Super Bowl props that sportsbooks worry about most

As Super Bowl XLI between the Bears and Colts kicked off in 2007, Esposito was doing a final check at the Caesars Palace sportsbook when Chicago returner Devin Hester caught the ball at the 8-yard line.

“And it literally sounded like a jet was taking off from the book because the crowd started to erupt and get louder and louder and louder,” said Esposito, now the Red Rock Resort sportsbook director. “As I looked up, I see Hester making a move on the kicker and running down the sideline.”

Hester brought back the opening kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown, though the Bears eventually lost to Peyton Manning and the Colts 29-17. But as Esposito recalled, that play was a boon for bettors.

Not only did the defensive/special teams touchdown prop bet cash, but Hester was in most sportsbooks’ indexes to score the first touchdown of the game along with an anytime touchdown.

“You were probably approaching a very high six-figure number — maybe even seven figures — industry wide when you looked at those three combinations,” Esposito said. “The industry was in a hole 30 seconds in. That really stands out to me.”

Regardless of who is playing in the Super Bowl, a handful of prop bets are always popular with the betting public and this year is no different.

In no particular order, they are:

— Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?

— Will there be a successful two-point conversion?

— Will the game go into overtime?

— Will there be a safety in the game?

“Those are the props where you’re going to build up the most liability as a house,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “All those are really popular. Everybody understands them, even people that don’t really follow football. They know what a safety is or what it means for the game to go to overtime. And they like big pluses.

“All those things are stuff that the books are going to be rooting against on Sunday, for sure.”

Entering Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and Eagles, there have been 14 special-teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl. That includes Super Bowl XXXV in 2001 when Ron Dixon of the Giants and Baltimore’s Jermaine Lewis had back-to-back kickoff returns for scores.

There also have been 21 defensive touchdowns, including a record three interception returns by Tampa Bay against the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.

The SuperBook’s “Will there be a special teams or defensive TD?” prop lists yes at +270, while Station Casinos is +220.

Since the two-point attempt was added to the NFL in 1994, teams are 10-for-22 in the Super Bowl. The last successful try came in 2017 when the Patriots’ Danny Amendola caught a pass from Tom Brady to tie the game in the final minute against the Falcons in Super Bowl LI.

The Raiders missed all three of their attempts against the Buccaneers in 2003.

The SuperBook is offering +240 on a successful two-point conversion, and Station is at +205.

That Patriots-Falcons game is the only Super Bowl to need overtime, and Murray said his book got “crushed” on that outcome. The SuperBook has 9-1 odds the Chiefs-Eagles game will go to OT, and Station is at 7-1.

Safeties also are rare, with nine occurring in Super Bowl history. But bettors can’t forget seeing safeties in three straight games from 2012 to 2014, the last of which came in Super Bowl XLVIII when the ball was snapped past Manning and recovered in the end zone by Denver running back Knowshon Moreno on the first play from scrimmage.

There hasn’t been a safety in a Super Bowl since, and the SuperBook priced its prop at 8-1. Station is 7-1 that there will be a safety.

“The prices are so juicy,” Esposito said. “I think for a small investment in a game that maybe you don’t have a preference on one of the two teams but you’re going to have a handful of props bet, why not take a flier on some of these big-plus prices?”

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.