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Odds against Trevor Lawrence winning NFL Offensive Rookie of Year

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, is the clear favorite to be named the Offensive Rookie of the Year. But history isn’t on his side.

The top overall pick has won the award only three times in the last 39 years: Kyler Murray in 2019, Cam Newton in 2011 and Sam Bradford in 2010.

Lawrence is +275 at BetMGM and +220 at William Hill and Station Casinos sportsbooks. He’s followed by quarterbacks Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones at +650 and Trey Lance at +750 at William Hill.

Wilson is 10-1 and Jones 11-1 at Station.

“Lawrence and Wilson are two locks to start out of the gate, with Fields in that mix, too,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “But there are longer odds for Lance and Mac Jones to start because both of their teams have got veteran quarterbacks there.”

Station has taken early action on Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, tied for the 6-1 second choice with Fields. Pitts is 10-1 at William Hill.

“Pitts goes to an ideal situation, to a team that has two of the best wideouts in the league in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley,” Esposito said. “He’ll be a mismatch underneath and a big target in the red zone as well. He could flourish in that Atlanta scheme.”

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has been the most popular pick at William Hill, where his odds have dropped from 20-1 to 10-1. Harris is 18-1 at Station.

“There’s twice as many tickets on him compared to anyone else early on,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “(James) Conner is no longer in Pittsburgh, so it looks like it’s going to be Harris’ show there. He’s going to get plenty of opportunities, so I can see why they’re betting Harris.”

Three wideouts also are in the mix, with Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase at 9-1 at Station and Miami’s Jaylen Waddle and Philadelphia’s DeVonta Smith at 15-1.

For a value pick, Esposito suggests Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams at 30-1.

“Denver has got a really good defense if they’re back healthy with (Bradley) Chubb, and they have young offensive weapons in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant,” he said. “If they happen to have Aaron Rodgers behind center, it makes that team really different.”

Defensive Rookie of Year

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is the 6-1 favorite at William Hill to be named the Defensive Rookie of the Year. He’s followed by Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye and Cleveland Browns linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at 8-1.

Raiders safety Trevon Moehrig is the 20-1 11th choice at William Hill and 25-1 at BetMGM.

Three cornerbacks are in the mix in Denver’s Patrick Surtain II (10-1), Tennessee’s Caleb Farley (12-1) and Carolina’s Jaycee Horn (14-1).

“Edge rushers are more high profile, but if a corner steps up and plays, I think one would have a good shot at winning Defensive Rookie of the Year,” Bogdanovich said. “I think corner is the second-hardest position in football behind quarterback. If Horn or Surtain II steps up and has a really good year, they should win the award.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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