NFL conference title betting trends: Edges for both games

By Bruce Marshall Special to the Review-Journal

10 months ago

Detroit Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) reacts after catching a pass for a first down in front of ... — Detroit Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) reacts after catching a pass for a first down in front of guard Graham Glasgow (60) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) and cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) during the first half of an NFL football NFC divisional playoff game, Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Jose Juarez)

Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is an analyst at VegasInsider.com. He provides the Review-Journal with NFL tech notes and trends. Follow @VegasInsider on X.

Sunday’s matchups

Chiefs at Ravens (-4, 44½): The teams haven’t met since September 2021. Kansas City, playing in its sixth straight AFC title game, was 3-2 straight-up and against the spread in the previous five. This season, the Chiefs have won and covered four straight and are 5-3-1 ATS on the road. Baltimore is on a 6-2 ATS run, though only 3-3 ATS in its last six at home. Kansas City is on a 10-4-1 under run. Edge: Under and slight to Chiefs.

Lions at 49ers (-7, 51½): The teams also haven’t met since September 2021. San Francisco, playing in its fourth NFC title game in five seasons, was 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the previous three. Detroit is 13-6 ATS this season and 22-7 ATS dating to last season. The Lions are on an 8-1 ATS run as underdogs and an 11-3 ATS run on the road. The 49ers are on an 0-6 ATS skid at home. Detroit is on an 8-3 over run. Edge: Lions and over.

Overall conference title trends

— Home teams are on a 16-4 SU, 13-7 ATS run.

— Since the 1970 merger, 64 of 106 games have been decided by double digits, 47 by 14 points or more.

— Last four games have gone under.