NFL betting breakdown: Week 3
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Chip Chirimbes, TheAplay.com, Chipwins.com, pickandparlays.net, VegasInsider.com
Cardinals (2-0) at Jaguars (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -8, 51½
Analysis: The Cardinals are flying high after their improbable 34-33 win over the Vikings last week, but might have trouble taking the lowly Jaguars seriously. Jacksonville had 189 total yards in last week’s 23-13 loss to Denver, scoring its lone TD on its first possession. The Jaguars have allowed 424 yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL, and Arizona averages 445 ypg, good for No. 2 in the NFL. But it’s the Jaguars’ time to bite.
By the numbers: Arizona is on a 3-8 ATS slide overall and 4-10 ATS as a favorite. … Jacksonville is on a 1-5 spread skid. … The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last six road games as favorites.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Cardinals 20
Colts (0-2) at Titans (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -5½, 48
Analysis: What a surprise that Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz is injured again, and the lame Colts most likely will start Jacob Eason in his place. Tennessee staged a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback in a 33-30 overtime win at Seattle that was led by Derrick Henry’s 182 yards rushing.
By the numbers: The Colts are 14-5 ATS in the past 19 meetings and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. … The Titans are 11-23-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. … The over is 13-3 in Tennessee’s last 16 home games.
Pick: Titans 24, Colts 23
Ravens (1-1) at Lions (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -8, 51
Analysis: The Ravens pulled off an upset win over the Chiefs on Sunday night with Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson again showing he’s one of the NFL’s best running backs. The Lions hung tough in the first half against Green Bay, showing they can move the ball. With the Ravens still banged up and riding high off their victory, I expect a small letdown.
By the numbers: Baltimore is 6-1 ATS as a favorite, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games and 11-5 ATS on the road. … The over is 13-3 in Detroit’s last 16 home games.
Pick: Lions 31, Ravens 30
Football Team (1-1) at Bills (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -7, 45½
Analysis: Buffalo QB Josh Allen has yet to play at last season’s high level. But the Bills’ defense has been outstanding, ranking second in the league in yards allowed at 234 per game. Washington’s defense carried it to the NFC East title last season, but it’s allowing 408 ypg, which ranks 25th in the league. Taylor Heinicke will make his third career start for the Football Team, and the Bills’ defense is too tough.
By the numbers: Washington is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. … The Football Team is on a 6-2 under run, and the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. … Buffalo is on a 10-3 cover streak.
Pick: Bills 27, Football Team 18
Saints (1-1) at Patriots (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Patriots -3, 42½
Analysis: The Saints stay on the road for the third straight week and are still practicing in Texas. New England had its way against Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson last week, but will face an experienced QB in Jameis Winston in this one. Winston has thrown for only 230 yards this season, which ranks last in the NFL. But the New Orleans defense ranks seventh, allowing 306 ypg, and it will turn the table on Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones.
By the numbers: The Saints are 22-7 ATS as underdogs and 38-17 ATS in their last 55 road games. … New England is on a 2-9-1 ATS slide after a win and 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite. … The Patriots are on a 9-1 under run, and the Saints are on a 6-0 under streak.
Pick: Saints 20, Patriots 19
Chargers (1-1) at Chiefs (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chiefs -7, 54½
Analysis: The Chargers can find more ways to lose than most NFL teams, as they had 12 penalties in last week’s loss to Dallas, including two that cost them touchdowns. Kansas City blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in its loss at Baltimore and allowed 251 yards rushing. Los Angeles ranks 23rd in rushing, averaging 93 yards per game, and will have trouble regrouping here.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS as road underdogs. … The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. … The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. … Los Angeles is on a 10-3 over run on the road.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Chargers 23
Falcons (0-2) at Giants (0-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -3, 47½
Analysis: New York running back Saquon Barkley has yet to show his previous form, and QB Daniel Jones leads the Giants in rushing. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw for 300 yards against Tampa Bay, but he threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. No such threat exists against the Giants.
By the numbers: The Giants are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. … The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. … The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings.
Pick: Falcons 23, Giants 20
Bears (1-1) at Browns (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Browns -7½, 45
Analysis: Bears fans will get their wish, as rookie QB Justin Fields makes his first NFL start. But the adage “be careful what you wish for” applies, as his first start is on the road. Browns QB Baker Mayfield has completed 81.6 percent of his passes for 534 yards, and Cleveland averages 30 points. Chicago is 31st in the NFL in passing (264 ypg) and 29th in scoring (17 ppg).
