NFL betting breakdown: Week 6
Chip Chirimbes, Chipwins.com, Picksandparlays.net, Vegasinsider.com
Bears (4-1) at Panthers (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Panthers -1½, 44½
Analysis: The Bears opened with three wins before splitting their last two games and getting outgained in both. Rookie coach Matt Rhule has guided the Panthers to three straight outright wins as underdogs. Carolina quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been a great surprise, completing 73 percent of his passes while helping the Panthers average 399.6 yards per game, which ranks sixth in the NFL.
By the numbers: Chicago is on a 5-12 ATS slide overall and 2-8 on the road. … The underdog is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings. … The Bears are on a 17-4 under streak on grass.
Pick: Panthers 27, Bears 16
Lions (1-3) at Jaguars (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -3, 54½
Analysis: I’m not a Matt fan, Patricia or Stafford. I’m fading Stafford, who is one of the NFL’s biggest imposters. The quarterback is in his 12th season, and we are still waiting for him to “arrive.” The Lions have lost 12 of their last 13 games, with their only win by three points, and now they’re favored by 3. Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew will shine here.
By the numbers: Detroit is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite and 3-12 ATS in its past 15 games overall. … The Lions are on a 10-4 under surge as road favorites.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Lions 20
Falcons (0-5) at Vikings (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -4, 54
Analysis: These two are a combined 1-9, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find a winner here. The Falcons start a new regime under Raheem Morris, Atlanta’s defensive coordinator, after coach Dan Quinn was fired. The Falcons are 31st in total defense and scoring defense under Morris. His reward for such ineptitude is to be promoted to head coach. But Minnesota will be without NFL leading rusher Dalvin Cook, and QB Kirk Cousins can’t pick up the slack.
By the numbers: The Falcons are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs, and the underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. … The Vikings are 38-17-1 ATS at home.
Pick: Falcons 30, Vikings 27
Texans (1-4) at Titans (4-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -3½, 53½
Analysis: The Titans responded to 23 positive COVID-19 tests and only one practice in 12 days by crushing the Bills in a 42-16 win Tuesday. Houston posted its first win without Bill O’Brien, as it can be nothing but better without him as coach. Now the Texans must find a way to contain QB Ryan Tannehill, who is 13-4 in 17 starts with the Titans. Tennessee should have a bit of a letdown here.
By the numbers: Houston is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. … The Texans are 4-13 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. … Tennessee is 15-33-3 ATS vs. losing teams. … The Titans are on an 8-2 over run as favorites and 9-4 over surge vs. the AFC.
Pick: Texans 30, Titans 27
Washington (1-4) at Giants (0-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -3, 43
Analysis: Here’s another combined 1-9 matchup. Isn’t there a quality control thing somewhere? The Football Team was bogged down with 38 yards rushing in last week’s 30-10 loss to the Rams, and New York is eighth in total defense, allowing 343 yards per game. I always laugh when a winless team is favored, and here are the Giants in that role, though New York is on a 5-0 ATS run against teams with a losing record.
By the numbers: The Giants are 6-19-1 ATS at home and on an 8-2 over streak as favorites. … Washington is 8-3 ATS after a double-digit loss. … The under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in New York.
Pick: Washington 23, Giants 19
Browns (4-1) at Steelers (4-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -3½, 51
Analysis: Maybe the Browns are for real after their dominant win over the Colts put them in a different light. Big Ben and the Steelers are back in top form, and the 38-year-old quarterback doesn’t have time to play around after returning from an injury that cost him most of last season. This must be a different Browns team, as the trends in this rivalry have them buried again.
By the numbers: Cleveland is 18-39 ATS as an underdog, including 1-7 ATS in its last eight. … The Browns are 7-23-2 ATS against teams with winning records. … Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS at home.
Pick: Steelers 30, Browns 20
Ravens (4-1) at Eagles (1-3-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -9½, 46½
Analysis: Baltimore has a habit of beating up on the little guys, as it did in last week’s 27-3 win over the Bengals. Philadelphia is riddled with injuries and leads the league in giveaways with 11. The Ravens have the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 15.2 points per game, and the Eagles can’t run. But I expect something unexplainable to happen.
By the numbers: Philadelphia is 5-12 as a home underdog and 1-7 in its last eight at home. … The Eagles are on a 19-7 under streak at home. … Baltimore is riding cover streaks of 6-1 and 12-4.
