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NFL betting breakdown: Week 3

BETTING BREAKDOWN

Chip Chirimbes, TheAplay.com, picksandparlays.net, VegasInsider.com

Raiders (0-2) at Titans (0-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Raiders -2, 45½

Analysis: Whichever team loses here will fall to 0-3 and face a tough task to get into the playoff hunt. The Raiders’ 4-0 preseason record gave false hope to most, while the Titans seem to have lost their running game. At 0-2, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr now states that adjusting to Josh McDaniels’ system hasn’t been as smooth as he had hoped after blowing a 20-0 lead to Arizona while scoring just three points in the second half. Could see the Raiders dropping another close one.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 5-1 against the spread at Tennessee. … The Titans are 3-12 ATS after playing on “Monday Night Football.” … Tennessee is 4-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.

Pick: Titans 27, Raiders 26

Ravens (1-1) at Patriots (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -2½, 44½

Analysis: If you keep betting against Patriots QB Mac Jones, you will pay. The Ravens’ collapse against Miami, in which they blew a 35-14 fourth-quarter lead, will linger. The difference here is New England’s defense is ranked No. 4 and allows only 275.0 yards per game, while Baltimore is last in the league, surrendering 463.5 ypg. Aside from Lamar Jackson, Baltimore has little run game to speak of.

By the numbers: The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. … The Ravens are riding a 12-4 under run on the road. … The Patriots are on a 6-0 over streak at home.

Pick: Patriots 23, Ravens 17

Bills (2-0) at Dolphins (2-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -5, 53

Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa is proving Miami right about drafting him out of Alabama and has the Dolphins believing they can win with their new faces. But the Bills might just be the best team out there. You will have to catch them on a bad day to beat them. There should be lots of points in this one, as Tagovailoa and Josh Allen will keep the ball in the air. Miami can surprise here with Buffalo coming off a rout of Tennessee on “Monday Night Football.”

By the numbers: The over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. … Buffalo is on a 10-2-1 over run on grass. … Miami is 6-1 ATS at home and 9-2-1 ATS overall.

Pick: Dolphins 36, Bills 33

Bengals (0-2) at Jets (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -6, 45½

Analysis: Break up the Jets. New York’s miracle comeback win over the Browns has it ready to take off. The Bengals’ revamped offensive line still can’t protect Joe Burrow, and the Jets’ defense has improved enough to cause problems for Cincinnati. The Super Bowl hangover affects the loser, and the Bengals are a great example.

By the numbers: Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS at the Jets. … The Bengals are 14-6 ATS after a straight-up loss. … The Jets are 1-5 ATS after a straight-up win. … The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Pick: Jets 30, Bengals 26

Saints (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -2½, 41

Analysis: The Panthers have to rely on their defense, as they just don’t move the ball on offense. The best thing Carolina has going for it Sunday is that the Saints have a turnover machine in QB Jameis Winston. The Panthers are allowing just 310.0 ypg and look to post their first win with Baker Mayfield at QB. Don’t see much scoring here.

By the numbers: The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. … The under is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings at Carolina. … New Orleans is riding a 38-15 cover streak on the road. … The Panthers are mired in spread slides of 6-19-1 at home and 2-14 overall.

Pick: Panthers 23, Saints 17

Lions (1-1) at Vikings (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -6, 52

Analysis: This should be bounceback city for Minnesota after it was dominated by the Eagles in a 24-7 loss on Monday night. The Lions are 2-0 ATS but will return to reality here as Vikings QB Kirk “You like that?” Cousins takes advantage of the NFL’s No. 30 defense (425.5 ypga).

By the numbers: The under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota. … The Vikings are 4-1 ATS at home. … Detroit is 7-1 ATS vs. the NFC.

Pick: Vikings 41, Lions 31

Chiefs (2-0) at Colts (0-1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chiefs -5½, 51

Analysis: Has anybody been more disappointing than the Colts? They are repeating their scenario from last season by losing games that they are expected to win. Indianapolis was picked by most to win the weak AFC South. But now they‘re in a must-win situation after failing to win their first two games as favorites and getting shut out 24-0 last week by the Jaguars. The Colts must run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and prevail or their playoff hopes look dim.

By the numbers: The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings. … The Chiefs are on a 2-7 ATS skid vs. teams with losing records. … Indianapolis is on a 21-10 cover streak vs. teams with winning records.

Pick: Colts 23, Chiefs 22

Eagles (2-0) at Commanders (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -6½, 47½

Analysis: The Eagles are flying after dominating the Vikings on “Monday Night Football” and are the favorites to win the NFC East. But now they must contend with their longtime division rivals. Playing at Washington will present its problems, as the home team and underdog are each 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Philadelphia closed last season with two wins over Washington in Weeks 15 and 17. But now it’s payback time for the Commanders.

