NFL win total best bets: Books to root hard for this former contender
Sportsbooks rooted against the Patriots with a passion during their 20-year run of unparalleled success behind quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick.
That script has now been flipped. New England begins the post-Belichick era with the NFL’s lowest season win total (4½ or 5, depending on the book) and the team’s lowest in 31 years.
“We’ll be big New England fans this fall,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “The book is really going to be rooting for the Patriots to go over five wins. There is a lot of money on the under.”
Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw put his money on New England to go under five wins (-155 at South Point) after it finished 4-13 last season and replaced Belichick with first-year coach Jerod Mayo.
The Patriots also parted ways with top pass rusher Matthew Judon and will start journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett over 2024 third overall pick Drake Maye.
“It’s their first year without Belichick. They have a rookie quarterback. Their offensive line is terrible. They lost Judon. They really have no deep threat offensively,” Whitelaw said. “They look dismal this year.”
New England under 4½ wins is +110 at BetMGM.
Here is a glance at some of Whitelaw’s other season win total wagers:
Lions over 10½, -130 at SuperBook
Detroit has its highest season win total ever after finishing 12-5 last year and earning its first playoff wins since 1991. Whitelaw believes it’s still not high enough.
“They have one of the best offensive lines in football and the team really has jelled for this coach (Dan Campbell),” Whitelaw said. “I look for another very good year for them.”
Packers under 10, -110 at SuperBook
Green Bay has been a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl after an impressive finish last season. Same thing goes for quarterback Jordan Love when it comes to NFL MVP.
Whitelaw, however, is pumping the breaks.
“The Packers have a very, very tough schedule and everything fell into place for Love last year,” he said. “I’m not sold that he’s a great quarterback.”
Bears over 8½, -165 at Circa, BetMGM
Whitelaw said he rates Chicago and Green Bay about the same.
“That’s why I have the Bears as an over and Green Bay as an under,” he said.
Chicago added first overall pick Caleb Williams at quarterback and ninth overall pick Rome Odunze, a Bishop Gorman product, at wideout in the draft. The Bears also brought in former Chargers receiver Keenan Allen.
“I’m not wild about the quarterback, but they have a very good defense,” Whitelaw said. “They’ve got great receivers, a good offensive line and a good running game. As long as Williams doesn’t screw things up, the Bears look very good.
“Also, in the NFC, they get the extra home game.”
Dolphins over 9½, -134 at Boyd Gaming
Miami went 9-8 in coach Mike McDaniel’s first season in 2022 and jumped to 11-6 last year.
“The Dolphins have improved themselves,” Whitelaw said. “They won more than this number last year.”
Broncos over 5½, -145 at BetMGM
Whitelaw wagered on Denver to go under its win total at first, but changed his mind when rookie first-round pick Bo Nix was named the team’s starting quarterback.
“I got off my under and went over on Denver because I thought Zach Wilson was going to be the starter and I think he stinks,” Whitelaw said. “Bo Nix looked outstanding in the preseason and so did Denver. I like their coach (Sean Payton) and I like Bo Nix.”
Seahawks over 7½, -158 at Boyd Gaming
Seattle is coming off of back-to-back 9-8 seasons.
“I look at the schedule, then I make the numbers based on that,” Whitelaw said. “The numbers just dictated it.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.