Pick: Eagles 27, Ravens 23
Bengals (1-3-1) at Colts (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Colts -7½, 46½
Analysis: After Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers threw a pick-six and took an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a safety in last week’s loss to Cleveland, Colts coach Frank Reich had to reassert that ‘Philip is our quarterback.’ At $25 million, I hope so. Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS, and there is promise in Joe Burrow. This is a tough call, as the Bengals should show up after getting beat up on the road by the Ravens. But they’ll struggle to run the ball, as the Colts get back on track at home.
By the numbers: Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS as a home favorite and 7-3-1 ATS after a loss. … The Colts are on a 16-6 under streak after a loss. … The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Indianapolis.
Pick: Colts 37, Bengals 27
Broncos (1-3) at Patriots (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Patriots -9, 45
Analysis: Too many questions about practices and schedule changes in this once iconic AFC matchup. Even having played the Jets, Denver’s offense is ranked 29th. The Patriots have had extended time to prepare and are looking to grind it out to bounce back from their loss at Kansas City.
By the numbers: The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. … The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Pick: Patriots 23, Broncos 17
Jets (0-5) at Dolphins (2-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -9, 47
Analysis: A year ago this week, Miami reportedly moved on from Ryan Fitzpatrick and started Josh Rosen. Now Rosen isn’t on an NFL roster and “Fitzmagic” is again the starter, with rookie Tua Tagovailoa on the sideline. The veteran quarterback will face one of his seven former teams in the Jets, who might go winless. New York ranks 31st in total offense (279.4 ypg) and last in scoring offense (15 ppg). The Jets are 30th in scoring defense, allowing 32.2 ppg.
By the numbers: New York is 17-35-4 ATS in its last 56 games as a road underdog. … Miami is 23-48-3 ATS when hosting a team with a losing record. … The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 16
Packers (4-0) at Buccaneers (3-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Pick, 55
Analysis: A quarterback matchup for the ages. It’s been said that 43-year-old Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady is lacking the zip on the ball he once possessed. There’s no such storyline for Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, who leads the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (38 ppg) and No. 2 total offense (445.5 ypg). But the Buccaneers have the league’s No. 2 total defense (298.2 ypga). We will learn more about Brady — if he remembers where he is, what quarter it is and what down it is.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. winning teams. … Before Brady arrived, Tampa Bay was 0-5-1 ATS vs. winning teams and 1-6-1 ATS as underdogs.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Packers 24
Rams (4-1) at 49ers (2-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Rams -3, 51½
Analysis: San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to play at the level that was expected of him when he was traded from the Patriots. The Niners’ two wins are against the Jets and Giants, who are a combined 0-10, and it’s unknown if they can beat any team that isn’t from New York. Injuries have hurt San Francisco, but if it can get ready for anyone, it would be a favorite from Los Angeles. The Rams have played well, with their loss at Buffalo, where they erased a 28-3 deficit before losing in the final seconds.
By the numbers: The Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and are riding a 13-5-1 cover streak as favorites. … The Niners are 5-1 ATS as underdogs. … Los Angeles is on a 10-2 under run as a favorite.
Pick: 49ers 23, Rams 21
Chiefs (4-1) at Bills (4-1)
Time: 2 p.m. Monday, KVVU-5
Line/total: Chiefs -4½, 57½
Analysis: The gambling world realized Tuesday that the Bills are not infallible after they were beaten by the Titans, and the Chiefs also joined the mortals after the Raiders upset them in Kansas City. It’s difficult to read the schedule changes and missed practices, but I think Buffalo gained more in its loss than Kansas City did. With home cardboard cutouts for support, the edge goes to Buffalo.
By the numbers: The Chiefs are 10-2-1 ATS on the road. … The road team has covered seven of the last nine meetings. … The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records. … Buffalo has a 4-0-1 over-under record this season.
Pick: Bills 37, Chiefs 35
Cardinals (3-2) at Cowboys (2-3)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Cardinals -1, 55
Analysis: The Andy Dalton era as Cowboys quarterback begins. The Cowboys are No. 1 in total offense, averaging 488 yards per game. But that won’t matter if Dallas’ defense continues to struggle. The Cowboys are 27th in total defense, allowing 404.4 yards per game, and last in scoring defense, allowing 36 ppg. Look for running back Ezekiel Elliott to be the focus of the refreshed Dallas offense.
By the numbers: Arizona is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games but 2-5 ATS as a favorite. … The Cardinals have gone under in all five games this season. … Dallas is on a 4-0 over streak. … The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs, but are on an 8-20 ATS slide vs. teams with a winning record. … Dallas and the Jets are the only two teams with an 0-5 ATS record.
Pick: Cowboys 34, Cardinals 23
