NFL Week 6 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Joe D’Amico, @JoeDamicoWins, SportsMemo.com

Patriots (1-4) at Raiders (2-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -3, 41

Analysis: Following New England’s embarrassing 34-0 home loss last week to the Saints, which dropped its record to 1-4 straight-up and against the spread, whispers about coach Bill Belichick being overrated started circulating. The Raiders beat the Patriots 30-24 and covered in last year’s matchup at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders’ 17-13 home win over Green Bay on Monday might be their brightest moment of the season. This matchup of inconsistent teams is tough to handicap. But it comes down to coaching for me. Sorry Las Vegans, but “The Hoodie” wins hands down.

Pick: Patriots 20, Raiders 17

Ravens (3-2) vs. Titans (2-3), at London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Ravens -4½, 41½

Analysis: The Titans have lost six straight away from home, including all three this season. Their once-feared run defense got slashed for 193 yards in last week’s 23-16 road loss to the Colts, ending Tennessee’s 10-game streak of holding opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s fourth-ranked rushing offense will exploit the Titans’ cracks. The Ravens arrived in England early and are no strangers to traveling, playing their third consecutive game away from home. Expect a tight matchup here, as Baltimore takes advantage of some unhealthy key Titans defenders.

Pick: Ravens 21, Titans 17

Commanders (2-3) at Falcons (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -2½, 42

Analysis: The Commanders showed promise, starting the season 2-0 to keep coach Ron Rivera’s seat cool. But they have since dropped three straight as their once-respected defense has gotten shredded for 111 points, and Rivera’s seat is now scalding. They head to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that is 3-0 at home. Atlanta ranks 10th in scoring defense, allowing only 19.2 points per game. Throw in the fact that maturing quarterback Desmond Ridder is unbeaten at home in his college and NFL career as a starter, and laying under a field goal is a gift.

Pick: Falcons 27, Commanders 21

Vikings (1-4) at Bears (1-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3, 44

Analysis: This game looks like a trap to me. Chicago comes off its first win in nearly a year and returns home to Soldier Field with a few days extra rest to face a hated division rival. However, last season’s most overvalued team just might be this season’s most undervalued team. Minnesota possesses the NFL’s second-ranked passing offense. The absence of Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is negated by the injury to Chicago running back Khalil Herbert. Don’t fall for the trap.

Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 21

Seahawks (3-1) at Bengals (2-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -3, 45½

Analysis: This matchup is one of the toughest on the card to predict. Bengals QB Joe Burrow looked healthier last week, when he turned in his most impressive performance this season. The Seahawks have won and covered their last three games while averaging 32.6 ppg. This might come down to which team has the ball last. Too tough to call. But one thing’s for sure. There will be lots of scoring.

Pick: Bengals 27, Seahawks 24

49ers (5-0) at Browns (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: 49ers -9½, 35½

Analysis: This line opened as low as San Francisco -3 with a total of 38½. After the 49ers crushed the Cowboys and Browns QB Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the game, the line soared as high as 10. In a matchup of two of the league’s best defenses, you would expect a slow-moving contest, especially with Cleveland’s offense led by a backup QB in P.J. Walker. Too many points here to lay on the 49ers.

Pick: 49ers 27, Browns 20

Saints (3-2) at Texans (2-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -1½, 42½

Analysis: Saints QB Derek Carr has certainly been less than impressive. Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has exceeded all expectations thus far. But the Saints’ defense is one of the strongest he’s had to face. Historically, New Orleans tends to ease off the gas after a big win such as last week’s 34-0 rout of New England. Houston is on a three-game cover streak and has faced stronger opposition. I see a very tight game here. The last 10 Saints games have gone under the total, and the Texans have gone under in two straight. The under is money.