By the numbers: The Bears are 1-5 ATS on the road. … Chicago is on a 13-6 under run as road underdogs. … The Browns are 1-5 ATS at home.
Pick: Browns 24, Bears 13
Bengals (1-1) at Steelers (1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -3, 43
Analysis: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is hurting, and this might be the Bengals’ best chance in years to win at Pittsburgh. Even with first-round draft pick Najee Harris at running back, the Steelers are last in the league in rushing, averaging 57 yards. Cincinnati broke a 10-game losing streak to the Steelers late last season at home.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 1-4 ATS on the road. … The Steelers are 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings. … The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
Pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 23
Dolphins (1-1) at Raiders (2-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Raiders -3½, 44
Analysis: How ’bout them Raiders opening the season with impressive wins over the Ravens and Steelers. Miami can’t play much worse than it did in last week’s 35-0 loss to the Bills. The Dolphins will be without injury-prone QB Tua Tagovailoa and will start journeyman Jacoby Brissett, who is 12-20 as a starter. The price seems awfully cheap, and this leads me to believe that Miami will hang tough and the Raiders might be caught napping.
By the numbers: Miami is 12-5 ATS vs. the AFC and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. … The Raiders are 0-4 ATS as favorites. … The Raiders are on a 5-0 over run at home, and the over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.
Pick: Raiders 19, Dolphins 16
Jets (0-2) at Broncos (2-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -10½, 41½
Analysis: Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson had four of his first 10 passes intercepted in last week’s 25-6 loss to the Patriots. Denver has defeated two of the NFL’s weaker offensive teams in the Jaguars and Giants, allowing 13 points in each win. The Jets allowed four sacks and six tackles for a loss to New England, and it won’t get much better against Denver’s defense.
By the numbers: The Jets are 6-19-1 ATS on grass. … The Broncos are 34-16-1 ATS as favorites and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Pick: Broncos 20, Jets 9
Buccaneers (2-0) at Rams (2-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Bucs -1½, 55½
Analysis: The game of the day has the leading NFC favorites squaring off in Los Angeles, where Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady will play for the first time in his career. The Bucs have two home wins and will face a fierce Rams pass rush in their first road game, as well as an offense averaging 291 passing yards behind QB Matthew Stafford. The Rams will push Brady around.
By the numbers: The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS as home underdogs. … Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. … Tampa Bay is 21-6 ATS vs. the NFC.
Pick: Rams 27, Bucs 21
Seahawks (1-1) at Vikings (0-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -1½, 55
Analysis: The Vikings play their home opener after blowing two road games on the final play of each. Seattle has won six straight against Minnesota, including a 27-26 home win last season in which it scored with six seconds left. The Seahawks face the 49ers in their next game and might get caught peeking ahead.
By the numbers: Seattle is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite. … The Seahawks are on a 12-5 under streak as road favorites. … Minnesota is 18-7-1 ATS as home underdogs. … The home team is 6-2 ATS in the eight meetings.
Pick: Vikings 27, Seahawks 24
Packers (1-1) at 49ers (2-0)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: 49ers -3, 50
Analysis: If you think the Pack is back, think again. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers might be as great as ever, but the defense is soft and the Packers don’t have much of a running game, averaging 69.5 ypg. The Niners allowed only one TD, on a 91-yard play, in last week’s 17-11 win over the Eagles and have a healthy QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who is 26-8 as a starter.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in September. … The over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. … San Francisco is 5-20-1 ATS as a favorite and 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games.
Pick: 49ers 34, Packers 27
Eagles (1-1) at Cowboys (1-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Line/total: Cowboys -3½, 51½
Analysis: The Cowboys are still overrated. Dallas’ lucky win over the Chargers won’t help them, as the surprising Eagles will fly high in the Cowboys’ home opener. Dallas couldn’t take advantage of four turnovers in its 31-29 season-opening loss at Tampa Bay. But it did capitalize on 12 Los Angeles penalties in last week’s 20-17 win.
By the numbers: The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS as favorites and 1-5 ATS vs. the NFC East. … The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. … Dallas is on an 8-2 over streak at home.
Pick: Eagles 23, Cowboys 20
