at Giants (7-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -3, 45
Analysis: After five straight losses, Detroit has won two straight. Pump the brakes, guys. Those wins were against two struggling division foes in the Packers and Bears. The Lions rank at or near the bottom in just about every defensive category. They’re 31st in rushing defense, which will prove fatal against the Giants. You will see a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley and New York’s No. 3 rushing attack (164.8 ypg). They will control the time of possession and keep the Detroit defense on the field. When Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense is on the field, they will have a tough time against a Giants defense that’s holding opponents to only 19.2 ppg.
By the numbers: New York is 20-8-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. … The Giants are on a 4-1 cover run at home.
Pick: Giants 24, Lions 20
Rams (3-6) at Saints (3-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -2½, 39
Analysis: Both offenses have struggled in recent weeks. The Rams are now without WR Cooper Kupp, their biggest offensive threat. QB Matthew Stafford is set to make his return for Los Angeles behind an offensive line missing several starters. Without his favorite target, he might be in for a long day. The Saints are sticking with QB Andy Dalton, but his days are numbered, as he can’t move the chains. This is one of the toughest games on the board to handicap. Look to the under, as there won’t be much scoring.
By the numbers: The Rams are on a 4-0 under run on the road. … The Saints are on a 3-0 under streak.
Pick: Saints 17, Rams 16
Bears (3-7) at Falcons (4-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3, 49
Analysis: The only thing that can put an end to Chicago’s three-game losing streak is a game against the Falcons. If you recall, Atlanta was the most bankable team in the NFL through the first six games, going 6-0 ATS. The Falcons have shredded bettors since, failing to cover in their last four games. Both teams possess dual-threat quarterbacks and top-five rushing attacks. Neither defense has been able to stop anyone. One thing that stands out is the Bears exploding for 91 points in their last three games.
By the numbers: Chicago has covered the last four meetings. … The Falcons are on a 3-7 spread slide at home.
Pick: Bears 26, Falcons 24
Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Cowboys -1½, 48
Analysis: Winning in the NFL has a lot to do with momentum. There is no team hotter than the Vikings, who are riding a seven-game win streak. The Cowboys’ defense is getting headlines, but they have given up 60 points the last two games to the Bears and Packers. The Minnesota offense can and will exploit the Dallas defense. Coming off a big overtime win on the road in Buffalo will give the Vikings a boost here. Moreover, I don’t know if Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will bounce back from his two-interception outing in last week’s 31-28 overtime loss at Green Bay.
By the numbers: The underdog has covered the last five meetings. … The Cowboys are on a 1-5 ATS skid in November.
Pick: Vikings 24, Cowboys 23
Bengals (5-4) at Steelers (3-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Bengals -3½, 40
Analysis: This isn’t the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers offense we were so used to watching for decades. This version is eking out a mere 15.6 ppg. A common mistake made by sports bettors is judging a team based on the previous week’s performance. Pittsburgh beat New Orleans 20-10 last week at home, but the Bengals aren’t the Saints. The Steelers won the first meeting 23-20 on the road in OT, but these are two very different teams right now. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow leads the NFL’s sixth-ranked passing attack. He will dissect Pittsburgh’s 30th-ranked pass defense. Bengals RB Joe Mixon is coming off a five-TD performance against the Panthers. The 1-2 punch of Burrow and Mixon will be too much for the Steelers.
By the numbers: Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS on the road. … The Bengals are on a 10-2 spread streak against the AFC.
Pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 20
Chiefs (7-2) at Chargers (5-4)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Chiefs -5, 52½
Analysis: Injuries are really starting to pile up for Los Angeles, which has still managed to cover its last two games. Kansas City has its own health issues, but the Chiefs are a much deeper and more talented team than the Chargers. None of Los Angeles’ five victories this season have come against a team that currently has a winning record. Kansas City is starting to hit its stride. As long as Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has elite TE Travis Kelce at his disposal, the Chargers can’t trade scores with Kansas City. The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring (30.0 ppg) and have limited their last two foes to 17.0 ppg.
By the numbers: The Chargers are on an 0-3 ATS skid at home. … The Chiefs are on an 8-1 cover streak in Los Angeles.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Chargers 17
49ers (5-4) vs. Cardinals (4-6), at Mexico City
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: 49ers -8, 44
Analysis: Arizona QB Kyler Murray will be a game-time decision. But whether it’s Murray or Colt McCoy behind center, I can’t see San Francisco laying more than a TD. The Cardinals are coming off of arguably their best performance of the season in a 27-17 road win over the Rams. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo is playing well, and the Niners rank ninth in total offense (360.0 ypg). But they rank only 18th in scoring (22.0 ppg). While they can move the chains, they are just not punching it in the end zone. Laying more than a TD against a division rival that was won 11 of the last 14 meetings looks like a trap.
By the numbers: The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. … The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 27
