Super Bowl rematches often work out for loser of 1st game

Plenty of Super Bowls have been rematches of games from the regular season, but there’s never been one like this one.

Not only are Kansas City and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers meeting again after the Chiefs’ 27-24 victory in Week 12, they’re playing at the same site, the Bucs’ home stadium in Tampa, Florida.

The betting market also views the games similarly. Kansas City was a 3½-point favorite in the first game and is a consensus 3-point favorite Sunday.

But don’t bank on the Super Bowl playing out like the first meeting, bookmakers warn.

“In football, it just can change so much from one meeting to the next,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said.

The history of the Super Bowl certainly bears that out. There have been 13 previous rematches from the regular season in the title game, and the team that lost the first game is 7-6 straight-up (6-6-1 against the spread) in the Super Bowl.

Five of those rematch winners were underdogs, including massive upsets by the New England Patriots (+14) for the 2001 title against the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Giants (+12) against the Patriots for the 2007 crown.

The Rams pushed as 7-point favorites in a 23-16 victory over the Tennessee Titans for the 1999 title after losing 24-21 in the regular season.

One team that probably deserves an asterisk is the 1993 Dallas Cowboys. They lost 13-10 to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 amid a holdout from star running back Emmitt Smith, but ended up successfully defending their crown with a 30-13 victory over the Bills in the Super Bowl. Smith was the MVP.

The first game between the Chiefs and Buccaneers was marked by a career day from Kansas City receiver Tyreek Hill, who caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter as the Chiefs built a 17-0 lead.

Kansas City led 20-7 at halftime, but the Buccaneers ended up earning the backdoor cover with two Mike Evans TD catches in the fourth quarter.

“Tampa made a comeback and made it close, but Kansas City controlled the clock for 37 minutes,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “So really it wasn’t as close as the score in that first game.”

Bennett said he looks at how teams performed against other good teams in general.

“I definitely don’t want to overweight that one previous meeting,” he said. “Just look at Bucs-Saints (in the divisional playoffs). The Bucs went and won the playoff game in New Orleans (30-20) when the last game they got thoroughly dominated and lost 38-3.”

The Buccaneers also beat the Green Bay Packers 31-26 on the road in the NFC championship game after beating them 38-10 in Tampa in the regular season. The Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17 in Buffalo during the regular season, then defeated them 38-24 in Kansas City in the AFC title game.

BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said he won’t put much stock in the first Chiefs-Buccaneers game because of Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s ability to make adjustments, especially with two weeks to prepare.

“I don’t think he’ll line up the same way as he did last time,” Scott said. “History has proven that he doesn’t.”

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.