Sharp bettors back UFC fighters at Sphere, not interested in Canelo
Mexican fighters will be featured and celebrated Saturday on Mexico’s Independence Day weekend in a UFC card at Sphere and a Canelo Alvarez boxing match at T-Mobile Arena.
But there is scant betting interest on Alvarez, a prohibitive -2,000 favorite over Edward Berlanga (10-1), at the Westgate SuperBook.
“It’s the worst action I’ve seen on a Canelo fight,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “It’s a combination of no one’s excited about the matchup and you also have UFC at the Sphere on the same night.”
Murray said there has been a lot of betting interest, including sharp action, on UFC 306, aka Riyadh Season Noche UFC.
The only match on the 10-fight card that doesn’t include a fighter with Mexican heritage is the main event between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.
The favorite has flipped in the UFC bantamweight title fight. Dvalishvili opened as a -140 favorite before sharp action on O’Malley has made him the -132 favorite at the SuperBook to successfully defend his title. Dvalishvili is the +112 underdog.
“The O’Malley price has moved a ton. We’re going to need Dvalishvili in that one,” Murray said. “We’ve taken a lot of action on Sean O’Malley. You have to call it sharp because look how much the market has moved.”
Professional handicapper Lou Finocchiaro said the main event is a matchup of contrasting styles.
“Dvalishvili is a short, sawed-off wrestler with unrelenting, forward pressure, and he’s going to come at you for five days, let alone five rounds. He will not run out of gas,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “They fight in the big cage in the Sphere, and that helps O’Malley. It gives him more room to maneuver to avoid the wrestling advances of Dvalishvili.
“If this is a quick fight, O’Malley knocks him out. If it’s a long fight, Dvalishvili wins by decision.”
Finocchiaro doesn’t have a play on the main event, but he did recommend three best bets on the card:
Ortega (+155) over Lopes
Murray said the SuperBook took sharp money on Brian Ortega over Diego Lopes at +160 and +150. Finocchiaro also made Ortega, now +155, one of his top plays.
This matchup was originally slated for UFC 303, but a drastic weight cut forced Ortega off the card on the day of the fight.
“Fast-forward to (Friday), and Ortega looked great. It’s a totally different environment for this fight,” Finocchiaro said. “The first fight, Ortega opened -155, and by the time it was canceled, Lopes was a -130 favorite. Right now, Lopes is -180, and the take-back on Ortega is +155. The tax on Lopes has gotten too high.
“This is an insult to Ortega. He has no excuses. We’re going to get his best effort. These are two Mexican heritage fighters, so this should be a real classic.”
Grasso (-135) over Shevchenko
Finocchiaro said Valentina Shevchenko was the best female UFC fighter of all time up until about three years ago. But he’s backing Alexa Grasso to win the third fight of a trilogy in which Grasso won the first meeting by submission and retained her flyweight title following a split draw in their second match.
“Shevchenko is 36 now, and Grasso, a Mexican fighting in front of her people on Noche, is 31 years old,” he said. “She has really slick power boxing, and she’s hurt Shevchenko in both of the fights.”
Chairez (+205) over Van
Finocchiaro is also backing Edgar Chairez as a +205 underdog over Joshua Van on the undercard.
“Van is more well-rounded. Chairez is a Mexican power striker,” he said. “Van was brutally knocked out two months ago, and I think he is rushing back into this fight, even though he’s favored.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.