Preakness bettors have to find way to beat Authentic
Horse racing’s Triple Crown season comes to an end Saturday with … the Preakness Stakes? In October?
The annual classic series for 3-year-olds is set to be completed at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The Preakness is normally the second leg of the Triple Crown in May, with all interest focused on whether the Kentucky Derby winner can prevail again and set up a run for the crown at the Belmont Stakes.
If the Derby winner doesn’t win the Preakness, then public interest in the Belmont is greatly diminished with no Triple Crown at stake. Now the Preakness is in that role this year after Belmont winner Tiz the Law didn’t take the Derby on Sept. 5.
All that’s left is the betting.
Kentucky Derby winner Authentic is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Preakness, followed by Art Collector (5-2), the filly Swiss Skydiver (6-1) and Thousand Words (6-1). The rest of the 11-horse field is 12-1 or worse.
Circa risk supervisor Paul Zilm said bettors couldn’t help but be impressed with Authentic after he went to the lead in the Derby, then put away Tiz the Law in the stretch.
“Authentic’s Derby performance was a big surprise,” Zilm said. “I didn’t think he was good enough to win, to go that distance. … Authentic went straight to the front and never relinquished it. The others just couldn’t catch him. Tiz the Law had every chance.”
Now Authentic, trained by Bob Baffert, is rightly favored in the Preakness, Zilm said, with Tiz the Law skipping the Preakness to prepare for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Handicapper Brian Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on KSHP-AM 1400, said he is backing Art Collector, who was the second choice in the Derby (behind Tiz the Law but ahead of Authentic) before having to withdraw with a foot injury.
That cost Blessing a 34-1 Derby futures ticket, and “now I get a chance to back Art Collector at 2-1,” he said.
Blessing has Art Collector and Authentic clearly better than the rest of the field, but he’s not discounting the others.
“Tiz the Law was supposed to be head and shoulders ahead of everyone in the Derby,” Blessing said. “It’s still a horse race.”
For exotics, he said he is looking at Max Player (15-1), the best closer in the field.
Blessing is also looking at Thousand Words, who was scratched from the Derby after he flipped over while leaving the paddock. Blessing said he played Thousand Words, also trained by Baffert, instead of Authentic in the Derby.
Zilm said Baffert’s pedigree makes Thousand Words a horse to watch.
“If Thousand Words wins tomorrow,” Zilm said, “I’ll look at whoever I’m sitting next to and say, ‘I can’t believe I didn’t play the other Baffert.’”
Circa is offering fixed odds on the race, not pari-mutuel. Its odds differ slightly from the morning line, with Authentic at +175, followed by Art Collector (+260), Thousand Words (+710) and Swiss Skydiver (+725).
Zilm reflected on a crazy Triple Crown season of jumbled races and later dates amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“I’m glad we had something,” he said. “But I don’t ever want to do this again.”
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.