Patriots’ downfall — on field and for bettors — dates to loss to Raiders
The Patriots’ downward spiral from a playoff team in 2021 to the dregs of the NFL can be traced to the lateral last season that lifted the Raiders to a miracle win and cover over New England.
The Patriots were 7-6 when Chandler Jones snatched an unnecessary lateral by then-New England receiver Jakobi Meyers out of the air and returned it for a touchdown on the final play to give the Raiders (-2½) a shocking 30-24 triumph Dec. 18.
The Patriots have lost seven of their nine games since that bizarre ending while going 1-8 against the spread. New England is 1-4 straight-up and ATS this season and was outscored 72-3 by the Saints and Cowboys the last two weeks in the worst two losses of Bill Belichick’s coaching career.
The Raiders (2-3, 2-3 ATS), who beat the Packers 17-13 on Monday night and covered as 1½-point favorites, are 3-point favorites over the Patriots in Sunday’s rematch at Allegiant Stadium.
“We’ve been all over the place on this game between 2½ and 3½,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “Wiseguys are on the Raiders -2½ and the Patriots +3½. We’re at 3 right now. It’s really pretty even on the game.”
BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook need the Raiders for a small decision as of Friday.
“The majority of action, although not too heavy at this point, has been on the Patriots and under,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said.
Bettors are all over the under at BetMGM, where the total is one of the lowest on the board at 41½.
“Tickets are 15-1 in favor of the under, and money is 10-1 in favor of the under,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said.
The Patriots are last in the league in scoring at 11.0 points per game, and the Raiders are tied for 30th in scoring (15.8 ppg). Both teams are 4-1 to the under.
“Offense has been at a premium for these teams so far,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “You can make a case that the Patriots are the worst offensive team in the league right now. They haven’t been able to muster anything the last two weeks.”
Bettors are backing the Raiders at Station Casinos, where the tickets are in favor of the home team by a 3-1 margin.
“It looks like we will be Patriots fans when the game kicks off,” Esposito said.
The Raiders are -3 (even) at the Westgate SuperBook, -3 (-101) at Station and -3 (-105) at Circa Sports. The Patriots, who lost 34-0 at home to New Orleans last week and 38-3 at Dallas the week before, are +130 on the money line.
“It’s a big game for both of these teams. A win by the Raiders would get them back to .500 and get them into the wild-card discussion,” Esposito said. “The Patriots just need to get on track.”
Raiders coach Josh McDaniels, the former longtime Patriots offensive coordinator, is 2-0 against Belichick, who has an 18-20 all-time record against coaches who were formerly his assistants and players. Remove players from the equation, and Belichick is on a 3-8 slide against former assistants.
McDaniels guided the Broncos to a 20-17 overtime win over Belichick’s Patriots in 2009 before beating him again last season on the lateral.
“It’s so strange to see the Patriots like this,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “But at some point, it has to happen. They can’t be good for 30 consecutive years.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.