Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for Travers Stakes — ‘Midsummer Derby’
Michael Kipness, aka “The Wizard,” a professional handicapper since 1986, analyzes the eight-horse field for Saturday’s Travers Stakes, aka the “Midsummer Derby,” designating each horse as a contender or a pretender.
Visit wizardraceandsports.com for selections, in-depth analysis and wagering strategies for all 14 races Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.
Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:
1. Thorpedo Anna, Brian Hernandez Jr., 3-1
The lone filly tackling the boys, and why not? She would have been 1-5 to win the Alabama in a small field, which wouldn’t have done nearly as much to enhance her resume than if she were to win the Travers. She’s a perfect example that you don’t have to pay a lot of money at the sales to land a good horse. This $40,000 yearling buy has won six of her seven starts, including three straight Grade 1s in decisive fashion. Her quality, superb tactical speed and drawing post 1, which only ensures a ground-saving trip before making her move, are all factors that make her dangerous to win the Travers. This is not a stellar field of 3-year-old males. But to win, she must travel 1¼ miles for the first time, and it’s still a major test defeating the opposite sex. Contender.
2. Sierra Leone, Flavien Prat, 7-2
He has clearly underachieved by trainer Chad Brown’s standards, beaten as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes and last time out in the Jim Dandy. But on closer inspection, he ran very well in defeat both times. In the Belmont at Saratoga, Prat was aboard for the first time. Sierra Leone is not an easy horse to ride, as he tends to drift in late, which he did that afternoon. He also stumbled at the start, putting him far back early. In the Jim Dandy, he was beaten by a length while racing along the rail, which was not the place to be, in a race in which Fierceness had a tactical advantage racing on the better part of the track. In the Travers, Sierra Leone will likely get a quick and contested pace to close into, at a distance I feel he will handle successfully. It’s important that Prat has now ridden him twice, so he’s gotten familiar with when to time his move and how to navigate him through the stretch to help minimize his quirkiness late. Contender.
3. Unmatched Wisdom, Irad Ortiz Jr., 8-1
The stablemate of Sierra Leone, both trained by Brown, is undefeated in three starts, with all three wins showing good speed throughout. But he lacks seasoning for this race, and I don’t feel he’s got the quality to win the Travers. Pretender.
4. Corporate Power, Javier Castellano, 15-1
Finished one length behind Unmatched Wisdom last time out, but it was a career-best effort. He’s tactical, on the improve, and is bred to like 1¼ miles. If there’s any long shot with a chance to upset the field, this colt fits the bill. Contender.
5. Batten Down, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
He’s 1-for-1 at the Travers distance, but that was his maiden win. He will be a pace factor early on, but he’s clearly overmatched. Pretender.
6. Honor Marie, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
He has not won in 2024 and has not shown any improvement in his last two starts after running a good second in the Louisiana Derby. This one-run deep closer adds blinkers for the first time and the hot-riding Gaffalione. That’s not enough to consider him a win candidate, even though it’s not out of the realm that he can round out the trifecta at big odds. Pretender.
7. Dornoch, Luis Saez, 5-2
He’s genuine and has been installed a deserving favorite based on his very game win in the Belmont and, just as impressive, winning the Haskell. In both races, he faced stiff pressure racing on the rail the entire way and refused to wilt late. He wants to be on the lead or right on top of it early on. The obstacle Dornoch must overcome in the Travers is that there’s speed to his inside, and Fierceness with a similar running style right to his outside. The question is what tactics Saez will employ not to get hung out too wide early on, and how this colt will react to what could be intense pressure from the start. He’s certainly a major player here, but could be vulnerable based on the pace dynamics. Contender.
8. Fierceness, John Velazquez, 3-1
Jekyll and Hyde. The best version of Fierceness can certainly win the Travers, but the worst version can also place him off the board. Whenever he’s won, the next start is a huge disappointment. Last time out in the Jim Dandy, he sat a perfect trip on the best part of the track and prevailed by a quickly diminishing length to the oncoming Sierra Leone. He likes to race on or near the lead from the start. The outside draw does him no favors. Of the four betting favorites, Fierceness is the one I like least and is a bet-against. Pretender.