Pick: Saints 17, Texans 16

Colts (3-2) at Jaguars (3-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -4, 44½

Analysis: Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson is out, but dismissing backup Gardner Minshew would be a costly error. He’s a capable backup who spent two seasons with the Jaguars and knows them well. Also, running back Jonathan Taylor is expected to have more touches in his second game back for Indianapolis. The division rivals are tied atop the AFC South at 3-2. The Colts lost their season opener 31-21 to Jacksonville. But the Jaguars are coming off a huge win over the Bills last week in London and are due for a letdown. They’re 0-2 ATS at home this season. The Colts have covered three of their last four, including both road games. Jacksonville is in a sandwich spot after traveling back from England and having to travel again to New Orleans for “Thursday Night Football.”

Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 21

Panthers (0-5) at Dolphins (4-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -14, 47½

Analysis: Anytime I have to lay double digits in the NFL, let alone two TDs, I am uncomfortable, even against the league’s only winless team in the Panthers. Miami’s leading rusher, De’Von Achane, was placed on injured reserve. But backup Raheem Mostert can step in without a hitch. Carolina has yet to cover this season while being outscored by 10.3 ppg. The Dolphins bounced back from their 48-20 setback at Buffalo with a 31-16 home win last week over the Giants. Miami is still riding a 7-1 cover streak. But tread lightly here with Miami, which has a road trip to Philadelphia on deck.

Pick: Dolphins 38, Panthers 24

Lions (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Lions -3½, 42½

Analysis: A battle between NFC division leaders. I am not ashamed to admit that I have drunk the blue Kool-Aid. The Lions whipped the Panthers 42-24 last week while cruising to a cover as 9½-point favorites. On paper, Detroit is the play here. But football isn’t played on paper. The Buccaneers have won and covered three of their four games and enter this matchup well-rested off a bye. They also have won and covered the last two meetings with the Lions. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in scoring defense, allowing only 17.0 ppg, and fifth in takeaways with 10.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Lions 23

Cardinals (1-4) at Rams (2-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -7, 48

Analysis: The Cardinals covered their first three games before losing and failing to cover their last two. The Rams might be the league’s best team with a losing record. They have won and covered eight of the last 10 meetings with Arizona, which will be without running back James Conner. Look for Los Angeles star receiver Cooper Kupp to be a major factor in his second game back from injury against the Cardinals’ porous pass defense. The Rams are one of my highest-rated plays on the board.

Pick: Rams 34, Cardinals 20

Eagles (5-0) at Jets (2-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Eagles -7, 41½

Analysis: One of the NFL’s only two undefeated teams, Philadelphia is truly scary. Why? Because we still haven’t seen their A game. New York has a stellar rushing attack behind running back Breece Hall. But the Eagles counter with the league’s No. 1 run defense. Jets QB Zach Wilson and New York’s NFL-worst passing offense is in real trouble here. Philadelphia has been money on the road this season, going 3-0 ATS.

Pick: Eagles 35, Jets 13

Giants (1-4) at Bills (3-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Bills -15½, 44½

Analysis: Giants coach Brian Daboll returns to Buffalo to face a Bills offense he helped build. Buffalo returns to the U.S. after a loss to Jacksonville in London. Despite the travel issues, we would normally look to favor the stronger home team here. But the Bills will be without linebacker Matt Milano a week after they lost defensive back Tre’Davious White. New York is banged-up as well and will be without QB Daniel Jones. But this is still too many points to lay.

Pick: Bills 27, Giants 14

Cowboys (3-2) at Chargers (2-2)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

Line/total: Cowboys -2, 51½

Analysis: The Chargers have won back-to-back games, are coming off a bye week, expect running back Austin Ekeler to return to action and are getting points at home. That makes Los Angeles a very enticing play. But in life, sometimes things are too good to be true. That is the case here. Getting Dallas seeking redemption after last week’s demoralizing 42-10 loss at San Francisco is a huge betting angle. For that reason alone, I would back the Cowboys. But the fact that they’re 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss seals it.

Pick: Cowboys 27, Chargers, 24