By the numbers: Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass. … The Commanders are on a 4-1 ATS run at home.

Pick: Commanders 27, Eagles 23

Texans (0-1-1) at Bears (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bears -2½, 39

Analysis: The Texans must be a little better than most believe, but I still can’t remember who their top player is. I know it’s not Deshaun Watson. Houston’s offense ranks No. 30 (266.5 ypg), and its defense is No. 31 (433.5 ypga). Then again, the Bears are dead last on offense, averaging only 216 ypg. If you bet this game, you’ll get what you deserve.

By the numbers: Chicago is on a 4-10 ATS slide. … The Texans are on a 5-1 spread surge.

Pick: Texans 20, Bears 19

Jaguars (1-1) at Chargers (1-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chargers -3, 42½

Analysis: Not only did Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence have his best day as a pro, but Jacksonville’s defense recorded a shutout in last week’s 24-0 win over the Colts. The Chargers, as usual, blew a chance to win at Kansas City on “Thursday Night Football.” QB Justin Herbert is hurting and questionable for this game, which is why the line dropped from -7 to -3. Los Angeles needs to reboot. But it’s difficult to know if Herbert can execute or if the team will turn to backup Chase Daniel.

By the numbers: The Jaguars are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings. … Jacksonville is on 2-8 spread slide overall. … The Chargers are 7-3 ATS after a straight-up loss.

Pick: Chargers 37, Jaguars 29

Packers (1-1) at Buccaneers (2-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Buccaneers -1, 42

Analysis: A QB matchup for the ages. Really. The relaxed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers bounced back from a season-opening loss at Minnesota by beating up the Bears 27-10 on Sunday night. Tampa Bay’s defense continues to dominate and allows only 276.0 ypg. Green Bay averages 376.0 ypg, while the Buccaneers’ meager offense averages 303.5 ypg. Without suspended wide receiver Mike Evans, Tampa Bay’s offense will be even more restricted. But QB Tom Brady, home-field advantage and a stout defense should make the difference for the Bucs.

By the numbers: Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings. … The Packers are on a 9-3 under run on grass, and the Bucs are on an 8-3 under streak on grass. … Tampa Bay is on an 11-3 cover run at home.

Pick: Bucs 23, Packers 19

Falcons (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -1, 42

Analysis: I don’t expect Seattle to win more than three or four games this season, but this should be one of them. Led by QB Geno Smith, how can they go wrong? The Falcons (2-0 ATS) are now led by Marcus Mariota, so that about evens out the QBs. The Seahawks have averaged only 234.5 ypg against Denver and San Francisco. But they should find the going a little easier against the Falcons.

By the numbers: The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. … Seattle is 5-2 ATS at home. … The Seahawks are 39-18-4 ATS after a straight-up loss.

Pick: Seattle 25, Falcons 19

Rams (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -3½, 48½

Analysis: The Cardinals are flying high after overcoming a 20-0 halftime deficit in a comeback win over the Raiders. They return home to face a Rams team that has shown some flaws in getting crushed by the Bills in the NFL season opener and almost blowing a 28-3 lead in last week’s win over Atlanta. Arizona played with a whole different attitude in the second half last week at Allegiant Stadium; let’s see if it can bring it again. L.A.’s offense is averaging only 290.0 ypg, and its defense has fallen to the bottom half of the league as the Rams are still in a Super Bowl fog.

By the numbers: The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 7-0 ATS at Arizona. … The Cardinals are on a six-game losing streak at home.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 23

49ers (1-1) at Broncos (1-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: 49ers -1½, 44

Analysis: I like 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. But he’s in trouble here. Broncos QB Russell Wilson has seen better days and the Denver crowd is letting him hear it for his subpar performance after he signed a five-year, $245 million contract extension. But he’ll come to play in this one, and so will the Broncos’ No. 3 defense (243.5 ypga).

By the numbers: Denver is 0-4 ATS after a straight-up win. … The Niners are on a 5-0 under run, and the Broncos are on a 10-3 under streak.

Pick: Broncos 23, 49ers 20

Cowboys (1-1) at Giants (2-0)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Giants -1, 39

Analysis: It’s hard to believe that the Giants are better at QB with Daniel Jones than Dallas, no matter who the Cowboys start. That said, New York ranks No. 31 in passing yards with 159.0 per game. But the Giants have been running the ball well with a healthy Saquon Barkley. Dallas just doesn’t have the firepower anymore that’s needed to win in the NFL.

By the numbers: The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 20-7 ATS vs. the NFC East. … The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS at home. … New York is on an 11-1 under run after a straight-up win and riding a 19-7-1 under streak at home.

Pick: Giants 22, Cowboys 17

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