NFL Week 13 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Lou Finocchiaro, @GambLou, GambLou.com

Titans (3-8) at Commanders (7-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Commanders -6½, 44½

Analysis: The Titans just defeated division rival Houston on the road and will face AFC South foe Jacksonville next week. Sandwiched between is this tilt in windy Washington, D.C., where the Commanders look to snap a three-game losing skid. The key to this game revolves around whether the adroit Washington offense can find against the Titans’ defense, ranked 10th by DVOA (defense-adjusted over average).

Pick: Commanders 29, Titans 16

Chargers (7-4) at Falcons (6-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chargers -1½, 47½

Analysis: The Chargers face a road game on a short week after the high emotion of this year’s Har’bowl loss to the Ravens on Monday night in Los Angeles. This is a challenging spot for the Chargers as this trip to Atlanta precedes a visit to division rival Kansas City next week. The Falcons, fighting for the division lead, have lost their last two but they score at home. They’re also coming off their bye and taking on a depleted, tired Charger team. In a spot play, take Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons 28, Chargers 19

Bengals (4-7) at Steelers (8-3)

Time: 10 a.m., CBS

Line/total: Bengals -3, 47½

Analysis: An AFC North contest where the Bengals must find some way to salvage their playoff hopes by defeating division leader Pittsburgh. The Steelers are finding balance on offense with Russell Wilson under center and their defense is top-10 in DVOA. Can the Bengals outscore the Steelers and overcome their 26th-ranked defense? Maybe.

Pick: Bengals 21, Steelers 20

Colts (5-7) at Patriots (3-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -3, 42½

Analysis: The Colts are a balanced team on both sides of the ball, but their lack of quarterback aptitude has put tremendous pressure on a defense that plays with significant effort. The Patriots lack talent but are fighting for first-year coach Jerod Mayo. New England’s offense and defense rank near the bottom of the NFL and any success the team has had comes from coaching and scheme.

Pick: Colts 23, Patriots 19

Texans (7-5) at Jaguars (2-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -4, 44

Analysis: Jacksonville’s swoon this season has been sudden and complete. Injuries and ineptitude have burdened this team since Week 1 and that’s without mentioning the dubious execution at quarterback. Unfortunately, it gets worse on the other side of the ball. The Jaguars sport a defense ranked last by DVOA standards. The division-leading Texans have a dubious history on the road in Jacksonville. Houston’s issues revolve around an offensive line that’s barely NFL-caliber. This will be an ugly low-scoring division game.

Pick: Texans 18, Jaguars 13

Cardinals (6-5) at Vikings (9-2)

Time: 10 a.m., Fox

Line/total: Vikings -3½, 45

Analysis: Minnesota is a quiet 9-2 thus far this season. The Vikings are doing it with fine coaching, excellent quarterback play and a defense that’s ranked second against the pass and first against the run. The Cardinals enter this game tied for the lead in the NFC West. Their success is spearheaded by coach of the year candidate Jonathan Gannon, resurgent quarterback Kyler Murray and an offense that is balanced and explosive. This may be the most entertaining game of the day.

Pick: Vikings 25, Cardinals 23

Seahawks (6-5) at Jets (3-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -1, 42½

Analysis: The Jets are in the bottom third of the NFL in passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense and rushing defense. Their special teams are ranked 27th. Overall, the Jets face institutional challenges similar to those in Chicago and Dallas. The Seahawks are led by a brilliant young first-year coach in Mike Macdonald, who has them tied for first place in the NFC West. Two ships passing in the night.

Pick: Seahawks 19, Jets 11

Buccaneers (5-6) at Panthers (3-8)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -6, 46

Analysis: The Panthers are experiencing a resurgence with quarterback Bryce Young back under center as they’ve won two of their last three. Carolina has nowhere to go but up and it’s clear the team is responding to Young’s return. For the Buccaneers, the division title is well within their sights as they sit only one game back of NFC South leader Atlanta. The Tampa Bay offense matches up well against this porous Panthers defense. This is a contest that highlights the Buccaneers’ offensive prowess under quarterback Baker Mayfield. I’ll take Tampa Bay.

Pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 20

Rams (5-6) at Saints (4-7)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -3, 49

Analysis: The Rams travel to New Orleans just one game out of the division lead. The Rams’ offense matches up well with a shoddy Saints rush defense currently ranked 31st in the league. The New Orleans offense is similarly set up to find success running the football against the Rams’ 22nd-ranked rush defense. The run sets up big-play ability for each team in what appears to be a potential track meet.

Pick: Rams 31, Saints 29

Eagles (9-2) at Ravens (8-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS

Line/total: Ravens -3, 51½

Analysis: In a potential Super Bowl matchup, the Eagles travel to Baltimore after beating the Rams in Los Angeles last week. In the Ravens, however, the fifth-ranked Philadelphia defense will face the NFL’s top-ranked passing and rushing offense. The matchup the Eagles must exploit is the 19th-ranked Baltimore pass defense. But they’ll have to earn success without starting wide receiver DeVonta Smith in what figures to be 15-mph winds. Wind won’t bother the NFL’s top-ranked rushing and passing team.

Pick: Ravens 29, Eagles 20

49ers (5-6) at Bills (9-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

Line/total: Bills -7, 44

Analysis: The 49ers overcame a net 20-day rest disadvantage last season to make it to the Super Bowl. Trying to navigate a 22-day net rest disadvantage this year, coupled with all those games last season, has this San Francisco team weak-kneed and wobbly. The offense has been hit with injuries and the defensive personnel is different from last season. While the 49ers swoon, belief is as high as the Adirondacks in Buffalo, where quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills’ newfound running game is producing a newfound toughness from this bunch.

Pick: Bills 27, Niners 17

Browns (3-8) at Broncos (7-5)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Broncos -5½, 42

Analysis: Denver coach Sean Payton has proven he understands how to develop quarterbacks despite the fact that most pundits gave the Broncos little chance to compete this season. Not only are they competing, but rookie quarterback Bo Nix has improved each game and shown himself to be an effective leader. The Broncos also have one of the NFL’s best four defenses. The Browns have a history of disaster in Denver beginning with “The Fumble” in 1988 (a game I was in attendance for). Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston’s attitude is exemplary, but his play is inconsistent.

Pick: Broncos 19, Browns 15