Prop bettors prefer ‘over’ and ‘yes,’ especially with Chiefs
Bookmakers are used to hearing “over” and “yes” from bettors when it comes to Super Bowl props, especially when a high-powered offense such as Kansas City’s is in the game.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are obvious targets, but so are secondary Chiefs receivers Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins.
BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said the action is all one way on props involving those players for Sunday’s Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida.
“We’re seeing a lot of money certainly for Kansas City skill players overs — Mahomes yards, the receivers over yards,” he said. “We’re not writing many bets for unders.”
BetMGM has Mahomes at 329½ passing yards (over -130) and receiving yards at 97½ for Kelce, 94½ for Hill (over -125), 36½ for Watkins and 29½ for Hardman.
Hill’s performance in the teams’ regular-season meeting certainly won’t have recreational bettors looking to bet the under. He caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City’s 27-24 win over the Buccaneers on Nov. 29, including seven catches for 203 yards and two TDs in the first quarter.
Scott said he expects Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to come up with a game plan to at least limit Hill.
“I’m wondering whether it’s Kelce or Hardman who gets the extra balls?” Scott said.
Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said the sportsbook is getting hit “with what you’d expect to get hit on.”
“Everyone to score a TD, missed extra point yes, yes 2-point conversion attempt, Mahomes over TD passes,” he said via text message.
Mahomes over 2½ TD passes is -120 at the Westgate. There are alternate lines for 1½ (over -380), 2 (over -215) and 3 (under -240).
Bettors even backed the Chiefs’ rushing attack at the Westgate. A prop on which team will have more rushing yards moved from Chiefs +14½ all the way to +4½. It was back to +7½ on Wednesday.
The individual rushing props are another matter. Scott said BetMGM wasn’t seeing a lot of action for the running backs with both teams mostly using a committee approach in the backfield.
For the Chiefs, BetMGM has Darrel Williams at 28½ (under -125) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 26½ (over -140). The Bucs’ Leonard Fournette is at 50½ (under -120).
Edwards-Helaire had six carries for 7 yards in the AFC championship game after missing the previous three games with hip and ankle injuries.
“Edwards-Helaire really hasn’t come back to where he was before he got injured,” Scott said. “He was carrying the load. His line was 60, 70 (yards) most weeks.”
Williams rushed for 78 and 52 yards in the Chiefs’ playoff victories.
Besides the individual props, Circa Sports is offering a prop on whether any skill players will pass certain yardage thresholds — 400 for quarterbacks (yes +210), 100 for running backs (yes +375) and 200 for receivers (yes +450).
“It doesn’t usually sound that hard to achieve, but if you look at this game, it’s going to be tough for anybody to get 100 yards rushing,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said.
The most memorable prop moment in last year’s Super Bowl came when Mahomes lost 15 yards on three deep kneel-downs at the end of the game. That moved his rushing yardage total from 43 to 28 and turned all the bettors who bet the over (ranging from 36½ to 30½) from winners to losers.
Mahomes’ rushing total is 22 this year at Circa.
Circa does not have a rushing total for Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, but it is offering a prop that takes kneel-downs off the table for him. The sportsbook simply asks if Brady will have a rushing attempt for greater than zero yards (yes -150), so one successful sneak wins even if he kneels down to end his seventh Super Bowl victory Sunday.
Brady’s rushing total is a half-yard (under -170) at the Westgate.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.