‘Not a team in single digits’: College basketball betting wide open
After an improbable Final Four last season that featured a No. 4 seed (Connecticut), two 5 seeds (San Diego State, Miami) and a 9 seed (Florida Atlantic), the road to the 2024 NCAA men’s basketball championship figures to be just as wide open.
Kansas is the consensus favorite at Las Vegas sportsbooks and is the co-favorite at 12-1 at Caesars Sportsbook with Duke, Kentucky and Michigan State.
“There’s not a team in single digits,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “This is shaping up to be a great college basketball season. There are so many teams that can contend for the title.”
The season starts Monday with more than 100 games on the betting board.
All of the top contenders also have double-digit odds at Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook, where defending champion UConn and Purdue are tied for the 18-1 fifth choice.
The Boilermakers, who return national player of the year Zach Edey, joined Virginia in 2018 as the only No. 1 seeds to lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament when they were stunned in March by No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson.
The Cavaliers won it all the next season, and bettors at Caesars are banking on Purdue to do the same thing.
“As teams people think of as contenders, Purdue is our biggest liability,” Pullen said. “They have Zach Edey and a solid roster. We’ll see if they can do what Virginia did.
“It’s all about who gets hot at the right time. Purdue’s loss was shocking. You’ve just got to be playing and peaking at the right time.”
Kansas is the largest liability at BetMGM, where it leads in tickets and money wagered to win the title. Michigan State and Duke are next in tickets and money at the book.
The Jayhawks and Spartans also are two of the most popular bets at the SuperBook.
“We’ve been writing a lot on Michigan State,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Every day you look at the ticker and you always see a Michigan State bet. Literally every day. They’re supposed to have one of their better teams they’ve had in years.
“Duke’s supposed to be good this year, but they’re young. It’s the usual suspects.”
Bettors are also backing Florida Atlantic, which is 50-1 to win the title.
“That’s because of what they saw last year,” Salmons said. “They should be good again.”
Two of the biggest liabilities at Station Casinos are Gonzaga and Creighton at 25-1 apiece. The Bluejays made it to the Elite Eight last season.
“Creighton has a lot of kids returning and new recruits coming in,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “There is tremendous value on Creighton. I thought that last season they didn’t start playing well until the end of the season.”
With more than 350 NCAA Division I teams, Pullen said college basketball is the hardest sport to book.
“It’s hard to keep track of them all. It’s a tough sport to book, especially in November and December, until we get to conference play,” he said. “There are so many games, and you don’t have the casual bettor yet. They’re involved more with football.
“We’re battling sophisticated players more early in the college season.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.